Dump or hold17 Dec 2014 15:53
SP may well go down , as may the price of oil. I feel however that this profitable company has very little debt, has a large credit facility in place if required, and will be well positioned to come back with a very strong bounce when oil recovers. Oil prices will recover long term as no producer really wants to see prices at these levels. Who is going to be the one to cut production? That is the question. Why always OPEC? Because they bloody well started this cartel with Sheik Yamani in the 70s when the arabs had the upper hand. Now the Yanks are producing enough so they dont need to import any, the tables have turned. The Russians, Iranians, Iraqi, Nigerians all want and need to pump every drop to prop up their sick economies. An agreement will have to be reached with an OPEC Mk2 in due course with new members drafted in. This will in my view include all middle eastern states and Russia. The yanks will never do anything to hurt the free market as they will lose face but could curb production rather than control price. Whatever happens, if production exceeds consumption for much longer then refineries will have to stop production as their stock piles will be full. A decision on production cannot be far away regardless of price.