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As expected from the auto buys last week canaccord up nearly 10m shares

They are forecast to lose around 25m for 2023. So any ebitda of 4m or so will not cover the 29m or so cost of sales.

Brokers forecast 112m revenue for year with about 25m loss which may not include one offs. With sales set to rise to 146.7m (-14.95M loss) 2024 and 163.53m (-11.21M loss) in 2025.

They are geared for large scale production now. In 2009 they were a much smaller operation with running costs of 16m or so compared to £29m now. This is why on 132m-160m they were able to generate profits of 16-20m. Now they would need revenue of 185m+ to make an actual profit.

The CEO believes he can bring in large orders with 30% margins which can turn around IQE. They have a Welsh site that is only using 10% of it's space. Production here could be increaed 10 fold. If they use all their sites could they be turning over closer to 400-500M? What they lack is orders and scale of economy.

What they got in 2023 was orders shrinking form 167m to about 112m. 112 is the estimate. Results suggested 10 or so % ahead of H1.

Judging by the CEO investment we can assume he still has confidence in this plan. If the orders were to stream in then future years revenue could be higher. Waiting for evidence of this.

Most of the ventures seem private firms. If they wanted to sell ONT they would not get 200p. They would likely have to accept below that price. 180p or less? Unless ONT suddenly showed it was worth several billion. For a 1.7bn firm it's turning over less than 86m in H1 with a 70m loss. 10% of ONT is about 170m. Meaning the other investments worth about 300m here. Market is valuing firm at it's cash and cash equivalent, value.

ONT near 200p. Even IPO seem to be reducing at 200p or so.

Mirriad advertising 5 years ago was close to 63p. Now 1-2p.

Where is IPO's main star for the future now? 60p was supposed to be bargain level? Where is the floor here? 40-44p? Maybe the directors know something the market don't.

A November TU very unlikely now. I did wonder about that trade yesterday. Why wouldn't he buy at these prices if he bought at 20p.

All those automated buys at the same time are funds buying in. Maybe Cannacord. They were happily buying at 17-18p before. So why not buy at 14-18p? They would need 10m shares for a notification so a long way off.

Maybe this is why IQE had been rising then.

Is this good news? IQE previously suggested 1 billion cost to get Wales up and running. That is over 5 times IQE net worth.

To be fair it went back up to 60p more on hope than any signs of real orders in 2022. Hard to know if it was over sold at 13-14p. If shorters clearing or someone else just mopping up stock. Volumes still very low but clearly demand for now. I don't expect a TU this year. Even if they did what would constitute sales well ahead of what they promised in H1 results? 120M turnover? Or large scale new orders? Think too early for that. So maybe just oversold. No director buys at these lows.

Classic auto trades. I wonder if we might see another large sell from Invesco appear later. These could be canaccord auto trades.

Early trades today at mid 12p. Weird. A lot of volume today considering the hour.

To be fair most of this would of happened anyway even without him.

On paper IQE with all it's skill and products it should be making millions. Sadly the industry just ignores it. Share falling away again. Bad time to buy here. Let it drift for 6-7 months. Then take a look.

No. Nothing has changed as far as I can tell.

GSA Capital Partners LLP increased their short from 0.49% to 0.5%. Assuming they made no other changes to this position since May 2022. Shorters still at play here.

So as a seller you sell what you can and see what market buys. Once done you sell more. Feels like investors getting sucked in here.

You often see sell offs after share issues. They are forecast to lose 25m on turnover of about 112m this year. Loving your courage here.

Is there someone who could buy IQE and immediately use their empty factories? IQE are barely scratching the surface on the volumes they could achieve here.

Not closed but now at 0.49% as of 12/10/2023. We will never know if they have reduced below 0.49%.

Could still be other shorts below 0.5%. Not sure how much value there is at 15-16p to keep shorts here. Most assume the worst news is over now.

So the 2.5m trade from a few days ago was likely Invesco as their holdings has dropped by 2.5m.

In theory but not for IQE it seems not. Maybe the rules are not this simple. Maybe shares held in different funds. They used to use Hales Hargreave and Marlborough funds. They have since renamed Hales Hargreave to Canaccord.. Think they have used Canaccord brand for a few years now.