Member Info for greenshaw

I'm not qualified to speculate on buy vs sell but I did ask AI (ChatGPT o3) and it had this to say (usual caveats about AI getting it wrong):

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What the public tape shows

Time-stamp (BST) Price (GBp) Size (shrs) Publication note Flag Shown as B/S Source

14:29:06 8.41 1,739,828 Delayed publication (print released after 16:35) “O” off-book ordinary Unknown

The trade prints about 2–3 ticks below the inside touch that was visible when it finally appeared (8.60 / 8.90).

Likely direction

Because the print is off-book, deferred and lands inside the day’s traded range (morning low 8.40, high 8.75), it is almost certainly a risk-transfer cross between two brokers rather than an aggressor hitting the lit order book. Direction is therefore opaque, but two clues tilt it toward buy-initiated:

1. Price action just after 14:29 – the next lit prints (14:29:08-14:30) on most data feeds stayed 8.42-8.48 and the stock drifted up, closing on the day’s high. When a very large sell is printed late you usually see a brief wobble lower instead.

2. Deferral rule 3030 – a broker can request end-of-day publication only if the block is ≥ Large-in-Scale (≈ €425k notional/25× EMS for an AIM name) and if they are dealing on own account versus a customer. In practice the broker who buys the stock from a market-maker is the one that asks for the delay so they can unwind the risk.

Put together, the trade looks like an institution buying ~£146k of stock in one go, with the broker printing it slightly below mid to reflect the size discount.

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And the difference between then and now is lower sentiment and more evidence that this project will in fact work. So while I wouldn't bet on it either (in the short term), I wouldn't be surprised. It might be one positive story that captures enough people's imagination to send it up to 60p. But we can also assume a good % of portfolio companies will fail along the way, so if we have a few of those before the good news stories we could easily be back at 4p..

Enjoy the ride!

Agreed, and just to point out (regarding the 'American thesis' and us not understanding Vistry) the "partnership arm" is not an arm, it's the entire business going forwards, as the traditional housebuilding business is being entirely wrapped up.

@Crossley

Just to answer your question "What is it with all these Americans, with their expert view on UK housebuilding, in particular VTY?"

The thesis (by those Americans) is that it's us who don't understand Vistry because we assume it's a housebuilder like any other when in fact it's a partnerships business which we've never seen over here. They have seen one, called NVR, which has a write up from something like 2001 on Value Inverstors Club, and that write up effectively presents the Vistry thesis 25 years ago. It turns out that thesis was correct for NVR - it's done something like 40x. The set up for VTY seems similar if not better due to recent planning reform and political will on all sides. So the plan is the same and there's an NVR board member on the VTY board. We'll see if the outcome is the same...

JM recently said he prefers Onego bio to Solarfoods out of the two Finnish companies (and he probably shouldn't say that!) but they do both look promising. I do think he's right that Onego has the biggest potential - IMO maybe the biggest out of the whole portfolio when you consider how much egg white is used in mass produced foods and the desire from those big food companies for stability in supply/price.

Many years of negligence will indeed be a complex and time consuming thing to fix, even for people who genuinely believe it needs to be. Now let's allow this place to return to the topic of Vistry. It seems there's a high likelihood that funding announced by the government at the end of March (£2B) wasn't included in Vistry's numbers for Q1 so I'm hopeful the Q2 update this Thursday will include some good news beyond what is anticipated.

BBC News - Reform MP loses whip after business Covid loan claims

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n1dxl8wwo

Don't be tricked by these people.

And here's a fun fact for you. People think the UK economy has been performing terribly for decades and that the S&P500 has outperformed it massively. Since 2001 to now, if you compare the FTSE 250 to the S&P500 (index with dividends reinvested) the performance between the two has been almost exactly the same. The big difference between the performance of the two indexes is in when they had their good performance. The S&P500 had poor performance for the first half of that time period and good performance for the second half. The FTSE250 had good performance for the first half and bad performance for the second half.

I'm not suggesting that's entirely down to who was in government throughout that period...

Just for balance of opinion, so that others reading this forum don't see a one sided view, even though I think this is not the place to discuss politics in general; I completely disagree with giantsquid. I think Reform are divisive - they depend on demonizing others and dividing people. They lie in order to convince you that the biggest issue is immigration, (I think border security is a serious issue that needs addressing) but Reform want to redirect you to that issue and distract you from the issues that might harm all of us much more. They need to do that because it's the only way to divide people and trick people who will be worse off with Reform in power into voting for them. Regardless of whether we are working class or middle class, have left or right leaning political views - the big issue is growing inequality (the growing gap between people with 10s of millions in assets and everyone else). If middle class doctors and teachers and small company owners can't afford houses and evenings out in restaurants occasionally, the economy will crash and burn. Reform entirely rely on tricking working class people who can't afford those things into thinking they will be better off if we keep the immigrants out and get Reform in power. They just want you angry about that issue. We need border security but we also need immigration as we don't have enough doctors.

The reason you can't get a GP appointment is not because of illegal immigrants taking all the appointments, it's because the Tories gutted the NHS because they represent rich people who can pay for private treatment. They don't believe in public services like healthcare, they believe in getting medical treatment if you can afford it. Just like Reform.

I think Labour are a positive for Vistry as a company in particular and my current thinking is that Vistry will do very well over the next 5 years. I'm likely to sell some of my UK equities if Reform play more of a role in Government in the future.

Good luck everyone.

Oh wise and bearish tool, how should sclp fund development of mabs? They are worth precisely nothing if we can't, won't and don't do anything with them, so what do we do with them and how do we fund it, if not via the current plan that all us other 'idiots' (except for you) like the sound of?

I think it's best to think of scinv as here to answer the question "What is the worst case scenario way of thinking about 'x' if someone were to jump to conclusions without taking time to contemplate in a rational way". Yes it means he's going to jump to the conclusion that you're an idiot and say so, he's going to say this and that is a fraud and you're being ripped off. Out of context it's rude, obnoxious and irrational. But once you know it for what it is he's just the winnowing to remove the chaff, the suffering on the path to enlightenment, a useful bearish tool.

You misread, misinterpreted and misquoted me because you were distracted by your own ego. You posted seconds after 7am quoting your own post, missing (again) what the RNS was really about, because you were distracted by your own ego. You now claim you're still right because actually this means dilution and is bad for shareholders, because you're not looking at reality, you're looking at an overinflated and rather ugly illusion.

Great news today. Some dilution is possible at some point as it was before this news, and it doesn't bother me at all.

I was disappointed it didn't mention the lack of antibiotics, diseases, heavy metals and other contamination in cultured meat and fish. I'm my mind it's what won't be in the final products that will make it healthier than current processed meat products.

Ego.

Here's another opinion if anyone is interested.

https://youtu.be/cTAnqCrsQWo

Https://youtu.be/arJLy3hX1E8

Scinv, are you actually Donald Trump? Because you use the exact same tactics, stating facts when there's clear evidence they're not true, the exact same (LOSER) insults, the exact same adolescent uppercase emphasis, and you possess the exact same narcissism.

I pointed out that my one and only post on FX is to draw attention to the fact ii charge a large FX fee if you buy foreign stocks in response to someone asking for opinions of brokers, and after pointing that out you repeat lies about FX trading (which I've never done or talked about).

Who are you talking to when you talk about me in the third person? Do you think anyone here buys a word you say?

I've now realised that the mis-reading, mis-judging, mis-attributing you've done in the last few posts about me is all I need to know when it comes to the more important question of whether to give your opinion on this company and its past actions (or frankly anything) any weight at all.

I wish you well.

I do actually love both hiking and running, even in the rain, and only off road 😊

Scinv this is just more evidence of what I'm talking about. The FX trading post you're talking about you mis-read, you mis-judged. You jumped to a conclusion and got it wrong. Go and re-read it. What I said in that post is that interactive investor charge an extremely high FX spread, which is a hidden charge in their business model which I think is sleazy. It applies on all foreign company transactions (3 of my companies are foreign).

And as for me being a loser, if one day I turn out to lose, so be it. I don't mind. It was an interesting journey. Right now I'm up 25% YTD and I compounded at 30% last year and the year before. And, all 7 of my companies are in the green ;)

If one day it turns out that you're the loser, I won't rub it in like you would. I'll wish you all the best.

@scinv Structured investments, quantitative trading?! I'm not sure whether to take that as an insult or a complement!

Actually if you must know I work in IT - mostly infrastructure and security projects, and have never had anything to do with finance or investing professionally. My investment strategy is to consume lots of information, interviews, etc., mostly listening to people who I consider experts (unlike me), and aiming to find contrarian opinions (much like your own), across fundamental value investing ideas, tech, macroeconomics, geopolitics, etc. My portfolio consists of 7 companies, nothing else. 2 companies I consider to be highly speculative with a chance of a very high return - 5 companies I consider to be relatively low risk, margin of safety value investments that should as a base case cover the losses from the speculative investments should the 2 high risk bets go to zero and possibly do mich better than that.

Obviously Scancell is one of the two relatively high risk bets. I'm open to the idea that those two bets are bad ideas and that I should stick to value investing.

I apologise if the spectrum comment touched a nerve, I don't think there's anything wrong with it - quite the contrary. I would value you contrarian opinion much more if you weren't so egotistical though. You see other people as either stupid (people here) or malicious (Scancell) and are incredibly judgemental while lacking sufficient evidence. I genuinely suggest you go and contemplate your behaviour and how it alienates people.

If you think Scancell has a 20% chance of success (I assume success = a SP significantly > 50), why don't you buy? I don't think you're a 100% Munger/Buffett style never-lose-money investor since you already owned this and it was speculative back then. Is it just because of the grudge?

Have you pushed them for an answer on the RNS that you claim is a lie? I'm not making a judgement on whether it was a lie, deception, mistake, or what. I simple don't know. But I do think your judgement on the company has become very much clouded based on a perceived deception, and hanging around here being rude to people is not benefiting you. So how about you talk to them, do some exercise, meditate a little, resolve the trauma and move on to a better future and a better you?