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I suppose many were simply hedging against a default. The way things are looking they are rubbing their hands and licking their lips right now. However, they are also trapped during the suspension. also, they could get stung if the company is bought by Seplat, Or it goes into administration and emerges from it with POO at a $1 a bbl Christmas week !!!!! all speculation and all improbable, but you never know

even if the company is insolvent, it can trade on in administration for at least 6 months, and much longer with a court agreement, and even at that it would be a move of last resort for the BH, even then there is asset sell offs and other options, indeed a merger would eliminate many admini costs too. So, complete collapse is a bit off the yet. People who shorted this could be in trouble if a deal is done with Seplat .

a global economic collapse ? gosh I hope not, but I think we will see a global realignment in the years ahead, perhaps it will come faster than we realise. The US debt crises makes Greece look like an unpaid bookie bet.

hard to say, but we are supposed to be solvent at $50, so its close.

when Seplat approached first we had just come through a 2 month POO average of close on $60 WTi. But the time they departed talks in mid Feb the price had crashed to $50. So you see, when we started talks we were making profits, and within 2 months we were at break even. regardless, its lower still now.

You are correct . Seplat approached right at the end of Dec and the market was informed just after. Our Dec oil was sold at $57 $58 a bbl, and yes you are correct it fell back in Feb to $52 ish, and then back up to $60 in early summer. so there we have it. volatile POO.

at that time POO was $60 and afren was making a profit , they got greedy and wanted the company . Seplat's offer was not good enough considering the profit being made at that time . There was no point putting it to a vote because the BH had rejected it . If Seplat bid again it will be lower this time ! So no guarantee BH will accept .

1: the BH decide to play on and plough another $30m plus in. 2'; the BH refuse to and the company may and probably would go into administration. somehow, I think finding a buyer, and taking 25c in the $ is more to a BH liking. Let us remind ourselves, these were not normal 3% 4% corporate bonds. These were very high yielding bonds with up to 11% return. As such an element or risk was built-in here at the very beginning. No doubt they will fight for every last cent here but the BH may bail out and sell out….to the highest bidder.

1: the BH decide to play on and plough another $30m plus in. 2'; the BH refuse to and the company may and probably would go into administration. somehow, I think finding a buyer, and taking 25c in the $ is more to a BH liking. Let us remind ourselves, these war enot normal 3% 4% corporate bonds. This were very high yeilding binds with up to 11% return. As such an element or risk was built in here at the very beginning. No doubt they will fight for every last cent here but the BH may bail out and sell out….to the highest bidder.

i don't think the BH wanted or expected to be paid off completely, but as a figure of speech, you are correct, the BH certainly wanted a much higher percentage of their debt covered than ' the considerably less than the full amount ' that Seplat offered. I don't agree BH will accept anything, but they will accept a Market Value of their secured assets. THis is currently around $350m to $450m. Lets not forget the Shareholders who will have to get their palms crossed to agree to the deal. I imagine any offer would be higher than the 30 day average. perhaps 2p or 3p a share, Here's hoping that Seplat are back.

I was wondering the same myself. remember the reason the Seplat deal was turned down was because they 'offered less than the companies debt, or considerably less than the company's debt'. Clearly, the BH are now faced with lower production and lower POO, I agree the Typhoo that will except a lower offer now.

Looks like the consortium is gone and Seplat has picked up the legal tab . Note they mention an 'option' to buy into an asset . What's that ? A JV ? I suspect it's a part of Afren

Seplat have confirmed they are in the process of negotiating the purchase of a petroleum asset ( almost certainly in Nigeria ) with several $100m ( $350m) on the table . With the entire company in danger of sinking under the waves the Bondholders may have found a solution . Sadly for them this may only realise $350m of the $1300m owed. I imagine SH will have to be bought off to seal the deal . Could be 2p a share maybe more. I am guessing here of course and there is nothing concrete to link the two .but would anyone be surprised if Seplat came back to the table / they said they would .... Remember ?

typos - sorry

it is well worth taking a break from here and go and read Seplat's last two RNS. In these they state they have several $100m in cash and are negotiating ( re- negotiating I think ) for the sake of an asset. As part of an original consortium . It nome appears Seplat is on its own negotiations . They also state that their investment strategy is Nigeria based an focussed . There is reference to ' changed circumstances . I think that Seplat could be back and the BH not quite so Ballsy this time . Remember the BH are down 75% , SH down 99% . Fearing collapse I suspect a deal is being done for all but most likely part of Afren . With debt cancellation included . Let's see

I'm not a professional advisor and if you haven't already I strongly urge you to get a professional trader to assist you. As for me my investment portfolio is 90% highly conservative in blue chip international equities, with a broad geographical and sector spread. 10% of my portfolio is allocated to shares with a volatility swing. Before investing I read as much as I can. RNSs, annual reports, news reports. I always invest less than intended, to protect agains a fall, and also it allows me to 'average up'. I seldom 'average down'. I always average in ( buy in 2 or 3 times over a few days , and always average out too. I place a considerable emphases on management. A good CEO can make a success out of a bad company. bit like sports I suppose ). By keeping a track of your buy in price, you become attached to it, we all do, I try to forget the price I buy at, because you cling on to losing shares hoping to claw back. my main guide is to buy companies that are making profits, or about to, loss making firms, regardless of size are dangerous. Oxus Gold is a super high risk legal play and goes against my own rules so there are always expect ions. after all that might I say that I am far from a professional financial advisor and before you listen to anything I say you must get a financial advisor in your corner. I hope your positions come good for you.

thanks for all that….I emailed. I'll let you know.

yep, credit where it is due/

TyphooSips, here are my declared buys and sell this year…..not so shabby despite your baseless insults . here you go. Richland Resources up 150% since I called it a buy in December , Central Rand Up 50% since I called my buy, Ophor up 33% on my buy and sell calls, PTR level, Ormonde down 30%, Lansdowne up 60% PTR down 10%,, Xtract up 75% Oxus up 40%. Bank Of Oreland up 50% and sold………. Seems like I am having a better year than you. I am sorry if you lost your shirt here but you need to stop abusing people and do research. You research on my share buys this year shows up how little you know.

Thank you Andy, Yes I was very bullish here, and like all of us I lost out. in life we win some and lose some but as always try our best. In this case we were not calculating fairly because the selling of the hedge money was not revealed, the recent collapse in POO has compounded the difficulties here. I doubt shareholders will ever get 'justice' here, but I do think the Bondholders took a serious blow too. Such are the rules BH will get first dibs on any salvage sale, we SH are at the end of the queue, so in a selloff we will get little or nothing. with POO at this level administration will be tough to survive, but arguable that we could make it. I think the likely outcome is the BH and BoD will agree new short term finance, and the company will avoid administration, at least for a few months, however, it is a possibility that Administration will be sought with ' latest latest finance providers getting guarantees or assurances from the administrator' in exchange for fresh finance. I have personally seen this before. It is a semi formal agreement that the administrator honors. either way Afren will survive here for for some time. Pray for a POO recovery otherwise we are on the verge of sinking below the waves. I disagree with the suspension of the shares, that is akin to locking the 3rd class passengers below decks on the Titanic, we are the ones rattling the locked doors screaming ' give us a chance'. Only difference is the good ship Afren is a 50/50 chance of sinking at this stage. If the BH demand payment then its all over. My intention is to run to the lifeboats as soon as the gates open to sell the remaining shares I have……hanging around for justice and your share of the ship is a risk I won't take looking at it. It is sad and reckless story, bit like the Titanic itself