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💰 3. Revenue & Returns Estimate (High-Level View)

If fully developed:

• Coal mine output: ~15 Mtpa (million tonnes per annum)

• Coal price (domestic, long-term contracts): Let’s assume $40–$60/tonne (discounted due to local pricing)

• Gross revenue from coal:

$600M to $900M/year

Costs (CAPEX, OPEX, taxes, etc.)

• Net margins might be around 15–25%, conservatively

GCM’s net annual cashflow (mining only):

$90M–$225M/year, depending on ownership share and financing terms

Power plant equity stake (say 20% in 6,600 MW worth ~$8B)

• If plant yields ~15% ROE, and GCM owns 20%, they might see:

$200M–$300M/year in equity earnings after full ramp-up

Based on RNS and presentations (2021–2024), GCM proposed:

▸ Annual coal production: ~15 million tonnes

Enough to fuel multiple coal power plants (including 6,600 MW)

▸ Thermal power projects:

• 3 × 2,000 MW plants (possibly in phases), using Phulbari coal

• GCM aimed to retain at least 20–30% stake in each plant project in early-stage talks (subject to change)

▸ Earnings model:

• Profit from coal mining operations

• Equity returns from power plants

• Potential NPV (Net Present Value) of over $1.5–2.0 billion based on a full-scale operation (as claimed in older GCM presentations)

What I’m hoping for as I’ve said before:

1. Miner deal gives us £10-20million in cash so we are set for 3-5 years ie no further dilution.

2. 2-3% of overburden value (it will provide an income from 6 months in from start and be a constant as long as we are stripping ground (25-30 years)

3. A percentage of the coal value (10% is my hope but could be a little lower).

4. We will prove extra resource and book as reserve over time. 572million tonnes is the current resource estimate. Phulbari (the poster) who used to work for Asia Energy on the ground (where is he by the way) told us they expected the 572 to increase 😃).

5. Solar park to bring in revenue (if built).

6. 6600Mw of coal power to bring in something. Anyone have a guess what / if we are due a slice? I forget as it’s been a while since I read those RNS’s 😊.

I get circa 25p at 0.5% of the overburden $17-20bn.

I think 0.5% is tight to be honest. I’d like to see 2-3%.

On the overburden subject, this is why the Teesta project approval is so important.

Teesta and the development of the north in general will require hundreds of millions of tons of aggregates and other minerals in the Phulbari overburden. It’s a win win which is why we got so excited when Teesta went to Power China in particular.

It’s coming.

Yes redeyemines. It does appear that the coal model is now being viewed as the solution.

Is this a planned campaign or just a coincidence 👏😁

I recall even the Bangladesh Government stating that Asia Energy hold a sovereign contract to mine Phulbari. It was years ago, maybe over 10 but they said it.

Of course PC will have checked 😆

Energy expert Dr Ijaz Hossain of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology said, “The Rampal power plant is undoubtedly contributing to the economy. Our coal-fired plants have become critical because domestic gas reserves and production are continuously declining, while we are unable to import sufficient LNG. In this situation, there is no scope to expand gas-based generation. Coal-fired plants are now essential. Considering the overall situation, all coal-fired plants are highly important and are contributing to the country.”

Uninterrupted coal supply

Senior officials at the Rampal plant said despite outstanding dues, the coal supplier has continued to ensure uninterrupted deliveries, which helped the plant maintain full-capacity production. Currently, the plant still has an adequate coal reserve.

Project Director Ramanath Pujari added that although demand sometimes falls due to monsoon rains- requiring one unit to shut down temporarily- the plant has not faced closures due to fuel shortages. To reduce future risks, coal storage capacity will be expanded to maintain reserves of 400,000-500,000 tonnes at all times.

Solar project inside Rampal

The plant has also initiated a 10 MW solar power project by installing panels on rooftops and unused spaces within the facility, including the township building, labour colony and jetty areas. A preliminary in-house feasibility study has already been completed, and a detailed study is underway with consultant recruitment in process. The solar project will help reduce the plant’s own electricity costs, while surplus solar power can be supplied to the national grid.

Pujari said, “The 10 MW solar power project inside Rampal is still in its preliminary stage. We expect it to go into production within a year as a pilot project, subject to approval from the Power Development Board. The electricity will be supplied to the grid. In the future, there are also plans to expand solar generation capacity by an additional 40 MW within the power plant area.”

Https://www.daily-sun.com/post/822119

Rampal plant feeds national grid with 10.5 billion units

The power plant is a joint venture between Bangladesh and India, implemented by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)

Ariful Islam

Ariful Islam

Journalist

Publish: Monday, 25 August, 2025 03:00

Rampal plant feeds national grid with 10.5 billion units

The Rampal thermal power plant has emerged as a key contributor to Bangladesh’s energy supply, delivering over 10.5 billion units of electricity to the national grid.

Accounting for more than 7% of the country’s total power generation, the 1,320-megawatt coal-fired facility not only supports national electricity needs but also boosts local socio-economic development.

Alongside its coal-based operations, the plant is pioneering a 10 MW solar project within its premises, signalling a step towards integrating renewable energy into its generation mix.

The power plant is a joint venture between Bangladesh and India, implemented by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) in partnership with India’s state-owned NTPC Limited. The plant’s first unit began commercial production in December 2022, while the second unit went into operation in March 2024. Currently, both units are generating electricity at full capacity and supplying it to the national grid.

Production statistics show that in June this year, the plant recorded its highest monthly output of 676.73 million units. On 1 June, Unit-2 achieved its highest daily generation at 100.3% capacity, while Unit-1 reached 100.46% on 15 June. In April, Unit-1 recorded the highest monthly plant availability rate of 99.96%. In June, the overall monthly availability reached 97.28%. The plant’s average station DC for the last quarter (April-June) stood at 92.2%, with the full-year station DC finalised on 12 April.

Economists noted that the Rampal plant is playing an important role in driving industrialisation by ensuring a regular electricity supply to the national grid. Alongside national contributions, the plant is also boosting the local economy through youth employment opportunities and community development programmes targeted at women and underprivileged groups.

Rampal Project Director Ramanath Pujari said, “So far, more than 10,359 billion units of electricity have been supplied to the national grid from this plant. Every month, the plant contributes 7-8% of the country’s total power generation. Over the past three months, thanks to uninterrupted coal supply and the easing of the dollar crisis, we have been able to generate electricity as per demand. We are currently meeting all the supply requirements assigned to us.”

According to him, a single 660 MW unit generates 400-500 MW during the daytime, while demand rises to 600-660 MW between 7 pm and 3 am. On 1 June and 15 June, both units separately ran at full capacity, achieving 100% generation.

Energy expert Dr Ijaz Hossain of Bangladesh University o

Https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/trade/chinese-firm-alleges-coal-procurement-irregularities-at-patuakhali-power-plant

Chinese firm alleges coal procurement irregularities at Patuakhali power plant

FE ONLINE REPORT

Published :

Aug 24, 2025 16:06

Updated :

Aug 24, 2025 16:06

For all latest news, follow The Financial Express Google News channel.

A Chinese energy company has lodged a complaint with the Chief Adviser, alleging manipulation and mismanagement in the coal procurement process for the 1,320MW coal-fired power plant in Patuakhali.

In a letter dated August 21, Yongtai Energy Pvt. Ltd. claimed that a vested quarter was attempting to manipulate the coal sourcing procedure for the plant, which is operated by RPCL-Norinco Intl Power Limited (RNPL).

The company further alleged that it was drawn into “unlawful negotiations” during the process of selecting a competent coal supplier for the large coal-fired power plant.

Yongtai has called for an independent probe, requesting the formation of a legally empowered committee to investigate manipulation, procedural breaches, and unlawful interference in the coal procurement process.

According to sources, the Power Division under the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MPEMR) has already formed a committee to examine the alleged discrepancies.

Restrictive tender terms and questionable design choices were among the issues that have stalled the coal procurement procedure for the Patuakhali power plant, they added.

Over the past four years, RNPL has floated coal supply tenders four times but has failed to select a competent supplier, the sources further said.

Have a great BH weekend everyone 😁

Welcome to fear of missing 100p any day Friday 🤣

When it goes it will be significant 😉

I bet the BNP are lobbying Yunus to approve the Scheme of Development ahead of power.

Makes perfect sense politically 😁

Take your seats. 🥤 🍿

Maybe that 138p broker target 🎯 is actually in play.

Wow Pappi. Wow 😮

I’m hoping the mining deal gives us a slug of cash. That’s what I would do.

Won’t take much now searcher. 😌

Looks promising. Shorts closing, reversal in play. 👏

Shorters must be feeling a bit uncomfortable 🫣😎