Member Info for guessworx

how low can this go?

from what i can see there is going to be no immediate turning point in this conflict and if shorters target 80p, only sentiment of disbelief is keeping this afloat intraday.

at what price would you top up? and where do you seeing this bottoming out?

Is this a general trend for UK banks or does Barc have large exposure with Russia, Oligarch's or other financial institutions who are exposed?

Can those who think a RI will come explain why? Why do you think profits will be lower than during the pandemic where flights were grounded?
It looks like the SP can go below 100p v.soon but where will it find intrinsic support?

no body brave enough to make predictions?

New variants were always possible, and with each country working independently it would only make sense yoyo travel lockdowns/testing measures would persist, though I had expected the regulatory swings to dampen faster and not persist through 2022 as now seems likely. (May have been a different outcome in UK if Bojo and MPs had second jobs/friends in the airline industry as not ppe testing .. lol).

As far as I can see this variant is more transmissible and current vaccines are less effective, so the travel measure may ease early next year if the winter doesn't by itself overload the nhs; or longer term new vaccines may emerge late 2022.

On the back of the new testing requirement and red list addition(s), I think it could fall as far as 110p.
Then if mothing changes in several months (without sp recovery, vaccine ineffectiveness or new variants), an undefended rights issues rumour would bring us down as far as 75p.

What are your SP top and bottom thoughts? Have you given up on seeing 200p even after recovery 2022/2023?

dyor and this is not advise :)

Opinions were divided a couple of months back while the RI speculation took centre stage. Some people felt sure it would be past 200p by end of year and others said it would go down below 140p.
What do we all think now?

@nige - not a great day on IAG but i added in the 145 area so im good for now. the diff is that iag will return with time as my best guess for now, but bt is harder to be optimistic about.

forgot to mention, there's also no big shorts either, ..it simply out of favour because it makes no money and has limited prospects of doing so. bye bye to solid dividends.
Notice how this seems to be the fate of companies named British , Royal or Imperial.

the best we can hope for is a takeover / buyout at the low SP and hope the new owners inject energy capable of turning this stock around. In the pandemic i topped up in the low 100p area but was mindful it could get to the lows i already stated. I hoped post covid it would peak back to 250p but true to form its just a company of poor performance once again.

I see 50p to 80p as a very real prospect. If you look at past highs you can see it's a slow motion train wreck run by staff without care of shareholders or their own business, and the same goes for the regulator who think they own OR despite alterative tech growing rapidly.
(If it went to 250p I would be happier but I fear those days are gone and we are once again heading to a new low where it will remain).

how long before we get to sub 100p?

At this rate I should be able to pick up stock at 85p early next year .. lol
Especially the if they loose more contracts and give a poor dividend.
All management staff only go to work to collect salary and pension and operate BT as a zombie company. I liken them to the local councils except the local council has the government paying the bills.
Let there be a take over and fire the entire management from the CEO down!
Poor pensioners will never recover SP from what was once considered a stable strong dividend paying stock.
If you think it will ever reach highs of yesteryear then you are in zombie mode too!
[dyor.. not advice]

... following my last post ... dyor and not advice as always ...
.... but what do you all think ?

no plans to sell here. cant see major bad news, or RI rumours that will lead to another out of control down spiral. furlough staff adjustments against new revenue lag will maybe dent the move but wont be so deep .. max 140s .. be ready to buy the dips and wait for year. for now i see only good news overall in that timescale.

Was yesterday to today just a shake up for another move up?
- Citadel seem to be the only ones shorting (~£4m).

thoughts?
- end of furlough without exemption?
- rally correction?
- shorting?
long term 200p+ but what about short term?

SP 300-400p long term... is it even viable ?

some factors/thoughts :
- pre-covid leisure travel levels will eventually return and possible within a few years.
- but pre-covid business travel may have a long lasting downturn buy upto 20% .
- cargo flights have helped and may continue into the future though in a limited fashion.
- IAG may find opportunity in short haul flights again and capture it by expansion or buy out.
- re-instatement of dividends but without dilution to fund it.
- what is the future of fuel costs and green drive

In the best case, if they manage to capitalise on this pandemic and come out leaner, stronger and more diversified, ...they may return to strong profits longer term and have done enough to compensate worries of the huge debt pile. If so then the old SP highs could still be alive!

So will you still exit on this bounce or do you think it makes sense to hold long term and wait for old highs to return?

(dyor . imo. not advise)

I would hope they only raise money with a RI if they have other assets they want to buy. A RI just to pay dividends or service debt would not go down well imo.