Member Info for guessworx

Update:
Latest forum posts now suggests SP 200p+ by end of year and 250p-325p next summer?
What do you think?

What do you think will happen before 2022? Charts say another jump up from 170's is coming and this is just a pause to allow the markets to adjust. Someone wrote before that when this stock moves it really moves fast and they were not wrong.

(On a side note is it possible for bigblue and others who are mostly having a chat here to find another forum and not spoil it for the rest of us. I have long ago filtered bigblue but notice replies to him/her in other comments which again wastes time with me having to read non-sense).

Silence speaks volumes but depending on who's listening. I hope they would just get on with the RI or assure us it's not needed for now to stem this.

do you really believe 200p SP ... if there's a RI i think those days are gone for years and more like 150-160

slightly random, but when brokers give target prices how long ahead are they looking?

I had planned an investment pattern that allowed for a low of 140 and that would still be intact if it were not for the threat of a fresh RI. I remember a few months back that posters thought I was being too pessimistic. Still not sure how to navigate this but much depends on the next piece of news from IAG, irrelevant of govt news etc in the short term. Share your thoughts ... there must be those of you out there in deeper trouble than me?

so many figures floating around.

- any consensus about the their burn rate? - (after accounting for increased flights/revenue across the group)
- and how long they can last before having to be proactive with a RI?

best guesses pls!

it could be that a RI was planned anyway but they were hoping to time it with an upswing from restriction free travel for the vaccinated.. and hence higher/stable share price and capital raised. That decision may have been made a month/two ago while SP was around 150p level, but because it has since slumped and the RI rumour became public/realistic (easyjet etc), they have shot themselves in the foot. Now will they wait gamble for a small bounce before announcing or will they be forced to act very quickly ahead of further declines.

I doubt they care for the SH and like others I'm weighing up leaving the sinking ship while there are still life boats, and not staying onboard knowing the best they might offer is a token lifevest after the ship has sunk.

(paddy/longterm - fire power and mortgages are only useful if you have no position or are able to bring the average down enough)

in a similar dilemma too.
the fact is they need more money to keep going.

if the SP was in the 170 range and they announced RI then that would have been survivable. But if they wait and the SP approaches 110-120 range, then to be attractive the RI would need to be much much lower around 70p. By comparison this would mean much greater dilution by offering even more shares just to raise the same capital sum, relative to announcing at the higher price, and ultimately destroying the long term SP. There is no share holder positive to their actions and only hope they want more money for acquisitions rather than staying afloat.

thanks, in a similar position but not sure what to do.

Possible 70p SP in a worst case if RI not announced before SP slides down into upcoming 110-120p territory.

If I hold the current position then I can take up the full RI, bringing my average down, and then hope there SP comes back to 150p long term to break even. But, after so much dilution and accrued debt I worry it will never even be worth 150p-160p long term, especially if business travel doesn't bounce back and transatlantic routes don't recover to pre-covid levels within a year or two.

Anyone please - how would you play it?

at what price did you buy / what is your % loss?

With no data from IAG to deny RI, no likelihood of dividends for many years to come, curbs on USA travel etc... the only path is down for the SP !

Do you think its wise to take a loss and exit the market at this SP before there is no value left?

Hello all, not looking good again.
- Would be useful to gain other peoples thoughts on the following:

Qu1. - Does anyone actually know what their monthly net losses are?
(It's not 1Billion gross as other have said. Net = income - expenditure)

Qu2. - What will Qu1. become after furlough support finishes this month?
(IAG last said end of furlough will have significant impact and its not clear if they can let staff go under their contracts / they need all staff to maintain operations).

Qu3. - If they go for a rights issue what do you think the offer will be and when?
(RI is likely the route to raise funds as it doesn't add more debt to their balance sheet, but I doubt they will discount as deeply as last year).

If there is no rights issues then how low do you think this can fall, 100p? 110? 120? 130P
And for those with a longer view, how can high this stock go in the medium term?

@mararab @everyone - what's your best guess for the bottom?, and will the SP likely recover long term to 200p+

@ftse12 - im long term (years) and trying to bring my average down :( if they need more cash lets hope it comes via shareholder rights issue. Also, if and when do you see 200p+ coming round or will the overall pandemic hit be too much to surpass? thanks

buying in at 155 and then more all the way down to 135. bad idea?

SP bottom over the next year if you had to guess?

Where do you see the bottom now?
I provisioned 140-155 over last few months but can't help but wonder if it can go down even lower

I think £1 is a stretch but if another year goes by its not out of the question. I was also burnt a little coming in too early but kept a trading plan that allows me to accommodate down to 140 so not worried for now. Trying to catch a falling knife is never easy.