take 2, new figures, one correction14 Apr 2015 20:41
I ran some new ideas and figures past myself, without referring to my last calculations. I came up with a similar deal/
here goes.
I think a fair deal would be a 66.6% to 33.3% split.
I see Oaktree putting in €25m cash equity into the project in exchange for that 50%,
However I see them paying $7.5m cash directly to Ormonde for an additional 16.6%. based on a company value of $50m and $500k for each percent bought.
the JV partnership borrows €25m to €30m to build the mine.
plus a €500,000 a year Management fee paid to Ormonde Mining.
an agreed €3m feasibility fund for the mines extension pencilled in with Oaktree taking the tab
The mine should produce €20m operating profit a year. take away €5m for debt repayments. leaving €15m a year, with ORM getting 33.3% or roughly €5m of that and a management fee. but retaining the company's other assets. These are worth several million on their own.
so what have we got?
I think Ormonde's share producing profit of €5m a year will value the company tungsten mine at a minimum of €25m,
add on the Cash of $7.5m less the Short Term loan = $5m (€4m)
Plus the value of the external assets , say €3m
Total value = $32m or £26m.
Or a value of 5.47p a share.
Yep a lot different from my last calculation, but this is mainly due to me valuing the company's mine at only 5 times its profits. In reality it could be 7, 8, 9 10, times . But playing safe.
either way
Fair Value assuming we get a fair deal out of Oaktree, and they gave a generous offer of Pulse Electronics.
5.47p a share is my safety target price.