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I would not be buying in now. There is an article on ADVFN about how semiconductor demand has fallen again. Still big risks here for IQE. Lemos must know what short term demand is. Brokers are predicting losses of 10m in 2025. When do you ever see this share making money? Sit from side and watch for now. Maybe the turnaround will come. Just does not feel like it is due to happen quickly.

When you try to push a share below 20p and you get to 19.90. hmmm

It would need more bad news for it to reach 15.5p. If there was a bigger downturn they would announce further cutbacks. 7% does not really show any seriious intent. 165m turnover predicted for 2024/2025. That is not great. Based on their current operational gearing they need to be hitting 200M+ to be making money. Maybe 185-190m to break even.

Market cap currently 199m. If they burn through the 30m and revenue does not increase then SP will fall. If they don't hit 147m then Sp will likely fall. If we get another bad TU before Jan that will be bad. They could do a closing statement but we already had the share issue update. Companies really don't want to be updating the market each 2 months as that looks bad.

Given how inflation is at 7-8% and revenue is barely at 2017-2019 level that tells a story. If they reach 165m next year it will have taken 7 years to grow revenue from 154-165m. Assuming they even hit 165m. Current expectation is H2 will be a recovery time. H1 results will be painful to read.

This si all about the expansion plan now. do or die. If you can't expand slash costs by 30-40% and go back to a smaller business with a much lower cost base. If that was to happen Lemos would of failed.

Https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/iqe/broker-views/broker-forecast/

2025 brokers forecast 165.88m revenue with a -10.79m loss. So 32m loss expected over 3 years.

Assuming our new CEO can't bring in these massive new orders he has promised.

He loaned them out to a third party? He didn't buy any.

Looks like this reduction was purely because of the issue of 155m shares.

So JP Morgan reduced on Monday by 0.18% to 0.94%.

RNS of holdings show Lombard added 446,408 shares since the last update before taking on the 50M new shares. They would need about 5m more shares to reach 15%.

So Jp Morgan increased short on 19th to 1.12%. up 0.07%.

2x two million late trades appeared this morning. 4 million shares.

If a bank thinks you can't repay debt they can demand the money back. Otherwise results would of been out today. This was forced on them. If IQE went under it would be sold off and banks get money anyway. IQE are forecast to lose nearly 30 Million. Plus losses from 2022. They are burning through cash quickly. They can barely afford the new tools.

Note also only 1m shares issued at the 20p mark from retail Investers.

We all knew the news was coming today. Only reason results date changed as HSBC wanted to pull their banking overdraft.

Deutsche broker cut rating to 30p.

Yes parts of 2022 results good but we know 2023 won't come close to matching that with revenue closer to 140m.

See below. If they can't raise 25m HSBC terms get much worse. At which point you wonder if IQE would get taken over cheaply to someone who has £££ to spare. Apple or Global Foundaries? Venture capitalist who would take it private and invest 30-40 million. See below from results.

1. Refinancing of the Group's £28.7m ($35.0) multi-currency revolving credit facility provided by HSBC Bank plc on 17 May 2023. The tenor of the facility has been extended to 1 May 2026 in the event of a successful equity fund raise of greater than £25.0m on or before 23rd May 2023. Quarterly leverage and interest cover covenant tests will apply to the facility, commencing at December 2023.

2. The Group is launching an equity fundraise via an accelerated bookbuild process, immediately upon the announcement of these unaudited preliminary financial statements. The Group is planning to raise £30.0m via the Placing in order to ensure that the Company can continue to invest to execute on its strategy, meet its near-term liquidity requirements and deliver a sustainable balance sheet position going forward.

In the event that less than £25.0m of equity is raised, the tenor of the facility will be to 1 May 2025 and the new facility will be subject to a minimum monthly liquidity requirement of a £3.0m cash holding, with quarterly leverage and interest cover covenant tests commencing at June 2023. In this scenario, the Group would work with the relationship lending bank to navigate forecast covenant breaches.

Is there a risk this firm could go under? Looks like the bank were about to call in the debt unless they raised money on the open market. With interest rates going up it might of got expensive. Least the directors are taking shares. Really not sure what to think. My gut is avoid for now. Shorters will play havoc here come tomorrow. UNless they decide to clear if it goes to 20p?

By all means find something positive to talk about.

Least Lombard still buying. If you are positive you believe the new CEO will bring in all these new orders. Judging from broker figures 2024 may be year for that.

Actually broker suggesting closer to 16.7m average. Of course this may exclude one offs.

Problem is lack of demand. Any rise in SP likely down to Lombards. Results and AGM are next big dates. As it stands IQE currently due to lose £20m this year. £10m next year. Why risk money now? This could fall more in short term. For their plan they require £££. That will require SP recovery. Will funds take on more shares after last time? If they can't I can see a private equity firm taking this on injecting money and a small premium paid to shareholders. It would then go private. Right now I doubt anyone would risk that. There has to be an opportunity. IQE has not made a profit in 4 years.

Lombard still buying. At these prices averaging down. That or supporting SP.

Many of the major funds have been burned on this. IQE need a huge turnaround just to break even. Pressure still feels downward here. Volume trades have not kicked in at these prices. 2-3 million trades a day is barely 3% of stock. Minimal. Private investor may be buying but mostly soaking up sellers. 20p still feels possible here but a slow grind without shorters. 22p is next target. I would rather wait for news before investing here as H2 may not be as strong as expected. Likes of Apple and Samsung not amazing markets.