Member Info for GozoMike

Gas price works out at $7.936 per mscf, which is mid range. Our share being 47.5% of 95% after royalty out of $476164 / day would be $214869/day or $78.4 million/year for 60mmscf/day at same price.
Less costs of course

The only reason that this RNS was issued is that the "The Minister of Energy has confirmed his intention that the GSA covers ALL of the gas to be produced from the recently awarded Tendrara Production Concession, onshore Morocco."
That statement by him was deemed by Sound to be inside information which therefore has to be RNSd.
I am sure Sound did not want to but it does indicate the Minister of Energy has this topic on the top of the papers on his desk right now and the deal is close to being done. However we have heard that for a long time now.
Nothing in his statement, or the RNS, refers to anything outside the 135kms concession.
I fail to see how people can misconstrue this and suggest it applies to a wider area.

Petroleum Concession is 135kms around TE5 only and not the whole of Tendrara see RNS September 2018.

He has obviously learned well from Metano and Greenberry as Enexon Ventures are also based in Malta, a country trying to be as corrupt a tax haven as they can get away with.
https://www.enexon.com/team

As the unstimulated well tests do not begin until mid March, unless there is some other form of news, then the pint and a chat is doomed to be a non-event.
We have been told that the TAGI extends from 1899m to 2009m, the top half being structural closure, the lower being startigraphic trap. However we have gas down to 2070m which is going to be tested to see if it is suitable for stimulation. This must therefore be Paleozoic . Is that why Schlumberger are bringing over the big guns?

I take your point sreadman, and to a certain extent we all need to cut management some slack. But when we are told our strategy is back to back wells, and then it changes quite dramatically, we deserve some explanation. As you can see, the share price has not reacted well.

No explanation given in my email reply from JP as to why the delay between TE10 and TE11. I have asked for that point to be clarified.
We were told back to back wells and now it looks like 12 to 16 weeks from the end of drilling at TE10 to spud of TE11.
I want to know what has happened to change the programme as we have had no official explanation.

From JP:
Hello Mike.

In summary - every potentially large discovery needs appraisal. That is perfectly normal and indeed always the case. I don’t see us drilling the appraisal well as we are an explorer and I prefer to put our resources into exploration. The volume uncertainty is also perfectly normal at this stage of maturity and has nothing to do with faulting.

TE11 we have announced is a bold Paleo well to the North. It has nothing to do with TE10.

Regarding the dates - we expect to have the initial post stimulation rate end March and then end April the final test outcome after pressure build up etc.

Hope that helps.
James

Thanks Kirk, along the same line of questioning as myself. I have also sent mine to JP and will share if not in confidence

I used the questions@soundenergyplc obtained from the website. I will try direct and see if I get an answer.

Seems Sound have stopped answering emails.

The RNS is incorrect in giving an estimate of completion of post perforation well tests by end March. It surely has to be end April. That is 10 weeks from now. Time for the rig to be used for an appraisal well up dip before we start TE11.

Good news about a very significant gas find. Don't forget we have been told, several times, the stratigraphic trap is faulted. That means this well was never going to access all the gas in the strat trap from TE10. In order to confirm it's full potential we need another drill updip. That is why TE11 is not going ahead as planned IMHO.

What we have already been told and when.
27/12/2018 Potential gross reservoir interval from 1,899m MD to 2,009m MD (110m TAGI only).
Preliminary interpretation of the intermediate wireline log data indicates thinly bedded gas bearing intervals within the gross section, with initial estimates of net pay of up to 10.5m and an average porosity of 8%.
The top of the TAGI sand sequence found at a measured depth ("MD") of approximately 1,892m.
07/01/2019 TE-10 has gas bearing sands within and below the currently mapped TAGI structural closure, the base of the structural closure is at 1,958m MD, suggesting the gas accumulation may extend up dip materially de-risking the stratigraphic trap potential upside. The base of the TAGI being 2009m MD.
The TE-10 drilled to a TD at 2,218m measured depth ("MD"), 209m MD below the base of the TAGI sandstone sequence, into an undated section of mudstones and minor thin bedded sandstones, the potential identification of additional thin bedded net pay and the successful recovering of a gas sample to surface with gas shows down to 2,070m MD.
Moveable hydrocarbons in the reservoir confirmed. The Company can confirm that the gas shows observed extend below the currently mapped structural closure
28/01/2019 Gas bearing sands identified beneath TAGI also the presence of fractures and the previously announced potential additional thin bedded net pay.
The Company expects to be able to confirm a revised net pay estimate in mid-February 2019.
Following the acquisition of the VSP (vertical seismic profile) at TE-10, the Company previously confirmed that the gas shows observed during drilling extended below the currently mapped structural closure at approximately 1,958m MD, suggesting that the gas accumulation may extend up dip into the stratigraphic trap which had pre-drill mid case potential on a gross (100%) basis of 2.7 TCF gas originally in place ("GOIP") (4.5 TCF GOIP upside case and a 1.5 TCF GOIP low case).
Seismic interpretation and modelling to provide an estimate of the gas resources within the discovery at this specific well and to de-risk the stratigraphic upside continues and are expected to be completed also by mid-February.
From early February we will conduct a series of flow tests on multiple intervals between 1,899m MD and 2,070m MD to establish the presence of deepest moveable gas and reduce the range of uncertainty on gas resource volumes.
The Company then intends, once the stimulation equipment has arrived, to mechanically stimulate the most prospective reservoir zones in a series of production flow tests. The stimulated test is expected to take at least 30 days from commencement.

Top of the TAGI 1892 MD.
TAGI Reservoir from 1899 MD to 2009 MD
Base of structural closure 1958 MD
Stratigraphic trap from 1958 MD
Gas shows down to 2070 MD
Total Depth TD 2218 MD

What if a new company, maybe C4 or similar vehicle is created and shares are given to existing Sound holders?
Assets such as Sidi Moktar could be transferred from Sound to C4 leaving Tendrara and Anoual in Sound , which is then sold off.
It has happened before with CORO.

I know TE11 has been chosen to be located in the greater Tendrara area and ground works will commence after the well test has been completed at TE10. That takes us to mid March to begin the next well and late April to finish.
I had thought we would be selecting the oil prospect in Anuoal for TE11 so have plans changed?
Why not back to back drilling? Well something has happened at TE10 to cause a re-think.
The last time we had an unscheduled pause was after TE8 failed. It has to be a different reason this time because we now have a second discovery on our hands.
We will get some idea of the size of the well in the next 10 days. We know we have drilled through the structural closure and found gas below in the stratigraphic trap, but that will not tell us the whole story as the structural closure is sub divided by a series of faults. So TE10 can only reveal part of the story of the stratigraphic trap. What it does do is calibrate the seismic favourably.
Whilst we have time on our hands and reasons to speculate I am going to suggest that the TE10 well has met our upper limit expectations and we are going to sell ASAP, preferably completing before the start of the next UK tax year.
As I have been living outside the UK for more than five tax years I will have no CGT to pay. Happy days.

Jafo, so why take the rig down? I know you can do directional drilling from coiled tubing but it is more problematic.

Explorations maths is correct IF he is calculating the probability of both new wells being successful based on each having an initial COS of 20%. However he omitted to state that at 20% COS the chances of either A or B being successful is 32% and that of A and /or B being successful is 36%.
Why choose an intial COS of 20% when we would be drilling an appraisal into a known discovery, surely it would be more like drilling TE6 and TE7 at 35%. The chances of either A or B being a success rise to 45.5%. The chances of both being a success are 12.25%. The chance of A and /or B being a success are 57.75%.
Lie , damn lies and statistics.

I am not really concerned too much regarding flow rates. Far more important is the quantity of the discovery. It may well be TE10 is sub optimal in terms of flow, but the testing reveals we have 4 TCF instead of much less. I live in hope.

Schlumber are sponsoring the Gala Dinner.
Sound are sponsoring the coffee break.