Member Info for GreenWolf

Brown - You say you've worked in Rukwa and the heavy rains start in March, yet the facts I see, several RNSs (and annual report) and the Tourist Board info shows we have one rainy season between November and April. I also recall floods in Sumbawanga at the end of 2020 / early 2021 due to heavy rains?

I'm genuinely interested in clearing up the apparent disparity.

There's a very interesting Directors Talk interview with Nick on 6 May 2021.

That's our future - we raised c£2.5m in May. I suspect with the Lind repayment and costs hitting our P&L of around £100k per month we've well over £1.5m left - I'd like an update on where we're going with that.

We've been playing with the mining for nigh on four years. I think it's time we did a Kibo and look to offload it and see where our new strategy is going to take us.

Brown - but therein lies one of our key issues.

We've actually no idea between us what we are getting per tonne of coal. I've always considered that the price of coal is related to its quality and calorific value, which is why the price can vary substantially across grades and locations.

We made c£30k in revenue last year - yes, we were significantly hampered by Covid, but according to RNSs we still mined in March (and sold 500t) and recommenced operations again in mid August. So what did we actually sell to get to that c£30k?

BTW, I've no desire to argue over the climate and I've no evidence to doubt you haven't worked in Rukwa, but I don't agree the rainy season is March to May. There's even a further bit in our Annual Results
"Rukwa and the complete Western Highlands region experienced an extended weather event during the 2019-20 wet season with extensive rains from December 2019 to April 2020. This again impacted production in the first quarter of 2020"

This is one of our major obstacles to getting to economies of scale - we never quite know how that long rainy season is actually going to impact us.

No need for the abuse.
But..if you're right then the Tanzania Tourist Board and Alistair Muir's RNS of 27th Feb 2020 are both wrong.

Sorry Brown. That's not correct.
Third paragraph, last sentence
https://www.tanzaniatourism.go.tz/en/tanzania/facts/climate
There's also a RNS from February 2020 that talks about the impact of the rainy season

Brown - the rainy season is not four months away. We've had that debate several times on here.

Our last interims and annual report showed we are losing c£100k a month. That's some gap to close and we're not going to do it with a few thousand tonnes of coal a month.

Well, going in the right direction.....so, so slowly. And we're undoubtedly still burning the cash each month.
Just the small problem of the rainy season coming.
At this rate we'll break even in about four years....
Personally I simply can't see us ever getting there.

Sausage - a fair few of us have been here long enough to understand what "no news" tends to mean....

Just seen the posts. This is very sad news and agree with bigboffer around the squabbles etc. Unfortunately it is tragic events like this that do bring it all into perspective. RIP Aerial.

Sausage - because that is AIM all over. Promise the moon and deliver....cheese.

You have to go back to why the RCPP failed - forget TZ gov "pulling the plug" - if there was a really solid business case and money to be made, the Chinese would have been all over this years ago. Sinohydro simply disappeared, ILTL deal seems to be evaporating into nothing...why? Because, as we have found out after 4yrs of trying, the business model doesn't work.

I think we're stuffed as far as a CFPP goes, personally...
https://www.africanews.com/2021/10/13/5-african-countries-still-have-coal-plants-planned-despite-global-momentum-for-no-new-coal//
What we need is an update on this new strategy and where that £2.5m (or whatever is left) is going to be invested.

Esquimo - I honestly like your positivity but in reality.....

How much coal are we going to need to mine to support a CFPP? 30,000t per month? 50,000t per month? And this is a monthly average - with a rainy period of c5/6 months, you need to bolster production in the dry season as a risk management measure. You can't not have coal ready to go into the power station.

I don't actually agree that Rufus' production forecasts were crazy - if anything they were hugely conservative.

Unfortunately our mining model doesn't work. That's the hard fact that all of us as shareholders have to accept.

And whatever keeps getting said about "discussions" with TZ gov, there is no commercial model or money as things stand for a CFPP. Where exactly is the TZ government getting that money from, because it wont be China. And how long is it going to build if we ever get the finance?

And what has happened to ILTL.....?

It is all conjecture and hope - as it's been for 10years plus......nothing has changed.

The other point to consider is "how good is our coal?"
There are a lot of references to trial shipments - why is that?

Bullish - I hope you're right, but we were discussing on here back in early May about the placing, new investors, potential positives etc etc. Unfortunately a number of long termers have seen it all before, many times.

I suspect, but clearly cannot prove, that a fair number of those placing shares have been sold on the drop down to 22.5p. We were at 38p on 5th May.....

Gwynwin - I accept that, but what were the excuses between October 2017 and March 2020.....?
There was lots of talk of 10,000t per month during 2018 in our RNSs.

Pi - with regards to rains, depends who you ask
Our single rainy season is October to April/May
https://www.tanzaniatourism.go.tz/en/tanzania/facts/climate

Yawn...more jam tomorrow.
I suspect the ILTL deal us dead.
400t in two weeks and ramped up production, but still nowhere near where we need to be.
I just don't see the point of that RNS personally.

I suspect those results are already priced in at this level.

Group operating loss has actually increased over H1 2020 from c£570k to c£585k driven by higher cost of sales and higher admin expenses.

£28k of revenue in 6months.

And not much to go on in terms of post period sales updates.

We'll just have to wait until June 2022 then....

Teaye - I suspect it is still the drip, drip of placing shares......
That bid looks like it's going to drop if we get many more sells over the coming days.
Need some positive news Alistair

I've been expecting things for years, as have others.

We've spent millions and achieved.....what exactly? Nothing in terms of shareholder value. If you're a long term holder and not traded or averaged down, you must be looking at about 5% left of your initial investment. If all my investments did that I'd be living in a tent.

Our business model was built on RCPP as far back as September 2013 (the scoping study). We then got RAFCO on board to look at investment partners, Lahmeyer undertaking the Power Plant Feasibility Study, Sinohydro etc etc.
September 2013 RNS snippet " We will also engage in discussions with TANESCO and other parties regarding a long term power off take agreement."
August 2021 RNS snippet "with discussions with the Tanzanian Government on power station supply options planned for September 2021."

In eight years we've seemingly achieved little towards the RCPP but chase our tails and go round in some very large and expensive circles.

It's the guessing which brings frustration, which brings the dissatisfaction, which brings invested people like me to look back at the past and feel like we've never really moved forward since the excitement of the Scoping Study and the hope for RCPP...eight years ago.

And worst of all, the market sees it.

Only our BoD can change that - jam today RNSs needed Alistair.