Evening all
good post Zeus, if I might say so...
very good summary...thank you
Seabright
good stuff...
Schoell nails it...
again ...posters should PLEASE let that (seemingly simple but )
compelling fact roll around in their heads
Thanks
BTW
Shaikan has indeed proved to be one of the top onshore oil discoveries of the last 25 years (as mentioned in my 2011 post...kindly copied extensively on this BB by Kasjohn)
Do I think Guercif could prove to be the gas equivalent?
Yes...I do
I would simply NOT be here if I thought otherwise
Regards
GRH
Seabright
GREAT post
thank you!
YES...hydrocarbon ENERGY is vital
As I have been banging on about seemingly FOREVER
I referenced it way back in my 2011 post which Kasjohn kindly reposted on here
There are many ways to consider the relationship between changes at surface
and hydrocarbon energy below
But...for ease...
One commentator (not one of my colleagues) was Dietmar Schumacher...
in his excellent Research Paper as presented in 2010 to The Indonesian Petroleum Symposium
he tracked... over 2700 examples...
the correlation between hydrocarbon evidence at surface
and success in finding commercial hydrocarbons below
The findings were startling to many
But his findings were in same ballpark as the tech I had referred to consistently over many years
BTW...the migration of hydrocarbons is PREDOMINANTLY VERTICAL
and it is at a NANO level...
(of course, there are obvious ... macro level ... seeps
and micro seeps
but science has moved on)
A fact totally recognised more recently by many
including the late great Adnan Samarrai
Regards
GRH
Afternoon ...
Blimey
I have seen it all now
Firstly ...repeatedly being called ‘a cheap suit salesman’
And now...being hauled over hot coals by PastaBelly (keep it classy)
due to my alleged inability to write The Queen’s English (in my 2011 post)
Both are slightly wide of the mark
Indeed, neither my allegedly cheap suit
nor my alleged lack of command of English Grammar
caused The King of Saudi Arabia
to question the wisdom of dealing with me on a $5 BN deal
Nor ...when I was much younger...
did such alleged impediments cause any loss of audience share
when my band used to gain bigger ...font size ...billing than Rod Stewart
And now I am in the virtual world ...
as occupied here
by some folk who have clearly scaled the very pinnacle of E&P investment
Funny old World
Regards
GRH
Afternoon
re peeps here leaving:
This is really simple...
it is exactly as I have banged on about consistently...sorry!
IE
Anyone who does NOT do sufficient research should NOT invest...
either here or anywhere else...it is a recipe for penury
It is ONLY by knowing as much as possible about the outfits one is invested in (out-knowing others )
that folk then develop the confidence to hold
It is a lesson I have learnt over 50 years
and tried hard to explain on here...
but was shouted down by the idiots
yes...the market took fright at the 6 JULY RNS
and I can see why many ...without knowledge ...would have been spooked
I am in a very fortunate position
but even the publicly available information available here is off the scale...it is really terrific
It is WHY I was screaming at folk to REALLY STUDY ...inter alia ...the 2012 CPR
As I suspected ...few really did true DD
I am sorry to see some go ...
but the market is red in tooth and claw
and it spits out folk who simply don't have confidence that only knowledge can bring
Regards
GRH
Evening all
roll that headline around in your head...
NO Debt
Zero
Nada
Zilch
then take a hard look at HOW small shareholders in some other E&Ps
have seen riches (created under their watchful eye) almost surgically removed from them
it has often been by the simple expedient of debt (often bond) holders
being able to march in when value is created
and dilute ordinary shareholders...
Dilution ...sometimes to practical oblivion (100/1 )
It is WHY I implore folk
to PLEASE look deeply at the Enterprise Value of companies in which they invest
The capital structure of a company is right up there in importance ...
alongside assets/value
I repeat
PRD has NO Debt
I have never ever seen this done before by a micro outfit
especially one engaged in value creating projects in three safe havens
NO DEBT
Get it?
I am a decent sized shareholder here
I RARELY invest in micro E&P outfits
Regards
GRH
Nametrade
yes...thanks
I had forgotten Spangle...
I might recall who he is
I am hoping in the first instance for someone from this BB...
as I don't want to be the conduit from someone else to here
as the message might then get jumped on by the wrecking crew /idiots
Thanks
Regards
GRH
Morning all
In order to try to raise the discussion a bit ...so we can all derive some benefit from this BB ...
is there anyone here please who can talk with knowledge about the drilling of gas wells?
I am thinking specifically re
Down dip vs updip
How a very substantial down dip step out well might perform vs how the up dip will perform
Simultaneous testing of both down and up dip wells...pros and cons
The precise positioning of SGB2 ...
ie slightly higher than the MOST down dip point ...
but company now confirms as part of SGB2 sands (bring it on...exactly as I have been saying )
High pressure regimes...mud weighting...use of large volumes of Bentonite 05
Benefits of Barite additions?
Wall performance factors within high pressure zones
You get the gist
The nonsensical and intellectually barren (see what I did there) sniping is of no interest ...
Save other than to those are clearly paid to disrupt/sow FUD
Whilst I have a lot of drill experience ...
it is mostly from the comfort of my office and via many E&P experiences ...
((the only truly hands on experience I have had was when a team drilled a high tech water borehole here about 6 years ago...200 ft
it created quite a stir locally
as the drill rig /mud tanks etc arrived over two days ...partly on a 42 ton low loader ...
it was all pretty big scale for a sort of domestic setting ...
endless cups of coffee to the end of the garden enabled me to view mud and drill performances literally hands on
oddly, the owner of the drilling outfit was an investor in GKP ...
we remain good friends to this day...brilliant bloke))
Many thanks in advance
to anyone who can better inform us all ...
re my questions and more
Regards
GRH
TT-T...
Correct
Drop me a connection request if you want...
Or via twitter
@GrahamHengland
I enjoy the debate...Might be good to to chat...up to you of course
Have pathological dislike of those lacking in intellectual rigour...
ATB
Regards
GRH
Nickelmine
Really???
You might wish to give your advice to /contact, inter alia , Tony Hayward (ex BP head)
who in 2011 was boss of Genel
They were drilling the Behr Bahr structure in Kurdistan
They positioned the first exploration well at the edge of the structure...way off the structural sweet spot
A certain person (BB poster) told him in public
(as also in Sevenoaks one Sunday morning)
that it was unlikely to come in
and indeed published exactly that advice in public on 20 Dec 2011
I do know...
I was /am that person
MOU1 has come in ...massively...
I am here for Morocco
Regards
GRH
Morning all
Busy day ...
so just a quick summary of my take (FWIW as ever) re today's RNS
PRD = awash with deals
Can monetise TT/EOR ...Lonny to accelerate and maximise
Can partner on Mag Mel ...part of wider Irish deals
VERY heavy focus on Morocco ...
due to what has been discovered by MOU1
Anyone here remember my CREAMING CURVE post?
YES, Morocco really is big...
((I think it is quite a bit bigger than BIG...
if I am correct...that will be revealed in due course...)
Value to equity holders would then be 'interesting'
I will make my targets
Obviously...
Maximising/monetising TT could bring funds for MOU4...
Thus allowing PRD to stay at FULL 75% field equity for longer ...
prior to sale/JV
I have truly NEVER seen the following done before:
and I am DELIGHTED to be a part of this
1 ...Discovery of monster
2 ... In benign location/regime
3 ...By tiddler
4 ...with NO DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RP is old...new blood
DYOR
(I do)
Yes...I could be wrong
(but tomorrow is not Friday)
Regards
GRH
TT-T...
Thanks...
yes...agreed
Your: 'It doesn't seem unreasonable to say that the new estimate is likely in the scale of 68-187 though'
none too shabby perhaps for outfit with current EV of about £12m
all to play for
Regards
GRH
Hi TTT
I don't think so...
as the range of estimated figures had been in respect of a stated range of gross thicknesses
and the 75 m gross interval appears to be 36% above the TOP of the previous estimates of thickness
so it might be reasonable to extrapolate across
Time will tell ... re testing /new CPR
but ...by all means...if you wish...
cover the range from your chosen low point to 187bcf
Where does your 75% weighting comes from?...
does it not look a bit arbitrary ?
Great conversation to be having ...
trying to figure out minimum case
Regards
GRH
Afternoon
The upside on Morocco is off any reasonable scale
We know that...some more than others
But I want to do something pretty unusual
I want to consider the LOWEST £ case...
IE what we do know ...AS OF TODAY
((Yes...it has to be tested of course))
SGB2 was assessed by management as being 50 – 138 BCF (PRD July 2020 presentation)
With a COS of 57%
It has now been confirmed as successfully penetrated at 1229 metres TVD MD (RNS of 19 July)
Clearly... COS is no longer 57%
And it has come in with a measured thickness
that is 36% better than the best estimate...
(gross section of 75 metres ...up from 55 metres tops)
implying 187 BCF...
Is that reasonable?
If so...does anyone want to do the £ math??
Michael Caine can be used as a reference point of course...
but you will need to adjust for increases in shares in issue
BUT...also in 19 July RNS
(YES...this accords 100% with my own views)
• TGB-2 now interpreted as western distal limit of the MOU-4 submarine fan ("MOU-4 Target")
• Potential for structural/stratigraphic trap of up to 60 km²
But...WHAT IF that is only part of the story unfolding ...
in front of us ...
in real time
I think it is
Regards
GRH
Morning all
seems quiet here
BeetleboyPRD
I would just like to say that there is one poster on here
who is out there in a class of his own...
and it is not me
it is surely Wack...
who has carried out a LOT of research...
through devoting much of his personal time to this...
He has been kind enough to let readers and fellow posters freely know the fruits of his labours ...
(I do not put on the BB all that I know)
I am very grateful to him
Thanks Wack
Sefton has long made the point that investment banks etc
do not carry out in depth research as effectively as some on this BB
It is a great shame IMO that, of late, that research-led ethos and discussion
had been side tracked by those with nefarious agendas
Hopefully, we can now get back to sharing useful information
BTW
I have NEVER suggested the SP will be £15
I HAVE suggested that I am aiming for a total CAPITAL return of £15 per share...
Of course, the key is CAPITAL return...
not the same thing at all as regular dividends (which are paid out of yearly, recurring earnings)
Will I make that figure?
(it would represent a 1000 bagger for me
and would dwarf even my bigger successes in terms of baggers)
I think I will ...
even more so now that MOU1 has been drilled and SOME results published
The combination of those results /the 2012 CPR and private stuff that I possess (sorry) leads me to increase my confidence in Morocco's share of the £15 figure...
and yes...it could even represent £15 on its own ...
I am sorry if that sets off the apoplexy alert in someone's bedsit
But I really would not be invested here ...would not waste my time...
UNLESS I thought this was BIG
Thanks againWack
Regards
GRH