It might be worth mentioning...
As some folk are doing calculations that are wrong...sorry!
Even leaving aside the very different market price regimes
And the very different fiscal regimes...
There is THIS:
It was widely known that... in order to bring Prosperinade etc hydrocarbons to market , the buyers would have to spend AT LEAST the same amount again
IE effectively DOUBLE the purchase price actually paid
The sheer scale of that infrastructure challenge was and remains staggering...
It is now 9 years after the sale/purchase deal
I think costs have more than doubled
Now...remind me...where is Guercif?
Might be worth remembering when doodling on fag packets?
Regards
GRH
Morning
I posted re Cove and the similarities with PRD
I regard the strategic positioning of PRD as akin to that of Cove in late 2009...
There are those on here who disagree with me and that is up to them..
We are all products of our own experiences and knowledge and research
Prosperinade was and is enormous...one of the world's great finds in the last 20 years...
I count myself fortunate to have been involved as a shareholder
So...a tiny outfit...Cove...with experienced management team...got involved in some great licences...and found a bonanza
Hmmm...
sound familiar?
It will
Differences are several
Not least the astronomical costs at Prosperinade...both in drilling and then getting it to production...that massively limited the asset value on sale
PRD is in a vastly different geographical and fiscal location
But I believe it to hold licence on what I believe will turn out to be a truly great asset
Oh...almost forgot...
Silly me
Cove had 8.5% of Prosperinade
PRD has SLIGHTLY more of Guercif...
Maybe some here might even recall that %!!
Now you know another reason I regard this share price as not even call option pricing...
and open ended Call at that...
I hope to peel back...reveal.. more of the onion in due course
Regards
GRH
Croxie...
Thanks
Water
Duck
Back
Repeat as necessary
It's always good to read the views of the really successful investors on here...
those with outstanding track records...
they stand out!
some even finding time to post a million posts per day for decades...
((you get the gist))
whilst their posts might sound like gibberish, I am sure it is merely that we mere mortals, operating at our lower levels of commercial success, simply fail to grasp the scale of their wisdom
Must go ...
as there is a fly past..scheduled for 5.30 pm... up here in North Norfolk
Locals are gathering in our road to watch
As its rare to see such a large murmuration
of pink flying pigs gathered in one place
Regards
GRH
Afternoon
Some here might be familiar with the case of Cove...sold in 2012...
There was a ferocious bidding war..
Which was a delight to watch!
I was a shareholder in Cove...it was a great result
It was real deep water exploration and discovery...
With truly eye watering costs to develop...
due to literally zero infrastructure...vast distances to market ...over and above the deep water nature of the discovery
indeed it has taken 9 years and counting to develop to market
The acquisition price was greatly impacted due to such eye watering costs to market
Why do I mention Cove when the dissimilarities with PRD seem so great?
Could it be that the geology of the Prosper invade field was quite young ?
Could it be that it was a tour de force in how to set up and succeed ...with a new exploration company?
Massively for the benefit of shareholders!
Could it be that Dr Stately was a NXD at Cove
Could it be that he is Chairman at PRD?
Funny old world
Regards
GRH
Morning ...
The RNS of 18 march was clear that the scoping study was in respect of an example volume...
and frankly small volumes ...
when compared with the numbers we were then about to seek
The Michael Caine post tried to make that even clearer...
The financial numbers took many by surprise
but were wholly correct...
that post provided RNS attributions for every number
Keith...
I think you ARE very correct...
IE those RNS numbers were actually real world examples of a real world possible deal
As such...they illustrate the high value of even the EXAMPLE numbers quoted
AND the comparative ease with which funding could be secured (yes...I know!)
I am seen here as very bullish on this asset...
some see me as far too bullish...and that is their right although the ad hominem stuff diminishes them
But they really don't get it...or do do want to get it
This genuinely is the biggest upside of any e&d that I have found...
and I have been in some of the biggest
Dyor
And all the usual politically correct stuff
Tomorrow might be Saturday
Regards
GRH
Afternoon all
Bearing in mind WHAT we are invested in...
and the SCALE of it...
I would urge folk to look at the macro picture
re wholesale energy costs...
both the spot and forward markets
Gas and electricity supplies are highly problematic
VAST increases in wholesale prices are soon to appear at consumer (retail and industrial) level
No country is immune
In some Asian countries supply at any price is problematic
We are NOT looking at a few 100% increases
in the intra day markets ,the increases are measured in the 1000%s
Crazy times...
Regards
GRH
Lochnez
I look forward to it...
we can probably natter about geologies we both know
As to the 28 SEPT meeting...
I agree with MEM...things are likely afoot
The thing with PRD is really simple...
the share price at this level represents pure Call Option pricing...as I have said before
and it would take VERY little information for it to gallop away...
The SP has the potential to go up in multiples
if tangible news can be published this month
Regards
GRH
Lochnez
Some bloke on here had also mentioned Leviathan
Oh wait a minute:)
Re undiscovered oil and gas...
I very much look forward to meeting you in due course...I respect your posts
I am pretty sure you will be interested in what STILL awaits
That very subject ...of undiscovered hydrocarbons ...
was our favourite discussion when the
(late/Wonderful) Adnan Samarrai and I met for curries...
Adnan had discovered more oil than any man then still alive
(including of course the terrific Shaikan ...
as well as ALL of the oil discoveries for Saddam Hussein) and sat at the very head of almost EVERY operating committee in KRG territory...many of the giants operating there
one only has to read his obituary to appreciate WHAT a towering figure he was
I am impressed by few people
but I was bowled over by what he knew
Adnan totally recognised that his own methodology and experience...incredibly successful that they were...
could not match what I was able to show him...sounds crazy ...but I assure you it is totally true
he actually got me to show him some technical outputs over a lunch one Friday
so he could evaluate a piece of real estate /potential licence...against what he also knew
Sorry to drone on
Regards
GRH
And it is worth a LOT
I keep banging on about this ...sorry...
but its worth banging on about...at least in my view
Porosity x Permeability x Charge = Hydrocarbon ENERGY
That... folks... is what PRD is after...in great quantity
I am not going to publish my own stuff on here
but I would be surprised if the knocking crew know anything like as much...
as they simply do not possess the access/abilities
I would also be amazed if any of them has EVER made any real money investing in E&D shares in their lives
One day ...when this is all over , I might share a little list with some here...
It all kicked off with Nautical ...
that was not too shabby as I recall
Yes I could be wrong this time ...if so, I could lose real cash
and yes...folk should not simply listen to BB chat etc
but must do as much real research as possible
As Wackmeister has pointed out many times...
the info IS out there in PLAIN SIGHT
If this was easy, even the knocking crew would be wealthy...
Does anyone seriously believe they ARE???
DYOR etc
ATB
Regards
GRH
Thanks Keith ...excellent reply
My guess...all it is...is that it is going to be to do with pulse testing...
trying to ascertain and PROVE what we have...
no messing about...no room for doubt etc...I agree with you
FWIW I think a deal could follow hard on the heels of that lot
'OK we will do a deal on what you can prove within x months'
and if this find is as big as I believe it to be...
the Moroccan Government would be keen to get a bigger purse involved to develop even faster
Paul is really onto something extraordinary here...(I have to say IMO of course)
Thanks Tesla...I had read that bit but wondered if there was more...I agree that PRD would present across multiple fronts when meeting with The Government
Thanks TTT...I agree with you
my question is WHY?...
what is behind such speed ??
Thanks everyone...good conversation
Regards
GRH
Evening
A poster on here the other day mentioned that PRD was due to present to the Moroccan government during Q4
I forget who posted it...sorry
But does anyone have more detail on that please?.
As I must have missed it...thanks
Also
Does anyone have good theories re why PG intends to drill 4 and 5 back to back?
Obviously there are economies re rig...of course...
But what lies behind what appears an unusual decision for such a small outfit?
Thanks
Regards
GRH
MEM
You have read my views over time
I hope that I have been wholly consistent
Things are not as they appear here...IMHO
I am VERY certain I know the reason/S
why the RNS of 6 JULY was written as it was
A lot of folk turned turtle and headed for the hills
BIG mistake ...EPIC
If you are correct...
sorry cross that out
WHEN ...
you are shown to be correct ...as you very likely will be...
Several folk on here will then never forget Mr Caine
The others will look on ...
wondering how the hell they missed almost every clue
As you know...
I rarely buy E&Ps
I bought PRD
Regards
GRH
The 18 MARCH RNS and the explanatory Michael Caine post are now old hat
yes of course there are now more shares in issue than then...do the math
but ...following the drilling of MOU1 ... the likely resource base has improved ...
greatly
the HP/HT encounter was anticipated
but it looks like it has surpassed expectations
But ...riding high above all this stuff is one giant factoid
The natural gas market has gone totally bananas...
re shortage of supply issues ...and thus pricing
wait until you get your next non fixed price gas bill
that huge change might affect the industrial user market in Morocco in a very obvious way
Users will be keener today ...than in say March...
to SECURE /lock in their supplies
and some of those companies can readily provide the money
Lonny is here for a reason
You all know my personal theory re 6 JULY RNS
Regards
GRH