Member Info for Gudin

The Bonasse field produced 2044 at 6bpd in 2013, 2488 at 7bpd in 2014 and 3418 at 9bpd in 2022. Pretty consistent figures and a three fold increase from wax treatment on wells that have already been worked over previously comes at well under 700bpd. Indeed at 700bpd the production at Bonasse would exceed three years total combined production in just over 11 days. PRD also has a 51% stake in this field reducing by half your figure.

The Jacobin 1 well was perforated in two of the five zones and there was no production from these two zones. Similar wells produce around 60bopd initially for each zone giving 300bpd. Snowcap 1 flowed at 406bopd and the wax treatment is expected to give 100bpd to 200bpd but lets ignore this company assumption.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/predator-oil-gas-holdings-npv--prd/completion-t-rex-resources-cory-moruga-acquisition/7864181

300 and 406 gives 353bpd for the two wells and 1412bpd total for the four wells. Combined with 15 bpd from Bonasse gives a total of 1427bpd which still contains a high degree of assumption ie two wells status unknown, the two zones in Jacobin 1 perforated did not flow and that's before the up to threefold for the wax treatment is confirmed. 1427 divided by 11 gives 129bpd

Onto the profit, T & T oil trades at a discount of between $5 to $10 a barrel. There is a royalty of on average 12.5% for oil and gas production, an unemployment levy of 15% payable by everyone and tax relief on profits is capped at 75%. There is also the cost of trucking and pipeline costs that require adding.

At current wti $72 minus a $5 discount opex of $16 plus $4 trucking and pipeline costs gives a margin of $47. 47 x 11 x 129 x 365 gives $24.3m. Minus $8m for the various taxes and royalties gives $16m profit on your still optimistic model.

PRD paying the $1m in cash and shares, WIEGL taking on the $4.25m liabilities for 12 months.

The itr produced in Jan 24 after Mou 4 also gives a cos of 12%

Page 44

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/09/Guercif_-ITR_20240124.pdf

Six seismic lines and a well on the edge of the prospect for an area of 177km(at the time of report) no competent assessor is putting their reputation on the line for a cos much higher.

So $5m spent to halve the share price? Yet some still bang on about accretive placings.

At what point does it become ok to question management?

Keithoz can you highlight the accretive value created from the previous placings? Keep hearing the term and bang for buck yet every placing is at a lower share price.

Dilution at ever decreasing share prices is the only thing that PG is consistently able to deliver, putting that 40 year experience to good use. But as he said in the last presentation he has the back of loyal shareholders.

T & T has led to a lot of new shares being issued for very little return, a vanity project that negatively impacted the potential upside from Morocco.

Wonder why none of the directors ever take part in these now frequent placings? Have they no faith in the company?

The upper formation is a different sand and not affected by the mud issues. Here is a clue all presentations before this mentioned testing of Mou 1 and 4 and not forgetting the time PG said we will finish Mou 2 no matter what. No mention in this presentation, the 50mm cfgpd and 100mm cfgpd plus the infill wells has quietly been dropped and the upper sands is now the target. The most recent 20 mm cfgpd now has become 3 mm cfgpd. If they are confident that the lower sands will flow why the change of plan?

The initial plan was cng to fund the Jurassic target, now we are going into a low cos well with no Mou flow or T & T production safety net as previously planned. The plan for the last few years has changed since the perforating of Mou 3 its no great leap to suggest that something is amiss.

Thanks for the link Keithoz, the ip rates in that article are a lot lower than CM the best seems to be 70bpd.

This report seems to suggest the issue at Bonasse is tight sands rather than wax.

http://parlcloud.ttparliament.org:8081/PapersLaidViewer/TempFiles/MEEA%20Administrative%20Report%202014.pdf

"BOLT’s cumulative oil production for fiscal 2014 was 2,488 barrels at an average rate of seven

(7) bopd. This was fairly comparable to the previous fiscal year for which the company’s

cumulative oil production was 2,044 barrels at an average rate of 6 bopd. This very small increase

in cumulative crude oil production could be attributed to several non-MEEA approved workovers,

including clean-out jobs, performed on six (6) of the existing Bonasse wells (B1, B2, B3, B4, B5

and B8). The low level of production overall from the existing Bonasse wells could be attributed

to the fact that not only were these wells completed in tight sands with slow fluid intake, but low

production levels could not be significantly improved by new oil production activities, such as

drilling of new wells, or workovers to increase efficiency."

A field averaging under 10bpd for a decade, you can see why there is scepticism for these wells to be averaging 250bpd going forward. Six wells had workovers in the above reference and produced 1bpd field increase. CM is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to achieve a 250bpd average over 11 wells.

Https://eiti.org/sites/default/files/2024-10/TTEITI%20Report%202022.pdf

Page 161 Bonasse field produced 3418 in 2022 average daily production for the year of 9.36bpd. With PRD 51% stake that's under 5bpd.

Production is not tax free. The presentation says that the losses can be offset against PPT (Petroleum Profit Tax) The rest are still payable plus a standard 12.5% government royalty. Page 17 from the above links list the payable taxes.

Rob you have been posting the same thing for two years, perhaps if you had been critical early then some progress might have been made. Pg must be sitting laughing at the chief fluffer on twitter ramping this while he banks a healthy wage for doing sweet fa.

Pulling rabbits out of the hat they have been in so long they will just be skeletons.

The market has spoken today with their regard for PG and the boards credibility to deliver,it's a resounding thumbs down.

Mou 4 completed there has been zero positive progress on any of the three projects in the near 20 months since until the "planned" spud, looking at page 21 of the presentation you can see why. A vibrant oil and gas board or a lawn bowling committee? Fresh energetic blood is required.

No flow from mou 3 all part of the tax plans keithoz? First gas early 2024, now end of 2026. Not good enough.

Mou 5 is a carbonate prospect and different from the sands of the Mou fan. The results from testing MOU 3 proved that they used the wrong mud and this would have been known early if they had tested Mou 1 and prevented MOU 3 and the sands in Mou 4 repeating this mistake. They had the chance to test the carbonates in Mou 4 to see if the mud used was correct, they have not taken this opportunity. So rather than learning from previous mistakes they are actually risking the chance of repeating them.

Got there in the end keith, as it stands there is no proof of any connection yet. I am sure a discussion could take place if or when a connection is confirmed extending any concession and restarting the tax clock or even separate concessions for cng and gas to power and export if we get there.

My view is that flow from Mou 3 is not at the required levels (yet)and it is unlikely they are sitting on positive results to align timings. The fact Mou 1 and Mou 4 were not perforated and left in a similar holding state to Mou 3 suggests all has not gone as planned. If they were as you speculate sitting on positive results from Mou 3 why would they not use sand jet when in country on the other wells?

To extend your theory on maximising the tax window it makes sense to extend what we all hope is a positive result with Mou 5 until Mou 6 & 7 can be drilled for flow assurance and appraisal, which with the required long lead items order time for Mou 7 is likely to be heading towards June.

Hydrocarbon deposits can be ring fenced, the MOU fan and the Jurassic are two distinct unconnected deposits and can be separately ring fenced as such. The MOU fan can be ring fenced as a commercial discovery whilst the Jurassic remains an exploration prospect.

Keithozs theory falls down on the reality that fields can be ring fenced, something which is contained in the contract and something which PG has also spoken about.

The company can announce a commercial discovery on the MOU fan whilst the Jurassic prospect will remain as an exploration concession. The 10 tax free period will not start on the Jurassic until that prospect is declared commercial.

There is no tax saving on the Jurassic by delaying a commercial discovery, this is a misleading statement.

5th Feb they announced the rig contract for Mou 5, Ijwt is probably expecting the same this time.

Well aware of the issues but as previously posted I was referring to the ability to get operations done. You will agree that four companies planned well activities in May this year only PRD failed to complete them. If those failed companies can manage it what does that say about PRD.

Ijwt

We have a drill manager in Morocco who seems very capable in her job when given the correct tools to work with so a transition will be fairly smooth for the drill. T & T has a Country manager who although does not seem up to much should be able to hold the fort on that small operation. PG was under pressure from share holders in February by his own admission to get something done, I would imagine this has ramped up now and he is aware he may be in the last chance saloon.

Morocco is painted by some on here as difficult, but others successfully operate in the country without the issues faced by PRD. To be honest we should not expect much of someone who highlighted the "monumental" task of transporting equipment from Europe to Northern Africa as an excuse.

The lost year.

No gas flow in Morocco or Mou 5 drilled. No production in T & T. No licence approved in Ireland. Share price significantly lower.

Value for money from management.

Some from memory Ford:-

Last to use the rig (still waiting)

Race to the finish ( currently behind the over 80s Eastbourne zimmer frame team)

T & T more oil sales than current market cap £50m at time ( company estimate of £1m to £7m for next 12 months)

Moroccan transaction this year ( 21 days left for this one)

Michael Caine waits patiently by the world's longest fuse as it creeps towards some doors, Rob has made as many inaccurate calls as any other poster.