Member Info for gruvgunnar

The two triggers I mention depend on when the application for the environmental permit was made and when it can be expected to be completed. The company has cited Q4 as a benchmark.

As for the official announcement of the takeover, we already have an unofficial approval of the Tullow deal which gives us 75% of the concession in Guyana. The original timing was of course determined by when the deal was announced.

So comments about what happened a year ago are embarrassingly out of date.

What about "action"?

When the basic triggers are in place, an accumulated news flow takes place that deals with new settlements and their implementation in the respective concession.

Let's see what this means for the share price development from the levels we have now.

Significant triggers in the near term:

+ Environmental permit for 3B/4B in South Africa. We crossed this threshold last year and with Total's moves we can see the light at the end of the tunnel here.

Understandably crucial for the farm-out process.

+ A formal official approval of ECO's takeover of Tullow's stake in our Guyana block.

A formal prerequisite for the farm-out process there.

My personal opinion, which of course could be wrong, is that a farmout deal of the deep sea blocks in Namibia can wait until after these two farmouts.

These two announcements come without knowledge of when from our company management, as the licensing authorities own the timing.

Thanks for the article, Phoebus. That map carries a message.

It's just the first few sentences that is new in the article. Their sources have been right before, though no guarantee.

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/golden-block-ready-to-shine-totalenergies-set-to-take-champagne-off-ice-after-latest-tests-at-giant-namibian-oil-discovery/2-1-1518169

"Extraordinarily, according to data from marine intelligence provider VesselsValue, the Jonker-1A appraisal well is being drilled more than 22 kilometres northwest of Jonker-1 probe, which Upstream reported in February this year had made a major discovery."

"The distance between these wells gives a clear indication of the huge areal extent of Jonker and would suggest that Shell wants to move fast to determine the discovery’s maximum extent and push ahead with a probable development in more than 2000 metres of water.

Jonker is currently estimated to hold about 2.5 billion barrels of oil in-place, according to Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which was commissioned by Namcor, Namibia’s state oil company, to piece together a resource assessment of the country’s Orange basin discoveries.

A fast-track, phased development is being planned for this discovery, with first oil possible by 2029-2030."

Part of the article:

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/shell-spuds-critical-orange-basin-appraisal-well-on-2-5-billion-barrel-oil-find/2-1-1509223?fbclid=IwAR0YKT3j8wwKD0E48UOfZJ1MIsYvQ_R0YlL68B0iF874DWmWRE1HpkZ86t4

Thanks, this is, of course, important news. Let's see what path the coming deals will reveal

The strategy of Galp is to "de-risk" the block by two drill holes and after that invite for a farm out. After 40 years in this business there seems to me to be a pattern that states and juniors use mid size independent as partners and that the giants comes in next phase. It's all about getting a fair part of the cake. For all.

A part of the article: "He (CEO of Galp) said Galp has an 80% operating stake in PEL 83 and is also carrying the other partners in the block — state-owned Namcor and local player Custos Energy, each holding 10% interests.

“Clearly, it’s too high an exposure so once we’ve de-risked (the block) we will be inviting a credible party to the table.”

Rumours have been circulating that Italian major Eni has been interested in the Orange basin, but these could not be substantiated.

Galp has chartered Odfjell’ Drilling’s semi-submersible drilling rig Hercules for the two well campaign on PEL 83 which is due to start in the fourth quarter of this year

The rig is currently drilling a probe offshore eastern Canada for ExxonMobil on a prospect called Gale.

This two adds to the picture , from Upstream:

"Shell's purple patch of exploration successes in the Orange basin offshore Namibia has finally come to end after a high-risk exploration probe in the northern part of its acreage failed to find commercial volumes of oil and gas.

The UK-based supermajor had previously hit hydrocarbon sweet spots in this prolific southern African basin with its Graff, La Rona, Jonker and Lesedi discoveries, while also carrying out a successful flow test on Graff.

According to informed well-watchers, Shell's latest exploration well was always perceived as higher risk because it was chasing a different geological play to the other more southerly finds.

Upstream was told that the Cullinan-1X probe was targeting a carbonate structure, thought to extend into Galp Energia's block to the north.

And while the well failed to discover commercial volumes of oil and gas, a Shell spokesperson said the results suggested a working petroleum system could be present.

“The well did not make a discovery. However, we are encouraged to have found indications of a working petroleum system in this previously untested area of our licence.

"The well has been plugged and abandoned and we will now analyse the data gathered before deciding on any follow-up activity."

Namibia's oil riches could have a huge influence on Shell's performance in the years ahead, analysts believe. Photo: Peter Dejong

Shell's spokesperson added: "We continue to see important exploration potential in our licence and to progress our multi-well exploration and appraisal campaign.”

One source familiar with Namibian exploration activities, said that while Cullinan “was disappointing, it would be fair to say this result doesn’t downgrade the value” of Shell’s acreage.

The semi-submersible drilling rig Deepsea Bollsta left the Cullinan well location over the weekend, to drill an appraisal well on one of its earlier discoveries."

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/shell-completes-latest-probe-in-exploration-hotspot-namibia-success-or-failure-/2-1-1508504?fbclid=IwAR2LN1BHqZrpFLTMrB2NQg28YnI9cYR5LUd0Jb-3D0hdIb7RQopHU-0dCO8

‘Large and high quality’: Galp chief whets appetite ahead of Namibian drilling effort

First of two exploration probes in Orange basin could spud by end of 2023

1 August 2023 4:00 GMT UPDATED 1 August 2023 8:27 GMT

By Iain Esau in London

Lisbon-based Galp Energia has identified "large and high quality" prospects on a promising block in Namibia's red-hot Orange basin play where it plans to start drilling up to two exploration wells this year.

So, what percentage may ECO have in Galp block giving Galp the operator roll and 60 % of the block in Guyana? That is mirroring the value of the earlier deal given a succes, or not, for Tullow.

It is a non-diluting deal giving us two active ways going forward.

Just a thought.

The idea was that ECO can offer Galp a large part of our Guyana block in exchange for smaller part in the drilling in December.

We'll see.

Why not approach GALP and offer a deal in both Namibia and Guyana, giving two opportunities, one in December and one later in Guyana 2024?

("... We are under strict confidentiality with many parties in many:; aspects of our business; in Guyana, in Namibia and in South Africa, so there is not too much I can say, but all I can say is that pay close attention and have a look at our announcements in the coming few month. That will paint the bigger picture that we currently working on."

Last words in this presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9yYpI5qUsU )

There is ongoing buying pressure which is of course dependent on various factors. The market is heterogeneous.

For me personally the deal with Tullow turned the game upside down, I didn't see it coming. Given that more deals are underway, one can only speculate.

One such speculation is that AOI contributes to the Venus deposits being capitalized around the turn of the year and that it has an effect on the work with the drillings in Guyana and 3b / 4b.

A slightly simpler conclusion could be that after the Tullow deal, ECO's shares are more valuable (due to the potential of news taking us closer to a drillstart in Guyana) and will be able to be the basis for new business. This, in turn, can be seen as an accumulative win win situation as new deals will have a positive development on the value development.

"... We are under strict confidentiality with many parties in many:; aspects of our business; in Guyana, in Namibia and in South Africa, so there is not too much I can say, but all I can say is that pay close attention and have a look at our announcements in the coming few month. That will paint the bigger picture that we currently working on."

Last words in this presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9yYpI5qUsU

"...the series of transactions that we are contemplating for the summer towards the end of the third quater that we will let, of course, the market knew when executed."

From this presentation, 3:30 min: https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=w9yYpI5qUsU

Study the location of the rest of the Sintana blocks, given a failur in the most southern part. My statement is grounded in the assumtion that for now the interest is on the western side of the walvis basin, the deep sea blocks on trend. We have the M&P return of their blocks in mind.

As for the timing of the deal, it is always there when the whole choir sings, but Q3 is from the last presentation, 3:40 into this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9yYpI5qUsU

Note that our CEO is talking about a series of deals during the summer/end of Q3.

The galp block is, of course, very interesting project.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Sintana faces the realistic possibility of being without further opportunities unless there is a hit in Galp's drilling.

My way of running a business is to deal with such a situation. A total merger with ECO could be an option. ECO has the, right now, sought-after deep-sea areas in the Walvis basin as well as known assets in the Orange basin. To mention the local resources in West Africa.

At what relative price between the two companies a possible deal is made is determined by the parties.

I find it interesting that smart money has applied to ECO.

Of course, I have no knowledge whatsoever about the deal ECO announced that it intends to complete and present in Q3.

At the same time that M&P returns its license, Galp intends to drill in the area in connection with Shell's and Total's concessions.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/rigs-vessels/article/14293500/galp-books-odfjell-rig-for-two-wells-offshore-namibia

Also check Sintana Energys homepage. :-)

Rig is booked.

Sintana energy is carried in these drillings.

Wouldn't be surprised if Gil's plan is to do a merger with Sintana in order to get a well soon in a high interest area. (Shell's next drilling is against a target that goes into Galp's license.)

Like this platform where you can see the gross volume for all american stock exchanges where eco / EOG is traded:

https://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail?C:EOG

Just press US bottom and "Go" for more.