Member Info for Gruyere

Maybe the underlying oil has just become relevant again. Massive oil field in British Overseas Terriotory waters, global shortage for the forseeable, big players not looking at the Arctic now, break even way below $100, helps UK oil security.
Fundamentals coming back.

Have I got this right as per the vote?.....Tender offer and share consolidation OR special divi and share consolidation....
so that's a bit of a Hobson's choice, either way the shares in issue are reducing.

I think we should stay positive. Let's remember the deal when they sold Kraken and Catcher - an earn out on and deferred consideration if minimum production levels ar emet and Brent was above $52. That could be a lot of cash still to come now that Brent is $100 plus.....note the word....uncapped!
• Uncapped Earn Out Consideration which will be payable in respect of calendar years 2021 to 2025 if
both (i) an agreed minimum production volume for that year is met and (ii) the Average Daily Brent
Crude Price in that year is not less than US$52.00 per barrel.
The agreed minimum production volumes in respect of each year are as follows:
Year Production Volume
2021 ......................................... 5,648,400 barrels of oil
2022 ......................................... 3,947,220 barrels of oil
2023 ......................................... 3,002,490 barrels of oil
2024 ......................................... 1,748,890 barrels of oil
2025 ......................................... 1,331,640 barrels of oil

No, your spot on. It is the weighted average over those five days - and given world and oil volatility its anybody's guess. What is certain is that there will be less shares in issue after the event and one way or another they are returning 700m dollars. Results due tomorrow I think.

'Theyre only buying back below £2'
No, I don't think so - if that were true they would have stopped on 25th Jan - they didn't. If that were true then brace yourself for a crap tender offer - why offer more than £2 then if its just hovering around the £2 mark now? And then there's the other $200M allocated to buybacks after the tender. No, its something else. Of course they might vene be buying as I type!

Just a point, why has the £20M share buy back has seemingly petered out a week ago. Only £8M spent up to that point. Might be paused for a reason - any ideas?

Inside Knowledge. 'Lol the short trend is your friend clearly going back up to 2.35+'
Yesterday you started a thread - with the quite irresponsibly title '£5 Bid confirmed'. You then wrote you expected a 'cheeky bid' at £4. Now its £2.35. Why not let the market take its course, no one on here is going to influence it in any direction - not ever.
By all means share your 'inside knowledge' but when but when someone challenges your point of view you usually descend to hurling childish insults which hardly reccomends yourself to others.

Danl:
My God has it come to this? Over £2000.000.000 turnover and could we all spend £100 to make a difference?
Look mate, there will or won't be a bid, you will or wont sell your shares, you might or might not make money - that's the same as for the rest of us. Fretting away is not going to change that - nor are your purchases.

Possible Reason for NO RNS?

Possibly no bid - maybe?

Well I guess the skill of buying shares for cancellation is not to cause an immediate spike in the price so as to take as large a portion as possible out of circulation. Then there are 116x the number bought still in issue so its not a lot as yet . Also you may have noted that there is a bet against price/sentiment improving anytime soon as shorts actually increased last week. Its going to be a question of fire power over the longer term along with trading results that will shift things. I am in the red so I certainly do hope for an improvement myself.

Be optomistic by all means, but spare a thought for reality. 18000 shares represents thirteen tenthousandths of one percent of shares in issue. It will do nothing one way or the other - nor will 20 times that.

If this Guy is still the Group Cammercial Director - it might be telling us something? Or will this be interpreted as a a 'last chance at these prices' '£5 by Friday' 'big news coming' 'takeover soon' etc etc as per the usual theme on here.

andsoforth: I agree, at the present price £30 Million will take out a goodly chunk of stock and push up the SP.

Potential to halve, then halve again and keep dropping---- but hold on, its already done that.
Hope you are right still.

Says who?

STEFANOS: Thanks. Even more reason to remain holding.

Stefanos: Agreed and at least there sounds like there is a back up plan. Who knows, maybe the sum of the parts might be greater than the whole. It is also a bit of an arm twist to the Asian investors.

Thanks for that info - but the tweeted letter isn't in full on the link. It's asking for an adjournement right? Can't see the reason though and I'm not on twitter.

Jhonnytaffa:
I agree that it did say special dividend. But the thing about special dividends however they are delivered is that they are priced in only until they are paid.
Say the special divi was 72p - and the share price the day before going ex-divi was, for example, £3. You would expect the SP to drop by at least 70p the day after to about £2.30 ish. This is no different really, it just provides the option to retain all the gain in the form of shares at £3 or surrender some of them for cash at £3. Some people will retain there full holding depending on how they view the prospects of the company and avoid at that stage any tax liability. That's IMHO of course.

This mechanism was used by Whitbread not so long ago, after they sold Costa and were left with a load of cash. The SP may rise when India cash is actually received. The market will calculate the value of a share with Capricorn holding $700m and the offer will be based on that so that the number of shares it cancels will leave the remaining shares near the same value as before the $700m was spent. This provides an option to shareholders -take cash now or stick with the company holding a proportionally larger chunk of it .
The outcome at Whitbread was tender around £40 , more wanted cash than cash available - and then with the pandemic the SP crashed and a rights issue followed at £15 as I recall! But as theysay DYOR and GLA.