Valuation Here It is 5p11 Mar 2015 13:29
What will Almonty offer? I can give this a very close estimate and here are the Calcs,
Here goes..
Back in Dec 2013, we were offered 5.9p by Almonty per share buyout which we rejected for being too low. However , Since then we have a few changes to factor in.
Firstly, we now have the license in out hands so factor in a 15% price increase for this, and other works undertaken at the mine etc. I am being conservative.
Ok so plus 5.9p plus 15% = 6,78p.
However, Tungsten has dropped in value and the best way to value the fall in is to look a rival firm's SP movement, The obvious one is actually Almonty and it has dropped 33% since that original offer.
So, lets take 33% off the expected offer price
and we have 6.78p less 33% = 4.52p
But, thats not all, with other suitors at the table before them with an offer down, I think Almonty will have to be a little braver than before and stretch a little . I think they should and will offer in minimum of 4.75p a share..
Lets also factor in another change in circumstance, the mine has expenses in Euro but sells in Dollars so this time around it is more attractive to Almonty, I think the change in euro weakness adds at least another .025p so thats a total expected bid of 5p even. again I am being tough on Ormonde.
Long Term, However, I think the project is worth more and a the real price here is closer to 10p and it will be realized within a year or two.
But for now.
I predict an offer of 5p.