Member Info for GreyPanther

Several million RBD shares were traded yesterday, but only 70,000 shares were bought back at 0.1467p. The purchase cost of £102.69 - if my arithmetic is correct - makes mw wonder if it can it be worth the CEOs' while to make such ludicrously small purchases, plus the attendant cost of the RNS and broker's fees. Any thoughts much appreciated.

The current 4.35p SP suggests, to me anyway, that the market is expecting Heyco's 4.5p bid will be successful. They held over 40% before announcing it, which is presumably why they made such a disappointingly low 4.5p offer. I'm now kicking myself that I didn't sell more of my holding during the temporary lifting of the fracking moratorium. As it was, I sold only 17% of what I then held at about 7.8p, expecting the SP to go still higher. I should have sold the lot, but I guess you can't win 'em all.

Sorry; George Yates' associate companies actually owned 43.76% of Egdon before today's offer, not quite what I posted below.

I see that Heyco, Petricor and / or George Yates' associate companies owned 43.876% of Egdon before today's offer, so the acquisition of Harbour Energy's and UJO's shares will definitely get them over the 50% hurdle. This may explain why Egdon's 4.35p SP is less than the 4.5p bid price, So, IMO it's pretty well a "done deal". According to UJO's 2021 accounts, they own 13 million Egdon shares, or about 2.52 % of the company. At 4.5p, those shares are now worth £585,000. That's not a bad return for UJo on shares which seem to have cost them only about 1.25p each. I hope they remembered to convert any outstanding warrants!

Heyco and George Yates other associate companies owned 43.8 % of Egdon before today's offer, so the acquisition of Harbour Energy's and UJO's shares will get them over the 50% hurdle. This may explain why Egdon's SP is less than the 4.5p bid price: it's pretty well a "done deal". According to YJO's 2021 accounts, we own 13 million Egdon shares, or about 2.52 % of the company. At 4.5p, these are now worth £585,000 . Not a bad return for shares which seem to have cost UJO only about 1.25p each. I hope they have remembered to convert their warrants!

Exploration. Thanks for your explanation of the situation at Colle Santo. GP

How long it will be until our latest fabulous investment turns sour? I suspect that Italy will prove as difficult a place to develop as is the onshore US. And maybe it's nowhere as easy as is Romania, where we seem to have had little success so far. Only time will tell.

We should have been told that NAMR has submitted an application for the extension of the Parta licence following the expiry of the Phase 1 period on 3 Dec '22, if they have done this, rather than "reading between the lines" of what ADX choses to say about their Romanian licences. As it is, I feel that we still don't know for sure what has happened since then. IMO this isn't good enough for RBD holders.

I thinkl the Parta licence was due to expire in late 2022. Does anyone know if there's an easy way to check the licensing situation in Romania? Thanks.

I'm happy that we seem to have made a decent profit on selling the Claymore Royalty, and I suspect the price we've been paid will emerge at some stage, most likely in the 2023-6 interim results. That's if it's not apparent in the 2022 year end accounts as it's a "post balance sheet event". My other thought is that the buyer may have requested that UJO keeps the price confidential for the time being as the buyer could be in the market for more, and we know that other royalty units were on the cards for UJO at one point.

Hi HOT. That estimated US$ 45 to 50 million cost for one Inishkea well comes from the horses mouth in the form of Europa's Chief Geologist at the recent BEOS conference. The main reason it's so much more expensive than our Serenity well is that it's in much deeper water, has a greater TD, and because Inishkea is located in the much more exposed / stormy North Atlantic as it's offshore Eire, rather than in the more sheltered Central North Sea. So it will require a much heavier duty / more expensive rig.

The share buyback has cost RBD about £3,500 on Day 1- if my maths are OK.

Europa's estimated cost for the Inishkea well is US$ 45 to 50 million. I assume that any company prepared to farm in would value the risked gas reserves at substantially more than that sum. Or, to put it another way, why would they risk their cash to only break even?

On 28 April Rathlin published a West Newton Community Liaison Committee Update but there's no mention there of RBD's "potentially highly significant discovery" at Crawberry Hill, which was made in 2013 before RBD farmed in. I've subsequently wondered why neither Rathlin nor UJO have mentioned this discovery . However, CH is about 20 km west of WN so it's possible that it's irrelevant to the inhabitants of WN or their Community Liaison Committee. But UJO have a 16.665% interest in the licence, so you would think they'd be interested, and that they ,ight have commented rather more than than merely refering to RBD's RNS. The CH well has been released on the UK Geophysical Library's website, so I took a look. Reabold's "potentially highly significant discovery" looks (IMO) to be no more than a minor gas show. Higher up in the Zechstein, there's probably another slightly better - but still minor - gas show in the Brotherton Formation. I've been told by someone who should know that there was no significant structural closure at CH, which is probably why the well was abandoned in the first place. So what's going on here? I'm wondering if the real purpose of this CH "kerfuffle" is to distract us from Rathlin and Reabold's expected failure to fund a 2023 WN well fully? Knowing what we do about them, I wouldn't put it past them. But please note that this is only an opinion.

Hi tonynorstrom. I'm not a geophysicist but I think it's not very likely that we'd see a Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator (DHI ) from a gas accumulation within the Sherwood Sandstone in our Inishkea prospect because of the thick over-lying geological section. However I have seen DHIs in mch shallower Sherwood Sandstone reservoirs in UK Southern North Sea. As to whether the salt would be visible from seismic data; I think it would probably be detectable if it had a significant thickness and / or there was a well at that particular location. Unfortunately the nearest well is at North Corrib and I don't know how much salt woud be required to act as a reservoir seal when the prospect has a complicated history of being buried and then uplifted. Sorry I can't add much more than that.
For Reabold and Baron Oil shareholders the Dunrobin talk at BEOS by Donal O'Driscoll (he's ex-Corallian, and now with RBD) was re-scheduled to a later slot on Weds, so I missed it. There were Dunrobin posters on both the BOIL and RBD booths which looked pretty comprehensive to me but, perhaps because Dunrobin contains only relatively small oil prospects, it didn't seem to draw quite so big an audience at the booths.

I went to BEOS in Islington (the Business & Exploration Opportunities Show) earlier this week and listened carefully to the Inishkea talk by Jamie White, Europa’s Chief Geologist. I also had a pretty thorough look at several posters on display. I liked what I heard and saw regarding the Inishkea and Inishkea West prospects and can see no very good reason why the two adjacent prospects shouldn’t - if they’re successfully drilled - contain a total of between the 968 Bcf (Best Case) and 1,528 Bcf (Mean Case) recoverable reserves as estimated in Europa's Feb ’19 CPR. IMO these are relatively low risk prospects and I prefer West Inishkea of the two as it’s farther away from the lower porosity North Corrib well, which appears to have been more deeply buried. The greatest technical risk for either prospect is that the halite / salt top seal has been ruptured when the prospects were tectonically elevated at an earlier point. However, halite is present above the Triassic Bunter (Sherwood) Sandstone reservoir in all the Corrib wells, at North Corrib and in the other wells in this part of the world, although it’s quite thin in some wells. The other risks to my mind are: 1. Reservoir quality, which isn’t very good in North Corrib (the closest well) but seems OK in all the other wells. 2. The high well cost, which is estimated at about US$ 45 to 50 million. Phew!! However, there seemed to be a lot of interest from conference attendees. So what terms might they get, and how much equity might Europa be left with after a farm-out? The going rate at the moment seems to be about 3 for 2 (that’s pay 100% to earn 66.67%) or, more likely, a slightly lower 4 for 3 promote (pay 100% to earn 75%). This could mean that several medium sized companies or one quite large company might farm in, with Europa being left with 33.3% or - more likely – 25%, which would be OK with me in the circumstances. I’m sorry this is a bit long winded.

Please see the "Inishkea at BEOS on 26th April" postings below. All the beat, GP

Thanks Serif. I was very lucky to be given a deeply discounted ticket as a long term member of the P/GESGB. But unfortunately I will probably have to leave just before the Dunrobin talk to catch a realistically price train home. It's quite possible that Donal O'Driscoll, who is ex-Corallian, will be giving the Dunrobin talk. I know him fairly well, so may be able to get the low-down before the talk. There's also a talk on the Zechstein of NW Europe for those who still love West Newton!!

Hi Serif. I'll be attending the BEOS Conference nest week - at vast personal expense - and will obviously be listening keenly to EOG's Inishkea farm-out presentation. All being well, I will aim to post some brief geological thoughts on the prospect later in the week.

Re: IGas and Glentworth. The latest well approval was by Lincolnshire County Council which is a different body to North Lincs Council. The latter is the body that would give consent for further drilling at Wressle. So I wouldn't read too much into it just yet.