Member Info for guessworx

Looks like i'm right on track prediction wise. My only worry is that I haven't been bearish enough.

What's the bottom price and why in 3 sentences or less pls :)

My prediction is starting to come through :) but is my bottom range too bearish?

What SP are you waiting for?
Answers with no more than 2 lines only pls.
(If like Fug you cant give a straight reply then pls don't post on this)

@Ted @ Fug - thanks for the input . my only comment is over two years 400p does looks bold for reasons of dilution, a change in work patterns etc.
Fug, if you absolutely had to commit to a bottom and top range over the next 1 full year what would your best guesstimate be? (nobody will hold you to because it doesn't seem to fit your trading style but i'm just curious of your thoughts).

@Fug - lol .. no offence intended. Do you have a target buy price range that would see us good post pandemic?
and/or if your day /short term trading, then where would you say the market will bottom out over the next 12months before recovery?
Given their size and the brunt of the pandemic is passing, it seems unlikely the sp can fall dramatically under 140 else the upside for others (buyouts, new investor dilution etc.) is too sweat a deal?

@Fug - 10p really? - is this to be shorted into insolvency?
@ Teddy - whats your exit price and where would you see this bottoming too?
@ Trading places - whats you re-entry price?
Should RI cut their losses while they can or will there be more than a dead cat bounce to come?

@Fugazi - in laymen terms is it possible to explain the 'gap' to me? cheers

@fugazi1 - can you tell me your reasons for 150 sp and timescales? I do consider it possible but think its less likely considering the number of ducks that need to be put in a row.

@big_blue - no one with a good mind actually pays any attention to your ramblings. Infact, some here have told me to ignore you completely. I cant be bothered to counter your comments especially when you cant see the bigger pictures. As I once told you, please stop replying to my posts and keep this forum healthy.

@david_williams - not sure if you and the others are being sarcastic but I think you shouldn't panic unless you cannot hold for the longer term. Post pandemic sp will be lower than pre-pandemic but still higher than this level. If you can buy into the dips and spread you money to allow for 160ish bottom you will be just fine imo. dyor

@bald_eagle
Agreed about the pressure but this also the banks own agenda.
A legal argument is being constructed to not have to repay the 50k loans on the basis of the lockdown lasting too long etc., and for now the legal opinion is that this has merit. Even if the govt extends the interest/repayment times it will still end in potential disaster when the companies eventually say they cannot or won't pay. Apart from the govt backed loans many of these companies also have existing business loans from their banks. So when the govt loans eventually default it will cause those many many companies to go into liquidation/administration forcing the banks to realise their own loan losses too.

As I maintain, and have been mocked for on this forum, I wouldn't be surprised if barc fell back to 160 and below. Especially if barc management try to further line their own performance linked bonus pockets using the share buyback mechanism instead of rewarding shareholder with reasonable divs and not 1p jokes.

For those who laughed at my predictions and reasons, look where we are ! LOL

Putting those people to the side where do you see the next major support level and why?

I still think we can go into the low 160s and will keep that in mind whilst buying the dip down from here.

if we know anything from history, barc often fined and found short of compliance or bad business practices. I have heard that some of the banks are covering up the extend of bad debt, and keeping their balance sheet looking good, by continuingly extending loan repayment dates etc. They already know the debts are unserviceable but want to avoid crystallising that knowledge by writing them off. last quarter this year or first quarter 2022 will bring this to a head and traders like me try to stay at least 1 quarter ahead. imo/dyor

lol... and i was insulted just over a month ago when I said this could go down as far as 160 and now others are predicting the same! having said that i think 170-180 range is more likely since many destination countries will have better jab stats. however, i'm planning to keep the shares for 2+ years so by then it will make a strong recovery if 1. they can keep losses down short/medium term 2. they take to opportunity to buy up other distressed airlines.

Looks like my targets prices and reasons are coming through now despite the naysayers! Still maintain the bottom end could be as far as 165 with 175 very possible. Ill be re-entering sub 185 depending on the bull mood to catch the move.

@jezzoo. only a few posts about barc not 20, but its ok to differ. i'm obviously bearish for the short term and across many ftse100 stocks. at 190 i said its way overvalued and maintained 175 was where it should have been at best, with a view of 160-165 very plausible (and even lower before the vaccine support stepped up). looks like i'm not so wrong so far. where do you think we are heading in the short and medium term?

160-165 coming if / when 168 broken again

160/170's is a real prospect as i noted for the same reasons over a month ago. no rush to enter the market when strains continue, more countries chose to restrict UK travel and iag huge daily losses continue to mount. EU will want to continue to hurt UK and without a global vaccine passport system no real progress can be made. this can take even 2 years but I think 12 months will see significant changes. Ill continue with a plan to buy in under 190 and keep enough fire power to buy down to 165 averaging 175-180. Longer term will look to exit well before 250 because the demand and iag balance sheet will be too fragile.

Still overpriced imo - looking for sub 190 to buy more (reached 192 earlier today), and mindful of further falls to even 165.

BJ mentioned today winter lockdowns are possible. Other countries continue to restrict air travel and business travel will never return to previous levels now work practices have changed.
Double vaccine exemptions will have little impact compared to the traffic light system hurdle. People travel as a family and most of the younger population will not have 2 jabs for a long time. This is only a token gesture move by the govt.

What do you think?

The US hawkish sentiment drives the current move but aligns with a long awaited overheated market correction.

Reached a new low of 168 today (from 171 previous bear dip) giving technical opportunity for further falls.

Bad debts will begin to materialise later in the year when banks can no longer extend lifelines on loans and have to accept bad debts on their balance sheet. Furlough ending is within sight and the economy isn't showing strong enough recovery figures, compounded by full economic reopening goals being revised. BJ also says winter lockdowns can happen now!!

As before, I'll re-enter at 165 or better with the mindset that the price can fall to just under 150 being a not so remote possibility. (Look at brexit figures for insight). Any small dead cat bounces at 170 may be a trap... beware!
What do you all think?