The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Esquimo - I like your logic around the impact of the next RNS..
Seriously though, why would we need a fundraise? Have you heard rumours?
Esquimo - as Diggerman mentioned on Saturday morning - the power plant is a non-starter. We can chat about it with TZ gov as much as we like. There's no business case and there's no money for it. Our hope was the Chinese bank rolling it but that avenue is now closed. RCPP has gone I'm afraid.
Most AIM companies feed on the more to come sentiment. We've managed it here for approaching 12years now.
Coal is our only source of income, but given we lose c£100k a month on it we may as well not be doing it. That is why the ILTL deal was so significant for us. Why it hasn't happened is really anyone's guess.
Our best chance of success is we get the coal mining to break even and perhaps a small operating profit and then have a significant other revenue stream from something else. That strategic investment money that we are slowly but surely eating into is the key to our future.
Bullish - I hope you're right. We need some visibility on the strategy.
Not sure I would agree the majority of stock is in safe hands. We have Spreadex, Monecor and Intertrader all having significant positions here. Nowhere, still, have I seen TR1s for our major investors.
Alastair needs to stop both us IIs and the market hypothesising and guessing what's going on, because unfortunately no news in the past has usually not been good news. GLA
The market is clearly leaning to the bearish sentiment unfortunately.
Not that many of us say this phrase often on here...we need news!
The Interims Results are quite telling - the last section in the main bit (before notes) is the Consolidated Cash Flow Statement. It includes the c£3.4m we raised last year (Jan and May), c£430k payment to Lind etc.
At the end of June 2021, we had c£1.87m left. We have been losing £100k a month.
So by my very rough calculation we have c£1.3m left. That will keep the lights on this year unless we can start making significant inroads into our mining, which we can't really be doing at the moment because it's the rainy season. So where is the actual money for any tangible investments?
And do any of us think smart guys like Tony and RAB don't understand those financial figures?
The interesting point to note about our strategic investors is nowhere have I seen a TR1, so their shares are held in nominee accounts. The share price here was 35p or above for most of May. That's a quick 40% return if you wanted to trade in the background.....
As a going concern we simply don't have the time to be patient.
Sausage
We have systematically failed as a business since October 2017 with an operational plan that simply doesn't work. The climate in this area has a significant bearing on our mining which means between April and November we need to be selling way above our break even target to mitigate the potential risks of the rainy season. We simply don't seem to be able to get there, we've spent well over four years trying and probably lost c£5million in the process.
There is no CPP plan - none, as it's all talk - and to get to a point where a RNS was released saying "start of power production" could be 5years plus away. Given COP26 and the fact we would need a consistent supply of coal of probably tens of thousands of tonnes every month, do we really think that will ever happen? I just can't see it.
The biggest frustration for me over the last year has been the consolidation, because it generally flattens the price volatility and makes trading down your average more difficult.
Esquimo's post earlier sort of sums up where I am - perhaps one positive is IIs still feel there is an investment case, but as I've posted before, I tend to take that with a pinch of salt given we've seen no TR1s. That says a lot about whether it's actually long term investment or a quick buck.
So, that leaves me with no current investment case for PIs if I'm honest, but then I only have myself to blame for still being here. This was one of my earliest forays into shares and I have, to my own cost, become emotionally attached to Edenville hence why even when I have sold up several times in the past I've somehow found a reason to convince myself to buy back. Therein lies a lesson.
Genuinely GLA, but unless Alastair has a warren of rabbits in his hat, I'm just not convinced.
As much as one or two on here still disagree with me about when the rainy season is, it is here.
I don't have the time to follow the weather that closely in the region to know exactly how bad or otherwise the weather has been. But we had substantial floods in December 2020 / January 2021 and it is something that has occurred several times before in the region so we know heavy rainfall is a real risk. The key is always how bad it is and to what extent it limits our extraction and processing of the coal.
It's been mentioned in previous RNSs - eg "Rukwa and the complete Western Highlands region experienced an extended weather event during the 2019-20 wet season with extensive rains from December 2019 to April 2020".
Whether our operations were impacted in December is anyone's guess, until AM tells us.
Sausage - it must be obvious to even the most bullish of PIs; there is always an excuse for things not quite turning out right, as there has been since October 2017.
I am truly hopeful that a delay in our December figures is due to there being good news, but our historic form on there being no news is normally because it's not good news.
I continue to be frustrated and bearish I'm afraid, but GLA.
There was almost a twinge of excitement when I saw we had a RNS at 7am.....almost
Come on Alistair - you could have bolted an operational update onto that RNS - it really doesn't take a week and a half to pull together the figures from December.
Not sure we need a placing? Even our BoD surely couldn't burn through a c£2.5m placing in, what, under 8 months? Plus the £900k they raised this time last year......
Operationally our accounts tend to suggest we're losing c£100k per month, but hopefully that will be less given the (limited) revenue we have been earning over H2 2021. Although we wont really know the potential upside of that revenue until the Annual Report in June 2022. In the interim, we're just guessing as investors as to how much money we are / aren't making, unless of course we get some tangible revenue figures from Alistair. I suspect we won't.
I also don't expect the operational update RNS to be quite as timely as previous months given the break over Xmas, but they do need to keep it going each month. GLA
In all honesty Sausage, I don't read it that way. There are a few other shares across the board that have similar RNSs. It is a process driven RNS than anything to be worried about.
That said, I was hoping for a different RNS to the one this morning.....let's see what the next few days bring for us. GLA
Let's hope January 2022 brings us the new year cheer we've been missing for the last four years.....
Merry Xmas all
Sausage - you were talking about 10000tonnes per month...and I saw a pig fly past...and your name is Sausage...and there was no pun intended
Sausage - no pun intended but I've just seen a pig fly past....
The thing to consider with some IIs is...where is the TR1?
Nobody sinks £1m into a very high risk AIM stock without some serious risk mitigation. I suspect that mitigation strategy is being managed by one of our nominee holders. What they are doing in the background is anyone's guess.
Look at it this way - Tony bought his shares at 25p - the share price throughout the whole of May was 35p+ or an easy 40%...
Anyone remember the Brian McMaster loan of £100k in November 2019....repaid in February 2020 for £120k.
As most of us on here know, you don't get (or stay) rich by leaving big chunks of money in AIM shares
Sorry, been watching some paint dry....
Is that you again?!!
I vaguely recollect posts from Diggerman saying they only had one excavator.
I've interpreted today's RNS that they only have one - "the excavator"
"November 2021 was both positive and frustrating. On the one hand ROM production continued to improve, but sadly operations were hampered by the excavator being offline for half of the month"
If we have so much clarity on orders from clients, why are we not hiring in additional plant? That makes no sense to me.
If you had been digging with a spoon you would undoubtedly have been more successful sandal
Pi - "so now we have a problem"...how long have you been here??!!!
We have endless problems . I'm convinced Alistair needs an agony aunt, not coal sales.
I have seen nothing in the last four plus years to convince me our mining business model works and I think ILTL have potentially seen the same...and I think they will walk unless we can convince them otherwise.
I so want to be wrong, but we keep going round in this great big circle and we seemingly get nowhere. Yet another calendar year slowly coming to a frustrating end.