Member Info for greenshaw

I asked AI (o3) about it to try to understand more (so usual caveats about AI being wrong). As I understand it now, because the options are unapproved (not EMI), income tax and NI are payable on the spread. So right now that's around £21k (£9k tax assuming higher rate).

I was thinking excercising now seems very risky if they aren't sure which way the readout will go, surely the spread is too tight to take a tiny profit before results. Bad results mean we're under 8.15p.. If the shares re-rate to e.g., 25p on good news, instead of the £9k they owe now in tax and NI, they would owe more like £79k.

AI also mentioned it could be Richard Goodfellow or John Chiplin, along with the 3 names already mentioned.

Worst case seems to be that they don't know but think there might be a good chance of good news and want to bet money on it to avoid tax. That seems unlikely if they aren't very confident. Otherwise it seems to be that they know they need to act now to avoid a much bigger tax bill..

I saw more big trades yesterday but I don't think we'll find out who unless it gets to 3% of ANIC. Assuming it is the same buyer I don't think they've reached 1% yet but who knows. I don't think it's JM though as I think he would just buy them all in one go and not worry about moving the SP - I think someone wants to accumulate without pushing up the share price. I might be wrong..

It seems like the pace of news stories about the sector are picking up. It feels like we're approaching a tipping point - and that tipping point started to be priced in last week.

I do wonder what everyone will settle on calling this stuff. Lab grown is still winning but surely won't hold long term. I doubt we will succeed with "clean food" as it isn't neutral enough.

BBC News - Lab-grown cheese is coming. But would you eat it?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98jjgqyd6po

Don't you think it's likely that they would've been very careful to make absolutely sure they remain in guidance after what happened last year and would not have reduced debt further than expected if they were concerned about not hitting targets?

Bit odd of you to invest in the company previously then?

Are all the scientists at scamcell (as you call them) in on the massive fraud (as you call it)?

A wise man once said the moon is more important than the sun, for the sun only shines in the day when it's already light out. The moon shines at night when we really need a little light.

You're obviously a wise man Scinv.

I followed your alarmism, we should definitely panic and rush to far-right-flavoured populism.

Panic, anger, outrage, it's all the same to the sympathetic nervous system. Stop being rational, stop thinking, you need to act now.

If you want stability, progress and success, does panic, anger and outrage sound like a good plan?

In my opinion it would be a good idea to stop demonising, grouping and labelling others to blame while propping up illusory ego and instead realise that the benefits of people working together in an open minded way to see reality, glimpse truth, in order to make better informed decisions is what will allow us to be successful.

My opinion is that we benefit from having a left and right. Having differing opinions is a good thing as there's always two sides to the story. That benefit is entirely lost if people can't communicate with each other because they are angry and looking down on each other.

My opinion is that Reform couldn't possibly deliver and you are welcome to call me a europhile communist lefty if it feels good to prop up your ego with even more illusion; but I'd suggest just calming down, taking a deep breath and realising that the birds are out there singing while you're inside grimacing that everything is not exactly as it should be.

Have a nice weekend.

Thanks nano, very promising!

Do you mind me asking where you found it? I've searched almost every portfolio company website for newsletter / email alert signups and joined the ones I found, and also the main agronomics email alerts.. Was it from Agronomics and I just signed up to their 'email alerts' but forgot to sign up for the 'newsletter' (which I just did maybe for the second time..)?

Listen to yourself, full of rhetoric vilifying others, whoever those others happen to be in the moment you decide you disagree with them. That's the rhetoric of Reform, manipulative. I said it below and it was ignored. The S&P500 vs the FTSE250, 2001 to recent, same performance. The difference is we had great performance during the first half and terrible performance during the second half. Reform is populism at it's worst. Look at what happened with populism in the US between 1960 and 1985, S&P500 returned 2.5% annualised for 15 years. Reform would sink the UK economy like it's sinking peoples ability to hold an adult conversation with someone who disagrees with them.

If a politician says something designed to make you angry, that's your warning that they don't want to benefit you, to work for you, they want to manipulate you. Whether it's someone from the left or right who does it, don't trust them.

They are violent

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yld824zn2o

They deny science

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0j458q00e2o

They steal from charities

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg5zrz1expo

And they steal from the UK taxpayer

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n1dxl8wwo

All allegedly of course..

I hope it pays off for you Vezzer. I got lucky with when I spotted ANIC, digging through AIM one by one in reverse market cap order after selling out of the US at the end of last year.

For what it's worth I wouldn't sell at 19p

There's already an answer by me to your misplaced question about politics. Look below at my point about their strategy being to make people angry to distract them from the bigger economic problem which they do not want to fix, along with a link to an article regarding fraud allegedly committed by Reform MPs.

If you insist on making the Vistry board about your political frustrations, you will achieve nothing but making this forum useless as a place to discuss Vistry. I don't want a reply from you regarding my politics, your politics, or how bin juice actually smells like roses. Any politician whose strategy is to make you angry shouldn't be trusted, but you wouldn't realise that's what's happening because angry people stop being reasonable people.

Another 2 big delayed publication trades today. Thats 6,996,844 shares bought in 5 trades this week.

Hey giantsquid, name one thing you've done that's benefited this forum?

Pull your head out of the bin, you've sniffed too much farage.

Thanks for the answers everyone..

Someone really is loading up this morning.

Oh green box ray of sunshine, why is it that you pointed out that LD said something along the lines of iscib+ needs to have better results than scib1? Why does it need better results? To prove that avidimab is actually increasing potency? What if both show ORR 70%?

Personally I see a slight reduction in CMA / debt risk, a bundle of evidence that this company is severely mispriced even for this year's performance and a second bundle of evidence that the new strategy and growth prospects are excellent. It's not the first time I've looked around and thought I'm on a different planet to the people around me though! For me it's no problem that sentiment is so negative, buybacks do much more work at these prices.

Isn't cohort 2 iscib+ pembro more like 55% ORR? I'm just wondering whether people view the 70% as more aspirational and whether even something like 66% could still lead to commercial success. Isn't the statistical bar for the double cpi cohorts 27/43 (63%)? Whats the ORR that actually means commercial failure?

More good news

BBC News - Mortgage lending rules change could help first-time buyers - BBC News

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0mny9pm2do

Interesting if Monday's 850k is the same buyer as the Tuesday and Wednesday delayed publication trades. That's 5,376,919 shares (just over 0.5% of Agronomics) purchased in 3 trades this week.

What are peoples thoughts on the implications if scope cohort 1 ORR is 68%-69%?

In another part of the chat it mentioned the price possibly being an average of multiple fills from earlier.