Member Info for granto

I want to thank the people of ASOG. and the legal group too.

andydiff, there is no need to be like that. Afren was a high risk share and everyone knew the risks here over the last 6 months, the potential for administration was there. PoO has dropped again, had it risen we would be celebrating today. Most of us here were long on this, so need to rub it it. still a chance ? companies have come out of administration before, it happens quite a lot. In Afren's case we will need a sharp recovery in PoO.

we knew this was a real prospect as long as we were operating at a gross loss, with PoO where it is we probably are. so what next 1- The administrators will run the company, with the BoD still running the subsidiaries with the Admin standing over their shoulder. 2- if things don't improve within several months, they will apply to the court to liquidate 3 in liquidation the administrator will sell the assets ASAP and whatever prices achieved will be used to pay for those holding liens and charges on the assets. that's the BH and Banks. It remains to be seen what these assets are worth but the way things are in OIl, I imagine they will be very lucky to recover their bond money. 4 there will be little or nothing left for SH. most likely nothing. ONLY HOPES<<1 and 2 A, PoO to shoot through the roof and quickly, B, The BH decide its better to refinance as Admin balances the books. But alas, I think we are doomed, my condolences to all LTH who bought into a FTSE 250 company with exciting growth. also to STH, though most of you guys knew the risks were there. To the shorters, well I guess you are cheering from the rooftops. 100% profit. to all the posters here Gloomy, TW, Andy, Ynotseal,Peter. Mr Poshman, I wish you guys well, I am sorry for us all. I am still holding here myself. we all lost. I wonder how many of the No camp would accept a YES vote now. I was against the Share suspension because it denied us the chance to run to the lifeboats and locked us below decks. I never though Afren would sink, but we are locked in 3rd class and the 1st class passengers the bondholders are being loaded onto the lifeboats, not all of them will get off. The rest of us are doomed barring a rise in PoO. Good Luck to you all.

thanks for that….I am pretty sure oil was $45 in st petersburg around dec. less now for sure

I am not sure what we are selling the oil for, but I gather it is in the region of $40 a barrel. the big question is ….what is the net profit on that barrel. lots of talk on BBs , but nobody every seems to want to tackle that one. …anyone. I have a figure but you first.

Hi Boxer, I have always advocated a NO vote here. However, the drop in the price of POO, coupled with the suspension of the shares, I am genuinely thinking there is merit in discussing voting YES vote, keep a close watch on events. it is very much up in the air at the moment. By all means pick a side, But yes and no voters should consider all options. I'll wait for the next RNS, and then decide.

would it not be better to sell non core assets first rather than Ebok. …again BH approval needed. also is this really the best for SH. I am not sure our assets would cover our debt.

Mr Poshman, Any company buying out the BH debt to acquire the company would not be able to assign a zero value to the SH shares. Because the SH would rather let it go into administration than sell their shares for zero, while the BH get a percentage of their debt back. SH would be offered 2p a share I think. even then they might reject it.

I agree this company is in negative equity territory at the moment. If it did not have limited liability and SH were responsible for its loses, I could envisage us having to pay people to take the shares from us. So yes I agree the current shares are possibly worthless, Yes I still hold some here by the way, however, when I say they are worthless that does not mean they cannot realise a negotiated value. 1 through a recap programme like you said 2, a buyout by different company, this would see the BH taking 25c in the $ for their bonds, and SH getting little more than hello/goodbye nuisance payoff. This could be higher than you think, ….if neither happen we are into Administration or asset sell off territory, the assets are not what we thought they were in BR and Ebok, so I am very doubtful an asset sell off will leave anything for SH. The administration route is full rife with danger but would give time and protection for a limited period. I have always been in the vote No side of the fence, but I honestly think with the PoO on the floor, there is a strong argument being made for a YES vote too,

Petroneft repaid its entire debt last year .

Alan Linn said that Afren could survive at $50 a bbl. Did he mean before or after debt repayments ? Anyone ?

hand up I see the Seplat funding now and yes it's a different project - but - they have completed due diligence here so perhaps they could re-enter and make a bid - as soon as production figures are quantified . It comes down to valuation ratios and debt write-down. .

thanks for the Seplat headsup. So it's unlikely they will bid ? I spotted they opened a new escrow account in London. Am I grasping at straws ? I agree with your assessment of Alan Linn. Talk 2moro

correct sir, for once in this saga the SH actually have a position of power. I remember with Punch PLC the shares were worthless, but the BoD and Bomdholders could not do anything without them. In the end they BH gave the SH a deal and a price on the shares. It was a battle but SH won. seems we are heading the same way.

Hard to believe that they were refused extra time, and that an offer that offered value to stakeholders was simply dismissed. I suspect the Bondholders rejected it. Bet they would snatch to today. The Board of Seplat notes today's announcement by Afren that it has decided not to agree to Seplat's request for a timetable extension, Seplat had completed extensive due diligence on Afren and made a written proposal to the Board of Afren that provided critical and significant near-term liquidity and value for the stakeholders of Afren. The share was 7p at the time.

I know this, I emailed the FCA on March 19th complaining that the Presentation and RNS was utterly confusing. I pointed out that I had emailed the company seeking assistance in explaining it to me and got no reply. I also emailed Simon Hawkins on occasion. no reply. I detailed why the RNS and of offer to shareholders regarding dilution was far to complex for ordinary shareholders to understand. as such many sold out and it weakened the company and the share price. To my mind issuing a RNS stating the shareholders were going to get diluted and then add the the most complex of complex presentations added to the demise of Afren. The refusal to answer emails asking for clarification on the presentation and restructuring offer, was very damaging. I don't know if this helps but to my mind it contributed to the demise. mostly the selling of the hedges, while we were dicssuing the hedges on the BB and we know the Afren and Simon read the BB, yet they stayed quiet and allowed us believe things were better than they were. Also, the wording of RNSs and the lack of information on operations and operating profits was glaring in its absence. I consider they deliberately withheld information , and thereby eroded all trust. all the best

no worries Boxer and thanks for you input. One possible outcome is a merger where we get shares in a new merged company ( with Seplat for example). but again our allocation may be small.

there you go… to afrenlegalaction yahoo com

I have only posted this once…..don't think that's against the rules. If any shareholder or interested party in Afren PLC can provide any factual information of any event involving the company that they feel should be reported to the regulatory authorities or has unnecessarily damaged the value of the company, please can they collate the information and forward it accordingly to the afren legal action group….scroll down for the email through the BB…..or ask here..

Can the company be sold against the wishes of the shareholders ? +""absolutely not, this would have to go to a vote at a EGM'. . 1p2p3p. wouldn't entice me to aid and abet this. +That's understandable. we currently have no offer is its not an issue. what would you accept ? If a sale such as this can be blocked by shareholders I'd prefer administration ="That might follow a rejection of any offer'. at that point you are praying a non oil expert court appointed administrator can do a better job than Alan Linn at running Afren. and then pray POO goes up quickly. and hope we'd get the 1,2,3p that way and if the asset sale turned to a fire sale then at least it the bond holders who get seared the most. =' In a fire sale the BH have the first priority liens on all the assets, sadly they get paid first, and given that the assets hardly cover the debts owed on them, in a liquidation I think I could safely predict us shareholders would get zero. I would predict the BH would get about 25% to 35% of their money back in such a sale, assuming Nigerian law allows this, some speculate it would not. Hence, the Bonds were trading at 25% of their value.