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I agree with the point you make about issuing Directors free shares. This is still dilution to us PI's, it doesnt matter if they issue shares at twice or 10 times the current SP, you just issue twice as many shares or 10 times as many shares as you were going to issue. Its a false idea to think that if they issue themselves shares at twice the current SP PI's will think that the company is worth that much or that the SP will rise above this in the near future. Directors can quite happily sell their share as soon as they are issued and make money, maybe some sort of tax incentive for them I dont know.
http://www.conticoal.com/_content/documents/676.pdf Values COOL at 13c a share which is 9p. However, the valuation of De Witts alone is 21c a share is 14p. So in total they are estimating the vlaue of COOL to be 23p a share. However, Cool do pay brokers to post this sort of information so maybe we should take it with a pinch of salt.
CZA, (coal of Africa) seems to be tipped highly this year, a bigger coal player in South Africa. They have huge reserves and recent funding with a Chinese investor. current SP of around 16p. Techincal analysis is almost identical to COOL in relation to Ichimoku and SMA's that i use. However, CZA has more interest volume and potential for newsflow. But I am not sure on the fundaments if they are vastly different I dont know. Maybe I should take the finger out my arse and be bothered to compare the two companies and understand fundaments in how to value a company and answer the quesiont myself.
Thanks again for your insightful post. Here is my opinion; Technical analysis from my understanding of Ichimoku would state that this is not a buy at this current time, trading below the cloud. Simple moving averages; 200 SMA is slowly moving down to join the 20/50/100/ SMA, over the next month, this often indicates that any movement in SP will be a sharp breakout up or down when the SMA's are tightly packed together. Regarding fundamentals I havent really looked at valuing the company so I can't comment on this in relation to a prospective SP. AGM is planned for end of March, announcmnet of share holder dilution from an Institutional Investor and issuing shares to senior staff instead of salary/bonus. There has to be a justification for this, 1 step back to take 2 steps forward, to develop De Witts possibly? That is the only jewel I can see, their supposed potential flagship coal mine, That you estimate below at costing £160 million to develop....... I honestly feel that if there is no news between now and the AGM, then the SP will obviously drift lower, 2-3p dare I say it. However, is there a potential for a surprise that we are not seeing before the AGM? I was hoping personally for a spike in the SP and I would quickly jump out at a nice profit, long term do i fancy COAL, yes I do, a slow and steady rise eventually but its the old question about risk reward and patienece. Again this is AIM, so I would be tempted to cut my losses and look for the ext flavour of the month where volume and interest is high and news flow in the pipeline.
Thanks for the reply and its nice to hear a balanced view. I read your prevoius posts and can see you were talking about COOL well over 6 months ago before the refreshed hope that kicked off here at the beginning of January 2013 end of December. So AGM March 28th, What would you think is going to happen between now and then. I mean COOL are looking for investors, yet over the past 3 years share holder value has decreased significantly. So is this the bottom? Is this when the tide is going to turn? Surely COOL have to deliver. Someone mentioned if you compared COOL over 3 years it looks very bad. However, if you compare COOL over the past 3 months, it looks pretty good.
I have been reading what the Ozies think of this and they are all doom and gloom about COOL! The SP was flat over there after the (RNS) news and no real volume and having been halted to trade there for a few days I would feel really ****eed off about it. I would certainly feel like taking my cricket bat and ball and going home as well.
My thoughts from the RNS I feel they put a lot of emphasis on clarifying what is core and non core assets and who owns what. This I feel is to set up the next bit of news which I feel will be a JV partnership or sell off of non core assets to either Indian or Chinese interested parties. I get the feeling the board want to expand and ramp up quickly but unfortunately need the extra finance from somewhere to do it.
I can't understand why there was a trading halt in Australia, I thought this was if information may leak to the market and affect the SP dramatically? Secondly, the broker reports and company board seem to be very upbeat about COOL prospects going forward however Personal Investors seem to be quite the opposite and very skeptical and downbeat from COOL's past history. I will look forward to seeing how this unfolds over the coming months.
Probably best we all sell out then if we sat on fair value. Normally the MM's like to put us far below true value, this is AIM.
LOL. Sorry buddy, I didn't relasie there is a poster with that name, appologies. I couldn't understand why it was so quiet here, I'm all in on this share, my entire ISA fund is riding on this. Just the fundamentals, news due soon, massivly undervalued SP and nobody posting, ramping or deramping. I just thought it was strange. Anyway all the best, and look out for the Top Cat or the Cool Cat, or Mouse Trap.......
I could of sworn I heared a mouse fart on here?
Do you concur rajaster?
Yeh I'm holding as well. Its so difficult to buy these shares so I'm not bothered about selling at 20% profit to try and buy back in again cheaper. Retraces, buying opportunities are always going to be there on the way up.
This morning after researching last night, no doubt about it this is undervalued, now it looks like they are gonna sell there SA assets which at 2.8mtpa @ c $55 per ton is working at a net profit after all deductions of 20% of total sales in accordance with brokers figures ( may not be exact) is £19 mill per annum roughly our market cap. That does not include future profits intention is to produce 10mtpa by 2015 and dosn't include jorc Now reading the rns it says interest or part share in future prospects, has to be Botswana, with a 2.2 billion jorc and a further potential 8 billion jorc on another field. assume a 50% share on a 2.2 billion jorc what does someone pay for 1.1 billion tonnes of coal in the ground? Say über conservative $ 1 per tonne that is $1.1 billions dollars £685 million is it an American billion or British billion? Someone say my figures are way out before I let more wee out. Big question here what does someone pay for a hypothetical 50% share in a 2.2 billion ton coal field? NURSE............
Looks like I will be able to afford L2 myself after this re rates if the respective broker reports of 25p and 29p are anything to go bye. I would love to see a bidding war over this. I'm trying really hard to be like the Fonz!
Or are we all cheap skates mug punters on here. lol
Cheers for the reply mate, that explains everything about the situation and why I will leave it alone. .........................I was reading up late last night and saw the RNS on COOL over in Australia, and thought this is going to rocket. Struggled to get in just under 5p this morning. What about yourself? I think I will leave SLIME alone for the time being.
today. I guess none of the rampers have showed up here. Looks like we all got in early. Nice one.
an offer is already on the table, due dilligence been completed by the Indian company. So its probably just name your price and the BOD just need to say YES.