Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Pi - "so now we have a problem"...how long have you been here??!!!
We have endless problems . I'm convinced Alistair needs an agony aunt, not coal sales.
I have seen nothing in the last four plus years to convince me our mining business model works and I think ILTL have potentially seen the same...and I think they will walk unless we can convince them otherwise.
I so want to be wrong, but we keep going round in this great big circle and we seemingly get nowhere. Yet another calendar year slowly coming to a frustrating end.
Tonno - I actually don't disagree, but we have been waiting on glimmers of hope for way too long. The share price demonstrates what the market thinks.
"The wash plant is now processing material to fulfil requests for coal that have already been made. Management expects production levels to increase over the coming months and are currently targeting production of at least 10,000 tonnes per month by January 2018" - that was 9th October 2017.
It's just one issue after another...and the market is clearly tired of the continued reasons / excuses.
Yawn, more issues. And Alistair is preparing us all for the great weather ahead.
Although if you believe some posters, who have allegedly worked in Rukwa, the rainy season isn't until March.
I agree esquimo - nothing on CPP talks, which would at least give us some visibility of what's going on with regards to that
But then still nothing on where we are meant to be investing that c£2m from May....
A really inspirational RNS as an Xmas present would have been nice Alistair. Here's to 2022 then. GLA
I suspect we could probably build a small CFPP near Rukwa in a few years, but we've got to go through the process of getting to build approval first. That timeline doesn't bear thinking about as things stand.
With no-one currently saying they'll pay for it, you're back to square one in terms of feasibility study, commercial VfM / BCR etc.
Like I said earlier, at the moment it is still nothing but a pure dream regarding the a CFPP business model.
But, if (and it is a big if) we can actually get to breakeven, that changes things massively, because we can then potentially wait on the sidelines for something bigger to come along. The potential downside is shareholder return, whatever that means. GLA
Indeed they are, but I'm not aware they've started building it (are they still going through land compensation?). Wasn't it a 10year build programme?
There is no commitment or funding for a CFPP - we can't raise that sort of money and I can't see the Tanzanian government finding a big enough sofa with the kind of money they need stuffed down the back of it. The World Bank don't fund CFPPs anymore and China's investment in power stations is now locally focused.
The interconnector and sub-station brings opportunity, but it doesn't get away from the need for a very large capital outlay on a power plant. And there is also the question as to whether the business case can still stack up given the potential phase out following COP26.
It is still, 8years+ in the making, a dream for us as shareholders. Nothing more, yet.
September 2013 - we published the results from the scoping study which recommended a coal to power project.
Over 8 years ago. I dread to think how much money we have raised over that time, although I'm sure plenty understand how much it's diluted their investment.
There's just one small detail - who's paying for the / these CFPPs?
Brown - You say you've worked in Rukwa and the heavy rains start in March, yet the facts I see, several RNSs (and annual report) and the Tourist Board info shows we have one rainy season between November and April. I also recall floods in Sumbawanga at the end of 2020 / early 2021 due to heavy rains?
I'm genuinely interested in clearing up the apparent disparity.
There's a very interesting Directors Talk interview with Nick on 6 May 2021.
That's our future - we raised c£2.5m in May. I suspect with the Lind repayment and costs hitting our P&L of around £100k per month we've well over £1.5m left - I'd like an update on where we're going with that.
We've been playing with the mining for nigh on four years. I think it's time we did a Kibo and look to offload it and see where our new strategy is going to take us.
Brown - but therein lies one of our key issues.
We've actually no idea between us what we are getting per tonne of coal. I've always considered that the price of coal is related to its quality and calorific value, which is why the price can vary substantially across grades and locations.
We made c£30k in revenue last year - yes, we were significantly hampered by Covid, but according to RNSs we still mined in March (and sold 500t) and recommenced operations again in mid August. So what did we actually sell to get to that c£30k?
BTW, I've no desire to argue over the climate and I've no evidence to doubt you haven't worked in Rukwa, but I don't agree the rainy season is March to May. There's even a further bit in our Annual Results
"Rukwa and the complete Western Highlands region experienced an extended weather event during the 2019-20 wet season with extensive rains from December 2019 to April 2020. This again impacted production in the first quarter of 2020"
This is one of our major obstacles to getting to economies of scale - we never quite know how that long rainy season is actually going to impact us.
No need for the abuse.
But..if you're right then the Tanzania Tourist Board and Alistair Muir's RNS of 27th Feb 2020 are both wrong.
Sorry Brown. That's not correct.
Third paragraph, last sentence
https://www.tanzaniatourism.go.tz/en/tanzania/facts/climate
There's also a RNS from February 2020 that talks about the impact of the rainy season
Brown - the rainy season is not four months away. We've had that debate several times on here.
Our last interims and annual report showed we are losing c£100k a month. That's some gap to close and we're not going to do it with a few thousand tonnes of coal a month.
Well, going in the right direction.....so, so slowly. And we're undoubtedly still burning the cash each month.
Just the small problem of the rainy season coming.
At this rate we'll break even in about four years....
Personally I simply can't see us ever getting there.
Sausage - a fair few of us have been here long enough to understand what "no news" tends to mean....
Just seen the posts. This is very sad news and agree with bigboffer around the squabbles etc. Unfortunately it is tragic events like this that do bring it all into perspective. RIP Aerial.
Sausage - because that is AIM all over. Promise the moon and deliver....cheese.
You have to go back to why the RCPP failed - forget TZ gov "pulling the plug" - if there was a really solid business case and money to be made, the Chinese would have been all over this years ago. Sinohydro simply disappeared, ILTL deal seems to be evaporating into nothing...why? Because, as we have found out after 4yrs of trying, the business model doesn't work.
I think we're stuffed as far as a CFPP goes, personally...
https://www.africanews.com/2021/10/13/5-african-countries-still-have-coal-plants-planned-despite-global-momentum-for-no-new-coal//
What we need is an update on this new strategy and where that £2.5m (or whatever is left) is going to be invested.
Esquimo - I honestly like your positivity but in reality.....
How much coal are we going to need to mine to support a CFPP? 30,000t per month? 50,000t per month? And this is a monthly average - with a rainy period of c5/6 months, you need to bolster production in the dry season as a risk management measure. You can't not have coal ready to go into the power station.
I don't actually agree that Rufus' production forecasts were crazy - if anything they were hugely conservative.
Unfortunately our mining model doesn't work. That's the hard fact that all of us as shareholders have to accept.
And whatever keeps getting said about "discussions" with TZ gov, there is no commercial model or money as things stand for a CFPP. Where exactly is the TZ government getting that money from, because it wont be China. And how long is it going to build if we ever get the finance?
And what has happened to ILTL.....?
It is all conjecture and hope - as it's been for 10years plus......nothing has changed.