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Thanks for this, I didn't fully grasp the JV split 30% etc....
But with regards to the $3.5 million initial payment that goes to Unico, so Arc have 67% of that, so they get $2,345,000. Ok, I don't think Nick explained that, in the interview earlier he said it goes to Arc and sort of stumbles a bit, so the $3.5 million doesn't go to Arc minerals does it, 67% of it goes to their subsidiary.
Also, in the April RNS it states 'with the balance held by Kopara Investments Ltd'
So I think this is a little misleading and hence no share price rally.
I guess the bet here now is what they find from drilling.
Concern is working capital and what other plans they have for Botswana or anything else.
Taken from the April RNS,
'Arc Minerals is pleased to announce that through its subsidiary, Unico Minerals Limited (Arc Minerals 67% shareholding, with the balance held by Kopara Investments Ltd), it has signed a binding joint venture agreement with a subsidiary of Anglo American plc ("Anglo American") (the "Joint Venture Agreement") in respect of its copper interests in North Western Zambia (the "Joint Venture"). Under the Joint Venture Agreement, Anglo American will have the right to retain up to 70% shareholding in the Joint Venture company based on previously announced exploration expenditures'
Yeh its really confusing, after reading the above I get the impression ARC don't get the funds to do what they want. Also the 30% free carry is it not 67% of the 30% as free carry?
Someone please make it make sense?
Then in the interview just now after the announcement Nick said we don't need to raise funds.
Something isn't right otherwise surely the share price would have risen over 4p at least.
Yep, TGR realised sales price is $827 per ton.
Bres estimated production cost, $499 per ton FOB port. And their weighted average selling price £1,307
So yeh numbers don't lie, instead of a projected $800 per ton profit its realistically today at $300 per ton profit.
And I quote from the presentation "Orom-Cross valuation will rise significantly over next 12 months once DFS is completed". DFS not being completed until end of 2024 if lucky. so 2025 share price should go up.
So a bit misleading the way they word it, rise significantly over next 12 months once DFS is completed, DFS estimated to be completed over 1 year time from now. Wages and other expenses need to be paid before then. So its going to be a long hold before anything meaningful happens, looks like we have to get through WWIII first. All in my opinion.
The $5 million DFC announcement isn't moving the share price up, so the next bit of real news would be DFS complete which is end of 2024. So between now and then (12 months) its stuck here and the risk of a fund raise to pay wages increases.
I'm long the stock before anyone says I'm trying to lower the share price with doom and gloom, just trying to be objective.
I actually want the price to go up and multi bag Music Man.
I'm just stating what I see happening, price action says everything.
You honestly think todays news only warrants a 15% rise today?
Say we get the DFC money $1 mil, can Mike not use that money for the next stage, get the next bit of funding money $1 mil from the DFC then we use that money again and so on? The issue I have is what is the step by step game plan, Mike never articulates in explaining this.
The presentation that was knocked up suggests they had this news a few days ago at least. Bres has always been a leaky ship, so the price action today or the past few week for that matter suggests something not quite right. Placing already done maybe, dropping this news on a Friday as well, from my experience its bad news on a Friday and good news on a Monday, so rushed out maybe to try and stop the drop.
We were above 6p back on rumour of the DFC earlier in the year. Now we get it and its below 5p, utter joke. I know AIM is a cesspit where most 'investors' come to die, but is there nobody with any integrity. I see Mikes interviews were scripted, does he not know his own company, delivering apparently company changing positive news but nervous as hell and has to read a script. People are still asking questions about how the funding works and what the next steps are. Just my frustrated opinion obviously.
The Company recently announced it had passed the key screening hurdles by the Development Finance Corporation (“DFC”) regarding a US$4.5M Technical Assistance Grant (“TAG”) to fund 50% of the DFS. The Company expects to complete the process of obtaining the TAG with DFC over the coming weeks and then be able to draw down funds for the DFS work. The net proceeds allows the Company to avoid any immediate delay to the DFS programme whilst the DFC grant is being finalised.
Its been over 3 months and not a word about it, another lifestyle company it seems, all in my opinion.
Of course DOID want the Asset, but they will get it on the cheap. Doing the Due Diligence is a given. Being smart people and great negotiators which can be more than said for our Chairman, no other parties interested and open ended time to decide, such great negotiation skills from out Chairman, all the time, Share Price gets smashed they will make it even more of a bargain for themselves and take ARS out on the cheap.
Also why would DOID go through with the original deal now Asiamet is worth less than £30 million and the copper price is down. They can pick the whole company up for much less that their original offer. The Company Share Price hasn't been this low since March 2020, over two years of zero value and company destruction.
Interview out with the new CEO on youtube, its only the Due Diligence being complete, completely separate to the finance/deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfTfdCKX4zc
So the announcement will be, Due Diligence complete, great, it means nothing.
So yeh, the share price is tanking, as discussed before, DOID have ARS over a barrel, absolute amateurs running this company. Incompetent, most retail investors could figure this out a mile off with just basic intelligence and common sense.
A complete and utter joke this.
All in my opinion of course.
Various reasons but basically the market has realised that DOID have ARS over a barrel.
For a small cap stock, the upside is barely 100% if we are lucky on a binary bet if we think DOID are going to be generous, and why would they.
If I was DOID I would let ARS go to the wall and pick it up even cheaper, they paid 2p for a reason, why pay anymore.
DOID can just take the ****, so its un-investable and we have to wait another 2 x months for this low chance bet to happen.
The Share Price action says it all, people pushing this must either be dumping stock or paid to promote or both.
All in my opinion of course.
So 6 x week (end of H1) just for DOID to complete their Due Diligence, I'm sure this will be missed or extended.
Then time to make decision, so could be 2-3 x months at least, that takes us to July/August.
Today was a nice resource update but sentiment is so shot to pieces nothing will make the share price go up until DOID complete the deal. So its a 50/50 bet, although it appears that it favours more DOID will not complete the deal with this lack of sentiment.
But the issue here is another 2-3 x months to wait at least, so staying around 2p until then it seems.
No idea if we need a fund raise anytime soon, depressing times holding this stock.
Even still if DOID do complete, they can take this out on the cheap, no asymmetric upside with regards to risking your money. from 2p to 3p-4p if we are lucky.
I still hold, but furious at myself for not selling up when we hit 3p and then fell below, that was the sign to get out.
Hi Olderandwiser,
I was just going off Landore website.
Although I'm thinking its not being updated that often.
But just going off the May and July 2022 Warrants that they can exercise is 20,000,000 @20p is circa £4 million,
Cenkos estimate needing $7.5 million (Canadian Dollars) for Future July drilling plan which is £4.7 million GBP in todays RNS document.
But Sportbilly1976 also highlighted the Lithoquest option money coming in - $250k in cash and $500k in convertibles in July, not including the $750k in cash & convertibles already received.
So we might be covered for the drilling costs, not sure if Bill will disclose the current funding situation at the shareholder event. Or maybe that's why he has come to shake his can.
Bloody hell, for the whole company.
Surely this makes it uninventable doesn't it for a microcap?
I don't understand why everyone is so bullish and ramping it on other social media platforms if these are the facts.
Where do they get the £1 and £2 targets from? When the house broker values it at 53p.
So house broker Cenkos valuing the Gold project (23p-53p) 130% upside, not exactly asymmetric upside.
Although I believe this is just the gold asset, no value mentioned on the other assets.
Also this is on a Gold price of $1,800.
Hopefully some probing questions will be asked with regards to funding the drilling campaign at the investor presentation, how much cash we have left and the warrants being exercised.
Surely no fund raise below 20p, just depends if they lace it with a ridiculous amount of low priced warrants again.
Ah my bad, its in Canadian Dollars the $7.5m.
So 20 million warrants at 20p is £4,000,000 (GBP)
£4m = $6.3 Million Canadian dollars
So we are about $1,200,000 Canadian dollars short.
Is that right, can someone double check this?