The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
See the latest musings of Contrarian Investor on MTRO at https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/28/contrarian-investor-portfolio-review-october-28th-2019
Plenty more upside at £2, some reasons to be optimistic as Vernon leaves early. Careful as Hedge funds are playing lots of games
Big boys i.e. Institutions and hedge funds start to buy into Metro Bank - takeover rumours increase
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/25/big-boys-ie-institutions-and-hedge-funds-start-to-buy-into-metro-bank
Some decent buys going through last 30 mins. In auction will hedge funds buy more?
Net book £10. Tangible book £8 and you don’t think anyone is interested at £1.9....
Going to be volatile today for sure.dont expect up in a straight line but Over next week - month trend most certainly up. Get rid of stops for god sake, unless you’re short
Flybe was insolvent or almost, the Q3 results show metro is far from insolvent . In fact tier one capital 16 percent. Top level. So are you expecting bankruptcy ??
Contrarian Investor's take on the Metro Bank Q3 results released last night after market close. Too much doom and gloom, not going bust and a path to recovery. Glad I'm long. #contrarianshare https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/23/metro-bank-mtro-q3-2019-results-beats-analyst-expectations-despite-gloom-about-the-bank
Looking forward to HH-2z target depth mid-nov https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/23/contrarian-investor-portfolio-review-october-23-2019
Contrarian Investor Portfolio review October 23, 2019. SP looking nice for some action. https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/23/contrarian-investor-portfolio-review-october-23-2019
5.30 pm today
Vernon Hill added: "I wish all of our fans - Metro Bank's customers, colleagues and shareholders - every success for the next stage of the journey. As always, the best is yet to come." No hint of a bankruptcy trolls.
Read reivew at https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/23/contrarian-investor-portfolio-review-october-23-2019
Bonds rebounding nicely. That tells you a lot. Still 10.5 yield, but way off lows. https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/metro_bank_plcls-flr_nts_201823-28-bond-2028-xs1844097987
Agree the HSBC £1.80 was the bottom marker, £1 no way unless some meltdown everyone has missed and given bond issue was only a few weeks ago, investors in that issue would sue the butt off the company for misleading in the prospectus. There is a detailed risk section in that document. https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/4/metro-bank-back-below-200p-as-funding-costs-worry-investors
40p down risk, £2-3 upside on positive Brexit developments, results not as bad as feared (no worse than £7-8 million loss), Vernon Hill replacement update etc. Going to be interesting re. customer numbers, loan updates.
Reading the bond issue prospectus, things don’t look diabolical, A contrarian bet for sure. Let’s see. Often with a stock its “darkest before dawn”
180p target by HSBC suggests 190p is floor. Fingers crossed. But analyis favours brave long bet for me.
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/22/hsbc-initiates-coverage-on-metro-bank-mtro-at-180p
With HH-1 and HH-2-z flowing oil as producers by end of 2019, UKOG production would be 2000-2500 bopd. Assuming 2000 bopd, at $58.9 a barrel, 86% share of production and with $20 a barrel lift/marketing/distribution costs = $66,908 a day net to UKOG, £51,400 a day, £1,544,000 a month. Two new horizontal wells to be drilled Q1 2020, max allowed 6 wells and 3500 bopd due to SCC planning.
You are right. Early morning brain block! Lift costs $18 a barrel a, marketing and transport to Fawley refinery $2 a barrel.
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/9/26what-is-ukog-worth-part-2
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/9/29/ukog-swot-analysis-investment-fodder-or-stupid-waste-of-time
A horizontal well targeting a sweet spot would be expected to produce 1000-1500 bopd. FACT Confirmed by recent chat with DB at UJO in this sort of geology. Vertical well 350 bopd or so. Horizontals are transformational if they work. All on track
With HH-1 and HH-2-z flowing oil as producers by end of 2019, UKOG production would be 2000-2500 bopd. Assuming 2000 bopd, at $58.9 a barrel, 86% share of production and with $35 a barrel lift costs = $41,000 a day net to UKOG, £31,000 a day, £946,000 a month. Two new horizontal wells to be drilled Q1 2020, max allowed 6 wells and 3500 bopd due to SCC planning.
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/22/ukog-update-october-22-2019-horse-hill-hh-2z-horizontal-well-ops-underway-with-target-of-mid-november-target-depth
Very nice RNS and shows on all on track with the new 1000-1500 bopd potential horizontal well hh-2z. Target depth mid-Nov. Exciting times at Horse Hill and no Broadford Bridge style issues. 1.15p surely has to be history with production lined up for end of 2019 with HH-1, HH-2z. 2500 bopd ? https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/22/ukog-update-october-22-2019-horse-hill-hh-2z-horizontal-well-ops-underway-with-target-of-mid-november-target-depth
Plus my take on the original article. Remember these were direct quotes , or the journalist was lying. I believe the company rowed back after the furore.