RE: China and India face off on energy28 Oct 2025 16:11
Bangladesh’s deepening energy crisis has made it the center of a regional contest, with China expanding investments and India seeking to use geography to retain influence. Dhaka’s post-election energy choices will determine whether Delhi can convert that leverage into lasting power or yield ground to Beijing’s faster-moving ambitions.
People visit the South Asia Pavilion during the 9th China-South Asia Expo in Kunming, southwest China Yunnan Province, June 19, 2025. (XinhuaHu Chao).jpg
People visit the South Asia Pavilion during the 9th China-South Asia Expo in Kunming, southwest China's Yunnan Province, June 19, 2025. (Photo: Hu Chao/Xinhua)
Bangladesh sits at the centre of a three-way contest: Beijing pours in capital, Delhi controls the arteries of clean energy access, and Gulf suppliers and Western financiers are bidding for long-term deals. At the heart of it is Dhaka’s energy shortfall. Chinese investments, from power plants to transmission corridors, are tying Bangladesh into a wider Chinese-built chain spanning Pakistan to Sri Lanka. The clean hydropower Bangladesh is eyeing from Nepal and Bhutan can only reach its factories through Indian territory, making Delhi the indispensable transit gatekeeper. For years, India has relied on geography as quiet leverage for its ability to slow, stop, or enable trade and commodities across South Asia on its own terms. Yet, that leverage is no longer uncontested, as new players, led by China, deepen their footprint in the region.
But India is not just a corridor country. Through Adani Power, it is also a direct supplier. In this contest, Dhaka’s next choices on its energy supply are poised to ripple across the subcontinent’s energy corridors and political alignments and will decide who gains the upper hand, and how the geopolitical map of South Asia is redrawn. With elections tentatively scheduled four months away and its power grid under immense strain, Dhaka has become the rare South Asian capital where political upheaval, foreign finance, and energy security collide.
Bangladesh’s energy system is under mounting pressure. About three million battery-powered rickshaws, running mostly on low-cost Chinese batteries, charge at informal roadside stations with no metering or load control. Their aggregate demand could swallow the full output of the $12 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, two 1,200-megawatt units, built with Russian assistance and still awaiting commissioning—before any factory benefits.
Natural gas, which once met two-thirds of its power demand and remains the backbone of power supply, is declining by about 200 million cubic feet a year, as most prime reserves run dry. No major discoveries have been made in more than a decade pushing the country to more imports and coal. LNG imports have filled part of the gap. Between 2022 and 2024, Bangladesh spent an estimated. $11 billion USD on spot-market LNG purchases, a level of exposure that left it acutely vul