Copied from yesterday.7 Sep 2016 09:13
Think this needs a tad more airtime at the top of thread, remember that the figures below relate to a single reformulation and not the furthest advanced being sildenafil.
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AIM_Chaos
Posts: 23
Research
Opinion: Strong Buy
Price: 1.45
View Thread (2)Ballpark numbersTue 15:43Just to demonstrate the potential of N4:
The likely next drugs to be reformulated after Sildenafil is Valsartan / Losartan. $11bn global annual market. Dwarfs the Sildenafil market.
I envisage N4 creating a SPV for the product, with a partner injecting �0.5m to �1.0m into the SPV. N4 will hold 90%, valuing SPV / produc tin development at �10m.
Returns to N4 (3-4 year horizon from now to receipt of royalties, post development and commercialisation by a major pharma) with an investment of only c.�2.0m at N4's TopCo level would be:
$11bn (market size) x 12.5% (market share) x 10% (royalty to SPV) x 90% (N4's share of SPV) x 85% (gross profit margin) = $105m gross profit pa.
Besides Sartans and Sildenafil ($38m gross profit pa using same model as for Sartans), N4 has earmarked at least a further SIX drugs for reformulation.
ONZ currently owns 49% of N4, and the RTO option is surely a likely outcome, given the existing tie up / prior share swap.