Member Info for green555

Thanks danny for the information, I have just come across Sareum as an investment opportunity.

batonrouge what has pub got to do with Sareum
just looking for information, if you don't know say so

Thanks HBD for the link, but does company really only have 6 employees ?
Hard to believe company with 6 employees and doing all these trails.

Can someone explain in plain English what does Sareum Holdings do ?
I see there are only 6 employees in the company, up to 2019 there were only two employees.
It a fund manager investing in new medicine
How many development it has in phase I, II or III
What other trials Sareum involved in!

"Far too cheap at circa 6p when you look at pipeline.

What are the pipeline ?
what stage are they at ?

GS my understanding is that the RCH is already gone ex-div
share went ex-div on 12th ie after the last trading time on 11th (16:30pm) it goes ex-div.
I hope I'm right, SP moving into positive territory was a real surprise; it can only mean there is demand to push it higher :)

"Now it's onto a bigger job analysing ABF, it's got huge and varied business with some overlap with PFD in grocery"

Kallumama, I've always learned something in reading your posts. I've been following ABF for now about 9 months not committed yet. I hope you still have skin in the game for PFD. You once asked in this forum what other company to invest I did mention "Reach" since then they are up 40%. They have had similar issue in pension liability which is being resolved no other debt and great prospect in digital.
From my many years in investing, its better to ride the winners than look back in hindsight.

Good luck with ABF will read the your analysis with the view to get on aboard.

"Richard Leonard who manages > £50m I think and has 25% in RCH"

my point is Richard Leonard is NOT telling whole picture. His 50m++ fund could comprise of 100's of small funds and in one of those fund he probably has 25% in RCH
If funds small as 0.67% holding are reporting, then why hasn't he? (as he clearly trying to impress his stature! )

GSmiley here is what I have in REACH ownership
Clearly above 0.5% is reported!

Ownership Name Shares
10.65% M&G Investment Management Limited 33,008,205
10.06% Aberforth Partners LLP 31,178,599
6.39% Schroder Investment Management Limited 19,809,918
6.1% J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc. 18,912,092
5.02% Premier Fund Managers Limited 15,553,836
4.65% Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P. 14,418,143
4.45% Northern & Shell Media Group Limited 13,782,789
2.76% Hargreave Hale Limited, Asset Management Arm 8,555,000
2.65% BlackRock, Inc. 8,223,697
1.79% LSV Asset Management 5,534,931
1.74% Legal & General Investment Management Limited 5,386,018
1.61% Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC 4,975,093
1.34% River and Mercantile Asset Management LLP 4,147,479
1.33% FMR LLC 4,113,559
1.28% Merseyside Pension Fund 3,968,562
1.24% Aegon Asset Management UK Plc 3,847,616
1.22% Abrdn PLC 3,775,624
1.16% Herald Investment Management Limited 3,604,083
1.16% Montanaro Investment Managers Ltd. 3,600,000
1.08% Hudson Management Ltd. 3,345,673
0.95% Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 2,929,364
0.85% Artemis Investment Management LLP 2,618,784
0.8% Fidelity International Ltd 2,487,982
0.77% Royal London Asset Management Limited 2,383,965
0.67% Trinity Mirror Employees Benefit Trust 2,079,385

regards to "Richard Leonard who manages > £50m I think and has 25% in RCH"

If this to be believed, that's at least £12.5m and he claims he bought them for £2 or less
Then he will have at least 6.25m shares that's approximately 2% of the company
I don't see anywhere that he holds 2% of reach
Someone is not telling the full story!!!

earache this great investigative work.
My guess is that someone is lining to buy chunk of shares !
If anything like what happened in BT shares, suddenly out of the blue Altice announced they have bought 12.1% of the shares. There was no sell side announcement !!
Either way at the current price 311p, reach automatically walks into the FTSE250 listing, so other funds will need to buy.
At least Numis got it right
Date Broker Rating Old Target New Target Change
06-May-21 Numis Buy 320.00 335.00 Reiteration

I did ask the question to simplywall.st?
just after the after results were announced their valuation dropped from 3. 06 to 2.37......

Their comment back was:
Please note that when the fair value changes, it could be due to revision on analysts' estimates hence affecting consensus data, or could be due to a new financial report released by the company, hence impacted the estimates of future free cash flows.
As previously mentioned by Gelo, we calculate the Fair Value using the Discounted Cash Flow Model. This model focuses on determining the value of the company at present based on the future free cash flow that the company can generate over time (10 years). You can learn more about this through this link https://github.com/SimplyWallSt/Company-Analysis-Model/blob/master/MODEL.markdown#discounted-cash-flows-dcf

final comment:
Upon checking, there was a change in the Consensus Estimate for 2022 a week ago that affected the Fair Value calculation of LSE:PFD, (from 79.20 to 54.80). The latest forecasted free cash flow (based on consensus estimates) of 54.80 is significantly lower than the previous one, hence this leads to a lower fair value. You can also review the calculations done using the "View Data" just below the Share Price vs. Fair Value. Please see the screenshots below

Historical price is not flattering for PFD
In feb 2007 it reached the dizzy height of £21.55 then fell to £1.42 by nov2008 (93% drop)
Long to get back ( we will :) maybe not to the dizzy height, but at least to £2 )

Thanks for the explanation Kallumama
From what you said it would be better for PFD to off-load the pensions to a third-party pension accumulator like Phoenix Group which may even pay PFD to take it off its hands, that would be result!

If the combined fund is in surplus, then why do we make extended contribution ?

From this years statement
Total pension contributions in the period were GBP47.0m (2019/20: GBP44.7m), due to previously agreed planned increases in deficit contribution payments to the Premier Foods pension scheme. Of this, pension deficit contribution payments were GBP39.1m and administration costs including pension levy costs were GBP7.9m.

The IAS 19 pension schemes valuation reported a surplus for the combined RHM and Premier Foods' pension schemes at 3 April 2021 of GBP539.9m, GBP690.5m lower than 28 March 2020. Net of deferred tax, the combined surplus at 3 April 2021 was GBP437.3m. A deferred tax rate of 19.0% is deducted from the IAS19 retirement benefit valuation of the Group's schemes to reflect the fact that pension deficit contributions made to the Group's pension schemes are allowable for tax.

Another 1p dividend added per year without doing anything.
Only see broker upgrades and increase in SP

We first alighted on Reach (the UK’s largest news publisher and owner of national papers including Mirror, Express, Star as well as regionals such as Manchester Evening News, Birmingham Live, Belfast Live, Liverpool Echo) in the February 2020 issue of SCSW, when the shares were trading on a PE of only 3.6. We had spotted Reach's transition from print to digital. In fact, Reach’s UK digital audience (39m people a month at the time of our first meeting) makes its network of 50 sites a top six digital asset behind the likes of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and the BBC!

Today the shares are back up to their 52-week highs at 240.5p. That's already a gain of 133.5% for our GP3 holding! But we think the shares have much further to go, having recently told our readers, "This story is about Digital where revenues grew 11% to £118m and have continued to accelerate (Q4: +26%, Q3: +13%). The changing mix together with cost cuts has already led to operating margins improving to 20.3% (+140bps y/y) - its highest point since FY16 and Fuller says the rising proportion of digital, which comes with no cost of printing and circulation, will see it improve more. Digital is about to see real jump-off."

The way read the situation from various RNS and analyst sentiment, results will be very positive in comparison to last years .
results.
Expecting a positive outcome from the pension front.
As for SP moving in the positive direction, will need a dividend payment or the very least dividend time scale!
I don't see why we need just pay down the debt as - debt / ebitda will come in around 2.2 or lower.
For a food company ratio around 2 is reasonable, especially given that FCF will come in around 75m

Dave I agree with with analysis, shares are worth more the £1.50++
some analysts have a fair value of £3.04, for this to be even be realistic management need show when they will start paying div or at the very least give an indication when they will start paying dividend.
All very good in saying (and doing) paying down the debt, for new investors to come on board we need to see dividend.
Also as the SP rises its much easier to refinance the exiting debt at better terms.
My view is management realise this and will start dividend payment. (that's what i hope to see in the statement on Wednesday)

(Sharecast News) - Reach has strengthened its full-year guidance following a "positive" start to the year.

Malcolm Morgan, analyst at Peel Hunt, said: "The company expects operating profit to be slightly ahead of consensus (£137.1m versus Peel Hunt's estimate of £138.7m). We believe there is room to increase this modestly, 1% to 2% perhaps. Overall we consider it a positive start to the year, with momentum in digital likely to build in the second half, and we increase our target price from 200p to 220p and reiterate our 'hold'."

I believe - Luxor Capital Group, LP short of 1.9% will soon be closed, as share price is only going to move up.
Soon it will be hitting £2.50 ++ and in contention for promotion to FTSE 250