Member Info for gordon1237

Was going to post this yesterday, sitting by the Thames at Kew but lost all feeling in my

fingers, finished the walk, had a pint and went home.

Anyway, the question is, what could the sp reach when the jv news drops ? Almost impossible to answer given the unknowns.

They have said that in exchange for 50 % of the PSC they will get a free carry of the first year's work programme. Will that programme be as laid out in the August presentation? Unknown.

If we assume it is. That entails 40 million usd Capex in the first year. Syn's share of that Capex would be 20 million usd, so the jv would be paying that for 50 %. So does that mean Syn is worth 20 million ? Well in theory it should be more than that. Syn will have the benefit of the 20 million free ride on the first year. According to the presentation, excluding Capex, Cambay will make 20 million profit in the first year. So will they get 10 million in income? Not sure, as including Capex, Syn's share of a 20 million loss is 10 million. As I have said before I am not an accountant,so not exactly sure how you decide the overall value of Syn based on this possible deal. Somewhere between 20 and 40 million usd? Of course there is no guarantee the free carry will be as much as that.

Then again, you could argue, again based on what is in the presentation that it is worth a lot more than that.They give an NPV for 10 wells of 58 million and say a full field development will be 30+ wells which could equate to nearly 200 million usd. Or more cautiously given the time scale let's say 150 million. So 75 million for Syn in theory.

So overall we have a theoretical range of value of 20 to 75 million usd or £16 million to £60 million.If we assume that at some point the sp exceeds 0.14 there could be 12.7 billion shares. Thus gives an sp range of 0.13 to 0.47p.

Obviously, the market doesn't believe even the lowest possibility. Presumably due to the long drawn out process and the failure to get anywhere near predicted time scales. Also, the deal may not be as good as postulated

Personally I'm not sure what to expect when jv news finally drops. Just have to play it by ear. Could br fantastic or a damp squib.

Overall, yes I think I have a chance of getting my money back and maybe a bit more just on the letter of intent. If not,will have to wait and see.

SS. It may not be possible to get out at the peak on the day but you can get close. In April 2021 some say the peak was 0.5. The most I saw was 0.45 and managed to get out at 0.4. I think Conger did better.

All of this is theoretical and many holes could be picked in it. Feel free to do so.

I have almost convinced myself that it's ridiculously undervalued at this price and am tempted to have a fresh punt but then I remember all the previous failures to deliver.

Hmmm. See what the coming days bring.

Gla.

Sausage of you read SS's properly you will see that he is claiming no such thing. He is accusing Aiming high of claiming that.

SS. Nothing anally retentive about typing the correct number 0.06p instead of a nonsense 6p. Not too hard is it?

It's not an all time low. Will comment on the 0.19 tomorrow. Atb.

Agree SS. Once details of the agreed jv deal are announced it will react instantly. My gut freling is that the level it reaches on the day of that rns will be the highest it gets for a good while. I am hoping it will go high enough for me to at least get my money back and hopefully a bit more. Unfortunately, my hopes of making a big profit have hugely diminished due to this long drawn out process snd the huge increase in the number of shares over the last frw years. Gla.

Situation with the share options from the February convertible loan. The loan can be converted into around 850 million shares from about now until March. However, the conversion price is 0.08 pence, slightly higher than the current price. So does that mean the conversion won't be made and Syn will have to repay the loan ? Of course Republic and other participants may have little choice to convert as they may have forward sold with the SP being much higher in February.

Looks a strong signal Espen. Well spotted.

Lol.

Definitely a sell at that price. Could explain yesterday's drop.

Dont see how anything in those posts could be objected to Zag.

It's clients of Novum who are participating in the offer. They are taking warrants in lieu of fees.

Another typo. Meant to say 2 or 3. Let's hope we find out very soon. Atb. Gla.

Meant to say about right.

Fair enough Hugo, but that could have been said (and was) about numerous placings in the past.

As for the number of free carry wells they have said it will be the first years work programme. In the August presentation the first years Capex was 40 million usd. As Syn after the jv would have 50% their share would be 20 million usd which seems right. Probably 2 or 4 wells plus other infrastructure.

" Roland Wessel, Synergia's CEO, visited several companies in Delhi and Ahmedabad concerning the Cambay field farm out process. These companies are finalising their due diligence and detailed technical and commercial discussions are ongoing. Synergia is optimistic that a farm out arrangement will be achieved, enabling the commencement of the full field development in 2023 ".

We all hope that " This time it's different ".

Gla.

SS. Briana definitely said that it was a regulation that they could not share directly with retail investors. Seems incomprehensible. Anyway this is what was said in via email.

"I'm afraid that I am unable to share Panmure Gordon’s report due to the FCA not allowing us to share directly with retail investors for regulatory reasons. You will need to request the report through your broker. "

SS. I contacted Briana with a quick email, thinking that she would be able to put up a link. Also, they haven't said it isn't available to retail investors just that they have to go through their brokers. Presumably to prove they are investors.

SS. Not yet. Probably not worth the effort. It may seem contradictory to be moaning about not being able to click on a link and see it but I just can't understand why something that has been produced on behalf of the company should not be readily available to all investors including retail.

The question is what credence to you give to a prediction like that. The market is unimpressed, probably due to the fact that in house brokers aren't exactly considered unbiased. Also these sort of predictions don't generally come with a time scale. They could be talking 2 years or 5 or 10.

Nevertheless I still think it's crazy that retail investors can't access the reasoning easily.

Had a further comment from Briana saying that she was equally frustrated at not being able to share the Panmure report. What a bonkers situation.

I admire your optimism HRS. Gla.