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New broker rating of 80p. Think they used to be £1.10. 30% reduction

We are assuming shorters here. Have to see what if any positions appear here. I think quite a lot of this could be big funds. They normally get involved after big news. Iqe really need that new CFO sooner. The whole company strategy needs a rethink. In terms of share price. I always thought 80-90 was fair value. Albeit I have not factored in the last trading update. Short term I think there will be downward pressure. Pends what price the shorters see as good value to close. If they are shorting heavily now that would suggest share has further to fall. The large trade sells could just be funds.

Piling money into a share that has done nothing but fall since 180p. As investors you need to decide when to cut your losses. The business is making money but it's reliant on the big players to use their technology. I think part of the reason EBITDA fell is they are sitting on stock they can't sell. Find out next year.

Worth reading Paul Scott's review on this share.
So revenue for year is down from est 176m to 160m. Drop of 16m? So big hit in Q4!
Revenue for H1 was 70m. So revenue for H2 was expected at 105m. I make that a drop of 15% in revenue in H2. Likely most of that from the final quarter. 32% drop in q4 compared to what was expected. I think they expected revenue higher in Q4 as production came online.

He also points out a drop of 6.1m ebitda for a growth company compared to 2017 is not good. Production was meant to be 40/60 H1 and H2. Its more 45%/55% split based on revenue. 70m/90m.

So revenue is up 28% and ebidta down 6.1m? Normally you would expect ebitda to rise if revenue rises. They have taken a huge hit here somewhere.

Revenue of 40-60% growth 2019 seems to be based on the lower expected 2018 results.
160. So 240m in 2019 if you take assume 50%. If you do this from 176m it's actually only 36% increase in revnue. This also likely includes some big asumptions on orders.

32m share trades over 2 days. Lots of funds dumping share or 1-2 big funds trading stock? The heavy drop today in the afternoon suggests there are big sell orders here. How deep are T Rowe Price and OppenheimerFunds pocckets. Can't all be shorters. My gut is this could go much lower and unless you know what you are doing steer well clear. 50-60p could easily be possible here.

GLA but I fear the worst is yet to come here. This TU tried to patch over some big cracks.

Yeah the EBITDA figures here are not good. No explanation for this. Large volumes here. I doubt shifters will really increase here. I suspect mainly funds buying and selling here. I do wonder if that 4m trade yesterday was Marshall Wace clearing out. Wait and see. So below 70p today. Tu looked positive in many areas. Their IP on many technologies protects them somewhat. Pends where market heads. Cost cutting could see some features go if it's expensive. Hmmm

I thought they borrowed the 90m for the new facility? They are spending millions on this new factory. So assume nothing! This is the danger. if the money is spent and things go wrong they may need to raise more capital? I would expect that £45 million to be much lower come end of year.

Shorters must of loved this. I certainly didn't predict this but I thought SP might dip once major shareholders stopped buying. It had gone up on no real news. How wrong could OppenheimerFunds of got this? Unless they intend to buy more to protect the share?

Shorters may well have sold up large chunks on the falling SP. Unless they think this could hit 50P? The late trading update has hammered the SP here. The SP valuation at £1 or so needed revenue growth of 40% to maintain it's value. This seems unlikely going forward. Have to wait and see.

Share could well recover tomorrow if shorts clear out in the morning. Pends which way this goes. I expect a further trading update to follow to state impact here.

The speed at which the TU came out suggests that this will definately impact IQE. Especially at a time where IQE are investing heavily in a new facility. That and Brexit could hamper IQE hugely.

Actually Shroder probably had closer to 38M shares before. So have sold around 4m shares. Maybe playing the market on the rise and falls here.

Shareholders page has been updated 31/10/2018

Issued cap:

776,017,340 (Increased by 19m or so)

Significant Shareholders:
Shareholder/Beneficial owner Shares % IC
T Rowe Price + T Rowe Price Intl 111,003,578 14.30 (up 5m shares.)
OppenheimerFunds 82,570,587 10.64 (Old data as clearly much higher. 24M higher?)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 55,200,983 7.11 (Up by 30k.)
Interactive Investor 33,964,173 4.38 (Sold 1.5m shares.)
Schroder Investment Mgt 33,817,723 4.36 (Sold 1.6M shares.)
Barclays Wealth 32,366,647 4.17 (Up by 140k shares.)
Dr Andrew W Nelson 29,459,218 3.80

Axa no longer on list. Likely due to additional shares issued. They were at 3.02%,

Overall major shareholders have increased hugely. Albeit the number of firms visibly above 3% has reduced.

One question. What were the issued shares for? Were these given to a major shareholder? Could explain OppenheimerFunds increase in shares.

Who are they buying 35m shares from? Really doubt iqe has 5% floating stock. Must be from an existing major shareholder?

'Newgate Communications has boosted its ranks with the appointment of three new members of staff. Joshua Bell, Chris Midgley and Matt Williams have joined the team following a series of client wins and growth of existing accounts.'
https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/northwest/appointments-round-up135

All sounds very promising. Including growth of existing accounts. One joined in September. Not sure about others. Seems we are past the cut back phase.

If OppenheimerFunds have managed to buy nearly 26.4m shares on the open market it suggests someone else has been selling here. That is almost 4% of IQE shares.(Including their previous buy of 7m shares.) I would suggest this was probably agreed before it happened with another fund.

Certainly this is the reason the SP has shot up. It was not just OppenheimerFunds who have increased their stake hugely here. Schroder too. I wonder who has cleared out here? The drop to 70p was certainly due to 1-2 funds likely selling. Since then 2-3 of the major shareholders have mopped up the sold stock.

Wellington short reduced by 0.02% on 1st of November.

This really has shot up here. Can the SP breach a £1 soon? If the main sellers are clear very possible. 70p seems the floor here pending any news.
Marshall Wace also reduced on 31/10/2018 by 0.15%. Edging closer to 0.5% or below.

GLA.

Not sure if this 200k savings is something new. Or fact Redleaf has moved into UK HQ. I suspect stuff like HR/account moving to London office.

Think we guessed about the write down of the brand.

If all the units can finally function as one strong unit that will be a good thing.

In other news Stephen Byfield has joined another firm. Wonder what he plans to do with those 15m shares? I suspect he left months ago.

Waiting on debt news. I did wonder if we would get an RNS from this yesterday. Shares traded today barely 44k if you include Nexexchange.

If things are going well maybe we will get a trading statement. 2019 may be first clean results in a while. See what q3 and q4 do here. I suspect TU in Jan/Feb. Debt news in next month or so? Wait and see.

Redleaf Rebrands as Newgate Communications

Porta Communications Plc (AIM: PTCM) announces that its 100% owned subsidiary, Redleaf Polhill Limited ("Redleaf"), has been fully integrated into its global strategic communications agency, Newgate Communications, and will now operate under that brand.

Redleaf was founded in January 2000 by Emma Kane and, in December 2010, acquired and successfully integrated Polhill Communications. On 23 April 2014, Redleaf was acquired by Porta, becoming a wholly owned subsidiary in June 2018 on completion of the earn-out provisions of the acquisition agreement.

Emma Kane was appointed Chief Executive of Newgate Communications Limited and Joint-CEO of Porta on 27 April 2018; the integration of Redleaf and Newgate Communications Limited began on that date.

The merger of Redleaf and Newgate Communications Limited from an accounting perspective will result in a write off of the Redleaf brand intangible which as at 30 June 2018 had a carrying value of £0.4m. In turn this write off will reduce the annual amortisation charge on brand intangibles by £0.1m from 2019.

Additionally, Porta is centralising certain UK subsidiary back office functions in the UK which is expected to deliver annualised cost savings in excess of £0.2m.

Commenting on the rebranding, Emma Kane said:

"This is a very exciting milestone. Today we are formally bringing together two award-winning brands, two great teams, and two exceptional client bases to provide fully integrated and seamless communications under the Newgate Communications brand.

"We now have 16 offices across 7 countries and a significantly expanded range of services delivered by a team of 281 motivated and talented people, passionate about being the best. Our focus going forwards will be on solving communications challenges with evidence, enthusiasm, creativity and integrity.

"Under one brand we are able to reflect the unity and consistency of services whether we are operating locally, nationally or internationally; whatever we are doing for our client, it is one organisation, committed to excellence. I am incredibly proud of everything that the team has achieved to date and very motivated by the immense opportunity we have going forwards."

https://twitter.com/PortaComms

Worth reading the article PR Weekly on their Twitter feed. Seems they have made some more hires, few new clients (Including FTSE 100) and Newgate is now functioning as one company rather than 4-5 companies all doing their own thing.

All sounds good in principle but we need an update on debts and how they plan to ever make any money. Of course they don't tell us what clients they may have lost.

Not watched EK's video on Youtube.

Overall remember this is a PR firm.

At these prices I don't plan to sell. I think Bob needs to write off some of this debt as this would double to triple his share value. Also reduce loans to 4%. I think this announcement won't be far off.

I think they should also pause all these share issues till Porta is making money.

OppenheimerFunds previously had 70m shares. They have bought 7m or so shares.

On 4th October Shroder went from below 5% to above 5%, Today they have announced below 5%. They have not sold out as they would of had to state they fell below 3%. They would of likely stated 0% if they had sold up completely. You would need 30m+ trades for Shroder to sell up. They could be anywhere between 4-5% right now.

Given the upward pressure here it seems the major shareholders here have been mopping up the sold stock. Oddo BHF Asset Management SAS could be a seller here. Used to have 3% of stock.

For how long will these major shareholders mop up all these shares? Tthey will all have a limit. T Rowe Price owning over 16-20% of share might give them a lot of power here.

In any case the day to day dealing of funds does not really tell us what shape this company is in.

New contract?
https://www.newgatecomms.com/blog/index.php/2018/10/29/centralnic-appoints-newgate-as-its-global-comms-adviser/

Redleaf rebranding on 1st November. Publicasity is now part of Newgate too. Be down to 3 brands soon? 2112, Newgate and CAP?

Newgate webpage now has more staff from Redleaf/Publicasity listed. Note all the major hires such as Gavin Devine and Charlie Chichester which were hired before Steffan took over seem to have left. Charlie Chichester now seems to work for Sard Verbinnen & Co. Can't remember all of the rest. Newgate seems more streamlined now with a lot of the high paid senior staff gone. Are they making money though?

Still seems to be a major stock holder here selling. Guess next news will be loan news. That or a TU about how changes have improved business after the clearout. They need to do something about this growing debt here. Issuing shares at 1p seems crazy. Time for Morton to write off some of the debt? He has made so much profit from it and it would increase the worth of his shares here.

Really not sure a takeover from SEC is coming here. Their cash call for 4m only raised 1m.

Wait and see I guess and hope they can turn this around.

Marshall Wace reduced again on 23rd by 0.09%. Still does not explain the volume from yesterday. I think they are gradually clearing here but slowly.

So on 12th October ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP reduced their short from 0.5% to 0.11%. Unclear if they completely sold up. On 23rd October they are back with a short position of 0.92%. So an increase of at least 0.81%. Shorts back to 10.51% now. Pump and dump!

It appears shorters that sold up circa 70-80P are now increasing their shorts after the steep rise in the SP here to nearly 94p. Not suprised the SP is struggling to stay above 80p here. At least 3 shorters here have increased their positions.

A lot of automated trades here today. One fund sells and another mopping up the stock.

Nearly 5pm and IQE trades have still not fully appeared here for close of play.