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The countdown is on - the only question now is when will we hear the NCI deal!

I think we’ll see a big correction soon. Adrian was asked about the MCAP at the investor meet / great question and great answer if you ask me. Summarised below:

The question challenged why Fusion’s current valuation remains far below historic highs despite the company now being leaner, more efficient, and possessing a significantly stronger and more advanced technology stack—particularly with OptiMAL now validated.

In response, Adrian explained that the valuation gap is largely due to sector-wide headwinds in recent years: drug discovery and the CRO market have both faced difficult conditions, which has dampened investor confidence across the industry, not just for Fusion.

He emphasised that Fusion has undergone major strategic improvements, is now “much much” better positioned than during its previous period of high market cap, and is about to launch three major new platforms (OptiMAL, the Opti library and Mammalian Display). These are expected to unlock entirely new revenue streams on top of the existing business.

He concluded by saying that, given the company’s substantially stronger position today, he expects the gap to be “recognised and corrected over time” as the market begins to recognise these advancements and the new platform-driven growth opportunities.

A large buyer is absorbing anyway -£80k ish bought in 2 trades about 30 mins before the large sell.

1m sell yesterday seems to have cleared the way for todays rise!! Maven finally gone?

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fusion-antibodies-plc_fusionantibodies-activity-7402386091288313857-vozB?utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAABco24sBUkwbTXhwVSpN62H8TEq_QQyy_2M&utm_source=social_share_send&utm_campaign=copy_link

They’ve been keen to stress that the company don’t want to price themselves too high because they see mass appeal for optimal. Talked about a decent VW versus a Ferrari - scale. They’ve also said they would be expecting contracts in the millions. The beauty is that they will hopefully be able to expand their long term entitlements to royalties. So they’ll be growing the revenue base with upfronts in millions hopefully but also growing the back end long te entitlement to royalties on the antibodies produced. Multiple antibody therapies generate over $1bn a year - even a decimal % entitlement on one ofnhose would dwarf their current annual revenues - remember CALY002. They were invoked in that at the start too early in their development but it was sold for around $400m and they’d be entitled to things like that too.

After a rough 2023 (and a major restructuring to cut ~£2.2m in costs), Fusion Antibodies (FAB) has emerged leaner and poised for growth.

Recent results show clear improvement – loss down 32% and sequential revenue growing again on h2 of last year.

CEO Adrian Kinkaid says Fusion is on “a sound footing for growth” and expects the recovery to “continue into 2026 and beyond”. Brokers are forecasting h2 revenues this year to be £1.4m, more than 80% growth on h1. The turnaround has begun and this seems to be supported by biotech financing sentiment (XBI index at a high since late 2021).

This month, Fusion will launch OptiMAL®, a world-first antibody discovery platform using mammalian display technology. Debuting at the Antibody Engineering & Therapeutics (AET) conference , OptiMAL has already been validated by the US National Cancer Institute (NCI), global key opinion leaders in this area. In a pilot project, it yielded high-affinity antibody hits against all test targets – including single-digit nanomolar binders to tough peptide antigens , exceeding expectations. NCI was so impressed that it asked to extend the partnership to more targets in coming years. OptiMAL’s underlying library design is now patented in the US, reinforcing its technological edge. This platform could significantly broaden Fusion’s market reach and revenue potential.

Fusion’s core services business is likewise gaining momentum. The company has secured new contract wins (including multi-target antibody humanisation projects for large pharma clients), and interim results show revenue back on a growth trajectory. Even before OptiMAL’s official launch, over £1 million in potential orders are already in the pipeline for it  – an encouraging sign of demand. Management sees OptiMAL as a game-changer; Kinkaid said it “has the potential to markedly change [Fusion’s] traction” with big pharmaceutical clients.

Fusion also recently hired a senior commercial manager from competitor FairJourney Biologics (valued ~€900 million).

After years of hard work, all the pieces are coming together – Fusion appears to be at an inflection point. In my view, this is a compelling (if still speculative and subject to execution) case: a leaner company with a game-changing platform and major industry validation, finally ready to realise its potential. DYOR, but I’m very optimistic about what comes next for Fusion.

10 days to go

https://informaconnect.com/antibody-engineering-therapeutics/speakers/richard-buick-phd/

Presentation

OptiMAL™: Mammalian Display of a Human IgG Library for Discovery of Novel Antibodies

OptiMAL™ represents the World's first platform using a fully synthetic human antibody library that can be screened using Mammalian Display in the native IgG format. The results shown will demonstrate that this platform can be used for the discovery of antibodies with high specificity, developability and yield, in a competitive timeframe. Followed by the knowledge that a rationally designed synthetic library can out-perform more traditional library design methods.

Yeah though doesn’t look like a board level appointment so perhaps alone not necessary. Might come as part of the commercial launch RNS hopefully that they’re strengthening the team

The fact they’ve secured business development staff from their competitor FJ bio whose valuation is €900m is so impressive. Ahead of launching optimal in a couple of weeks, and the NCI deal landing, all the ducks are lining up very nicely!!

Yeah if you look on L2 there’s an MM with 20p showing

20p on the ask visible on l2 - MMs expecting this to go higher maybe?

Zero spread now - 13.6 to buy or sell!

Looks like they’ve now poached a commerciall staff member from their competitor who has €900m valuation….

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fusion-antibodies-plc_fusionantibodies-activity-7401624603439144960-6zok?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAErGYQIB6gTMGcSk4EsXpWwMe6tdaF1kU5E

Worked for FJBIO….telling they want to come work for the minnow of a competitor FAB with their world first tech

Great news about zero tarrif deal for FAB - less about direct impact on them but I taking uncertainty away from the sector and their clients

His appointment RNS also had this:

“ He was formerly the Chief Commercial Officer for Promexus Ltd, a protein biotherapeutics company where he developed the corporate strategy for Therapeutic Affimers, culminating in amulti-target dealwith a potential of over $1bn.”

So he’s landed the sorts of deals weee hoping that Optimal will deliver before! Time to shine

Fortnight until San Diego where they launch their flagship platform after almost a decade of r&d! Should be a fab lead up to it!

This was covered at the investor meet. My sense was that an agreement is near and they’re not going to pull the plug on the NCI. We might therefore get an update on Monday, either with a new agreement or a short extension. Or, we might hear nothing as they’re close to concluding. But my gut says there might be news next week in the build up to launch especially as Adrian said that they were launching to market, “now, in the next few days”, and it is the first December as well!

Was looking at cash seeing as it’s sti favourite topic. This is what Allenby say

Cash runway to FY27: Cash at the end of September was £252k, which our model suggests will fall to £120k at the end of March next year. Operational cash outflow in H1 was £567k, which we expect to reduce in H2 as revenue grows and gross margin improves. Fusion has indicated that cash as of 21 November was greater than at the period end.

Predicting burn of 22k a month suggests that the funamentals of the business have massively improved and they’re so close to profitability.

Rewatched the investor meet, very clear we have a significant new revenue stream about to come on board with “phenomenal” prelaunch interest. Here’s what the CEO said at 51 minutes 25 seconds in

“Are we likely to get bigger million, a million pound deals soon? … will we get multi- or will we get million pound deals with Optimal being launched?

“Okay, so Optimal brings clients in at the discovery phase at that start and that’s the best time at which we can use the ITAS, the integrated therapeutic antibody service offering, to see them all the way through to the end. If a client signs up for that, that will be significantly more than a million pounds for the standard project. So, yes, that would be the case if they sign up for all of it.

If they sign up and want to for only the beginning part, so it’s a bit like sliced loaf of bread. If they go for the sliced loaf as opposed to the whole loaf model, then we only get commitment from them on various phases as they work through. And that won’t necessarily be a single PO covering a million pounds or more, it could be broken up… but the cumulative value of those is still going to be heading towards a million pounds, provided of course they stick with us and go all the way through.”