Member Info for Gotrader

Rises for no reason. Falls for no reason

Looks like they held 0.49% since Sept 2018. So they still think it's worth holding here.

For now losses and slow growth is all they can probably see. Still big risk here but the share is creeping back up.

New short position. GSA Capital Partners LLP now 0.5%. Was at 0.49% so up 0.01% on 1st April 2022.
So still some shorts out there.

UT nearly 680k shares. Not seen a UT trade that big for IQE before.

Not really. He has tweaked operations but i think if sales don't follow they need to slash costs. Close sites. It's crazy how they can go from 18m or so profits to 5-6m loss. They seem to have lost track of what they are doing. I assume Tim is doing something useful. He knows which sites are making money. They seem to be waiting for revenues to rise. Hence lack of action.

Maybe buying opportunity but IQE never seem to beat their targets. Which is a worry when your expecting them to lose money and were only 3 months into year. Market keeping SP at 33p. Assuming no shorts at play.

See what Edison suggest. For now they need some big news or H1 results will not be great.

They need a wholesale change to their operations and to cut out the trivial things that are losing money. That or find big orders.

2 more 600k trades just appeared from yesterday.

Schroder made the comments last year. As for the shares directors bought? Likely mopping up the fund that was selling. There were some big moves on updated shareholders page. Plus 4.2m in large trades since results with late trades yesterday over 500k+. Volumes normally peak around results. May be 6 months before any new notification is shown.

So who do we trust? Another fund exiting IQE (Shroder) accused IQE of lying. Now Cannacord are questioning a firm they have a 8% stake in. We all knew the results would be about getting all the bad news out.

It's possible once the market settles other fund could start mopping up some shares. However how many times as a fund do you keep seeing bad news and say we will keep buying up the sold stock? Maybe sub 30p this has some value but investing in loss making companies seems risky. They are unlikely to meet 167m target Edison had for this year. Which also puts 2023 at risk unless they get some huge orders in from a key player. 180m+ in 2023 seems very unlikely.

My view was for 2022 they had to increase revenue just to meet the 167m target. At present 160m looks wishful thinking.

The new CEO has not yet made any huge changes so wait and see. Too early to panic but we need to know where the higher revenue is going to come from.

Not so sure after this verdict! They hold 8% of IQE and they are saying there is better value in the market. On this basis are they now saying they will sell their stake? Or is this just a broker report. Been some very large late buys/sells at close of play. The fact this has fallen 14% suggests a revalue or someone selling. Why so bullish about a firm that is almost certain to post a loss this year. Question is how big. The new CEO needs to pull off a miracle here.

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Canaccord Genuity downgraded semiconductor IQE from 'speculative buy' to 'hold' on Wednesday, stating the firm was stuck between "a wafer and a chip place".

Canaccord Genuity stated that given IQE's "uninspiring growth and profitability outlook", it was now opting to move to the sidelines on the stock, as although the shares' 2x enterprise value/sales ratio was "undemanding" and sitting towards the lower end of the historic range, with UK investors being "spoiled for choice" in better relative value in more "predictable and profitable" software and tech-enabled services names, it chose to downgrade the stock and lower its target price from 55.0p to 43.0p.

The Canadian bank said in a strong semiconductor demand and 5G growth environment, IQE's soft revenue performance remained "somewhat puzzling" to its analysis, suggesting "meaningful value share loss" to Asian compound wafer competitors over the last 12+ months.

"Reversing this will not be an easy task for the new CEO whose strategic options (M&A, additional growth investments) are somewhat constrained by a tight balance sheet with £12-15m of net debt and negative free cash flow expected this and next year," said Canaccord.

Broker downgrade Cannacord down to 43p. Down to hold rating too. They don't hold back any punches either.

There were 2x 1.6m trades showing this morning. Someone clearing out yesterday? Or buys?

Actually the 4.2m loss was for 2022. They had predicted 9.2m loss before tax. Of course hard to compare Edison to real figures as they exclude so much and IQE adjust it's own figures.

Late 1m trade.

Had a brief look through. Edison's numbers never include one off costs. They predicted 152m. Which IQE have beaten by 2m. They predicted a 4.2m loss. Actual 6.5m. Net cash is down 8m on the year. About 14m in one off costs relating to technology they have parked for now and restructuring costs. Their gross revenue fails to cover their 25m admin costs.

Going forward 154M + 5% works out about 161m for 2022. Of which I am guessing the bulk of that gain will be in Q2. Which means H1 figures will not be pretty.

Edison had predicted 167m for 2022. Does not sound like they will achieve this. I took a low one digit figure to mean below 5%. Could even be below 161m.

They have posted a video today which seems quite positive. The new CEO knew there were issues when he took over. These will take time to fix and new partnerships will take time to be built in. What is the firm worth today? Not so clear. If global markets go into recession and a cost of living crisis takes place I can see many firms cutting back and reducing volumes. Assuming the parts shortage is not still ongoing.

Unfortunately more jam tomorrow but they have a credible leader at the helm who should be able to turn this around. Unfortunately it will be a waiting game next 3-4 months to see where the year takes IQE. Need some news to push the SP here. Still seems like there are buyers in background. Would not be shocked to see more director buys here if SP remains subdued. Assuming they have not already bought. They must see something here to be buying.

Not had a chance to look. Any good? 2022 outlook?

Hardly matters. Results will define share price.

Updated major shareholder page. as at 28 February 2022
Invesco 142,435,802 17.71 (Up 270k)
T Rowe Price Global Investments 78,503,237 9.76 (Down 5M)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management 64,551,914 8.03 (Down 200k)
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers 60,671,260 7.54 (Up 3m)
Interactive Investor 43,223,014 5.37 (Up 2.9M)
Dr Andrew W Nelson* 40,317,234 4.54 (Up 4.2m)
Lombard Odier Investment Managers (Used to be Barclays) 36,287,627 4.51 (Up 11.6M)
M&G Investments 27,742,549 3.45 (No change)
* Per the Company’s RNS announcement of 11 May 2020, 12,121,711 Ordinary Shares of Dr Nelson’s total beneficial interest are subject to a Sale and Repurchase Agreement with Equities First Holdings.

Not on list any more.
AXA Framlington Investment Managers Used to have 25.8m shares.

All of which suggests other funds and directors have mopped up AXA sold shares? Of course Axa was close to 3% anyway so no way to prove this but Lombard got 12m shares from somewhere.

https://www.iqep.com/investors/major-shareholders/

What is your average price lordloadsoflolly? I keep thinking about taking a position but I think 27p was the buy point i missed. You would think results will have a positive Q1 feel albeit not sure how much data they can really have by March. Maybe Dec/Jan figures? The directors would not be buying if things were going terrible. Then again this is IQE and it's been a roller coaster of bad news for last few years. Be hard not to make a loss in 2022? They need an upturn just to reach their predictions of the market recovering. Which is why this share is likely still below 40p.

The clearing of visible shorts is of course good news.

Ennismore now below 0.5%. Reduced from 0.55% to 0.44% on 3/3/2022.

No short positions left above 0.5%. Could be a few below 0.5%.

Think TRP still have shares on loan.