Member Info for goldgnome

Interesting slide.. Martin Horgan in Highlights and bold, Centamin in lowlights....hmmm a concern.

My understanding: It s a good policy to engage with the Board on a takeover, as the Board is compelled by law to act in the best interests of the shareholders. This plays out informally, but can go to formal and hostile in a public forum, and according to the rules of the Market Place. The offer is in writing and describes in detail the value of the offer. If the board rejects the offer, then they must do so in writing and in the public forum detail why they have rejected. If the Offerer thinks the board is acting unreasonably and not in the shareholders interests, can seek approval from the Market Owners (TSX, ASX) to approach the shareholders individally...and so on.

The Management Manages the operation of the company (hpefully) and does not deal with shareholders or represent the company on such matters.

So if I desired to takeover a company, I would engage with the Chairman or MD in a friendly chat about out the benefits, and if there is an amber light, then put my offer on the table in writing to the Chariman/MD.

the gnome

In my experience Geologist have neither the training, depth of experience or financial knowhow to manage feasibility studies or mining development programs, or in fact mines. What qualification did the previous Centamin CEO have? A PhD in geology is defintely not a requirement for doing feasibility studies, in fact it seems to act it he opposite direction.

The litany of mistakes in mining companies is gigantic.
Some of my "quiet" experiences

the CEO who had no idea what the cost of mining was? He had asked sevearl times.

the mine development which followed the wrong quartz vein (it was barren), and then they checked for gold ...geologist got in front of the cart? too smart???

the mine manager who put the tailings dam on the ore extension

the major company which shorted on the metalurgical studies and only sampled the oxide ore, and so designed the processing plant. It was later found that >80% of the ore was refractory.

the major company which made a new discovery, did some preliminary scoping drilling and work, decided it was too small at 150k ounces, and sold it for a song. It was later found to have dearer 5 m ounces of gold, a slight miscalculation?

the major company which discovered a massive porphyry deposit in the philipines, and then found out the levels of corruption, not to mention local terrorism , were outside the boards stringent guidelines (tail wagging the dog???), prohibited the company from doing any development of what they found...

and so on, and so forth

say no more...

the gnome

The mining idustry is not good at talking about its boob-ups, even within a company. Net results are

1. it never learns and
2. shareholders tend to suffer.

An insightful study on the success or more commonly faiings of Feasibility studies can be found at below link. I bet you cant find too many reports/presentations like this?

https://vdocuments.mx/why-feasibility-studies-fail-melbourne201302presentation.html

good luck

the gnome

There are two important and immediate questions to consider:

Will this war extend beyond the Ukrainian-Russian borders to include Russian responses that hurt one or more NATO countries in significant enough ways that could lead to tit-for-tat escalations that could lead the war to become between Russia and NATO countries? Or, will cease-fire talks lead to some sort of cessation of fighting?

How supportive will China be to Russia?

Classically and currently the world’s leading power (which typically has the leading currency) is spending much more money than it is earning, which is leading it to borrow a lot and print a lot of money to buy the debt, which is reducing the value of the debt and money relative to the value of goods, services, and non-debt investment assets. This is producing inflation in goods, services, and investment assets. History has shown that when the coffers are bare and this sort of money printing takes place, financial weakness is near, and financial weakness causes all sorts of problems and precedes declines. When the coffers are bare and there is the need for more spending on both “guns and butter” there is a lot more printing of money, inflation, and political reactions to inflation.

We are havng to suffer an election in Oz, which is depressing. Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle-a-lot-dumber. We all have our corsses to bear.

Good days for gold, Good years ahead for gold

best
the gnome

The message yesterday:

Hope you are doing well. Just wanted to quickly follow up on my previous message. As we are nearing the 3rd Egypt International Mining Show, scheduled for 28th | 29th March 2022 ( virtual connect), I wanted to know if you would like to participate ?

For event updates follow our page on

LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/egypt-international-mining-show/

Event Website : https://egypt-mining.com/

best
the gnome

An update from...Oz?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whnhIrtd9Fc

From about 7:50, Dirty Laptop, Biden, Censorship, US Elections and Ukraine - what is possible?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TBn4Fy7jMo

It does make me wonder just who knows whats really going on ...

The continual breakdown of trust is a great thing for gold ....

Just my humble opinion

the gnome

The avergae punter maynot keep track of the strategic assets of nations ... worth a look and a thought ,....

Metallic minerals?

7th place in the world in iron extraction: 39 M tonnes and 2.4% of global output (after Australia, China, Brazil, India, Russia and RSA)
8th place in the world in manganese extraction: 651 thousand tonnes and 3.6% of global output (after RSA, Australia, China, Gabon, Brazil, Ghana and India)
6th place in the world in titanium extraction: 431 thousand tonnes and 6.3% of global output (after China, RSA, Australia, Canada ? Mozambique)
2nd place in the world in gallium extraction: 9 tonnes and 2.9% of global output (after China)
5th place in the world in germanium extraction: 1 tonne and 1% of global output (after China, Russia, USA and Japan)
Non-metallic minerals
6th place in the world in kaolins extraction: 2,4 M tonnes and 5,9% of global output (after China, USA, Germany, India and Czech Republic)
10th place in the world in zirconium silicate extraction: 26 thousand tonnes and 1,9% of global output (after Australia, RSA, China, Mozambique, Senegal, USA, Kenia, India and Indonesia)
8th place in the world in graphite extraction: 13 thousand tonnes and 1.3% of global output (after China, Brazil, North Korea, India, Russia, Canada and Madagascar)

Mineral fuels
13th place in the world in power plant coal extraction: 18,9 M tonnes and 0,4% of global output (after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Australia, RSA, Russia, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Vietnam and Canada)
12th place in the world in coking coal extraction: 5,2 M tonnes and 0,5% of global output (after China, Australia, Russia, USA, India, Canada, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Mozambique and Colombia)
10th place in the world in uranium extraction: 1 tonne and 1,4% of global output (after Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia, Niger, Uzbekistan, Russia, China and USA)..Uranium source for Europe, sounds good? Low carbon..etc ...

In recent years, the Government significantly improved and liberalized the system of granting permits for extraction of minerals. Moreover, the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine presented an Investment Atlas of Subsoil Management, which comprises over 140 fields to be set for electronic auctions in the nearest future.

Great weather for natural resources, oddly enough

best
the gnome

Raining cats and dogs in Brisbane. Couldn't even see the road that I was driving on...LOL

The other weather is great for gold and certain real assets ...

“There have historically been few asset classes that have been effective hedges against geopolitical risk, although gold has been one of them, along with the [US] dollar.” (and we all know about the Us$ ? ..."here a $, there a $, everywhere a $, old Macdonald had a farm ... etc )

Gold spurted higher to trade at levels not seen in more than a year, and has added 7 per cent this month.

US Federal Reserve officials indicated on Thursday that the central bank would likely press ahead with an interest rate rise at its March meeting, despite any potential hit to the global economy from Russia’s military action in Ukraine. and what would you expect, totally out of tune ...

Sanctions imposed by Western powers so far have avoided gas exports, given their strategic importance to Europe, although Germany decided it would cancel the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which circumvents Ukraine...nearly always a bit of oil and gas in the mix of any conflict?

The combination of tight inventory and low spare production capacity across the commodities complex means small disruptions could have outsized impacts on prices in the near term, Goldman Sachs analysts warned.

AND HOW WOULD YOU GUESS IT? ! Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury.

Could it solve a lot of Europes issues about accessing natural resources? They do not want to mine in their own backyard. Dirty stuff. We are developed nations with civilised peoples. And they cannot complete against China in Africa.

the gnome

Some good points Cowichan. When the pit wall fails they obviously have to change their mine plan immediately (all hands on deck, think panic), and depending on whether what "fell in", is ore or waste or of intermediatry value, it can have different effects on AISC, head grade etc. Lets just say things are muddied and mixed somewhat. They would announce the new plan, which is what they did in their presentations including the Jan 2022 presentation. Investors should look at the ounces produced prediction, and predictions on strip ratio, AISC's etc. This is what dicates the margins, profitability etc. .. as well as the price of gold (!!, anyone got it right so far?)...

I like the figures they present, and this is what they will be held to account on. Slide 24 on the Jan presentation is one to look at. This year they are predicting higher AISC, and thank goodness for the global instability (sad comment), the gold price could exceed the cost increases, and the margins could be healthier than predicted. After, 2023 on, gut feel is CEY will be a cash cow again.

Very interested in the reource to reserve conversion underground, of 45%. I am ot sure what the assumption is here, but I think there are a number of large mining companies who might seriously disagree with this conservative assumption.

Gold, no debt, no hedge, no royatlies, no streaming with a healthy social license to operate, is a great place to be.

I hope the CEO is getting soid support from his Board of Directors. I still think they need to some real experience depth on the noard, and now would be a great deal. Real exploration knowldege and experience, real open pit and underground mining experience. Be great time for a coup I think, to many free lunches

best
the gnome

Thanks Sotolo.

I am admitting I know very little about the Ukraine. I feel very sorry for the innocent people who want to live a normal life there. I would think the most reasonable way to solve this is to get the politicians and ideologues, all herded into a 10km2 paddock, given weapons of reasonable choice and mobile phone taken away from them, and are told, may the they solve their differences as best they can with the resources they have at hand and perhaps get them to show some planning and management skills, and set some time lines and a gantt diagram.

I know I am very distrustful of media generally, whether it be "mass" or "social.
There has been enormous distrust built up around some of the propaganda, in terms of its origins, its broadcast, management, controls etc. Goes back to the work of Edward Debares in the 1920's ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfTgAlpw8zY

https://theconversation.com/the-manipulation-of-the-american-mind-edward-bernays-and-the-birth-of-public-relations-44393
I am not saying there are not "good journalists" which is a ridiculous claim. Good journalists can be compromised by "management.", at least for a while. Its the "systematic journalism" that is the issue. Propaganda. Marketing.

Good luck to us all,

the gnome

Interesting post. Martin has noticeably built a team, which he needs to help him deliver. Smart. Notg unique.

Delivery of a stripping problem will not happen overnight.

I won't waste time on discussing the shortcomings of the previous "management ", but there were issues. Suggest look at where they have re-appeared, and AVOID

I do suggest doing your own research, and tuning in...Centamin will announce its audited financial results for the twelve months ended 31 December 2021 on Wednesday, 16 March 2022.

Good Luck, and what a heap of rubbish on the Ukraine, a truly pathetic effort! on both sides !!! The usual players play the usual song, to justify standing armies of poor people, coerced to shoot other poor people, and we call it a war and on it goes ....

The great thing about today is one can see beyond the ideas of the western mess (sorry press)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrGLhhTtxFU&t=1428s

One would know what is important in ones life. Remarkably little. Least of all the "news" on the BBC, CBNC, RT, and the
rest

good luck and good night

the Gnome

And so after the most ridiculous of rubbish since Saint Princess's ANDREWS forays into innnocent young women, we are now suggested that the Fed (owned by private intsutions) is a magnificent guiding force and there will be nothing but good things for all. The fairies at the end of the garden have never looked so attractive?!!

Russia is continuing its military buildup around Ukraine, Western officials said, even as Moscow announced it had begun drawing down some troops and released footage of tanks and armored personnel carriers departing Crimea. LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING !

On Wednesday, the day some U.S. intelligence officials had said a Russian invasion was likely to occur, Ukrainians rallied across the country in a display of solidarity and defiance in morning ceremonies. A cyberattack rattled the country the previous day, targeting the Ministry of Defense and two of the biggest banks, temporarily disrupting payments and showing zero balances on accounts.

And the band played WALTZING MATILDA

1...
A very hunger travelling worker (swagman) is resting under a shady eucalyptus tree (coolibah) by the banks of a watering-hole (billabong). He has lit a fire and is making himself some tea in a tin can (billy) that he is using as a kettle. While he is waiting for his tea to boil, he is singing a phrase that asks, " who will keep me company—who will be my friend?"

2nd Verse
While there, he notices a sheep (jumbuck) wandering down to the watering-hole for a drink. The swagman is starving, so he catches the sheep, kills it, eats what he can, and stows the rest in his backpack (tucker bag).

3rd Verse
Unfortunately for the swagman, the wealthy landowner (squatter) comes to the water-hole. He is mounted on his expensive horse (thoroughbred) and is accompanied by three policemen (troopers). They catch the swagman red-handed with the remains of the sheep in his backpack and try to arrest him for killing the sheep.

4th Verse
Preferring death over imprisonment for his crime, the swagman jumps into a water-hole and commits suicide. Ever since that day, his ghost still haunts the waterhole and can be heard singing. "Who'll come a-waltzing, Matilda, with me".

and on it goes,,

stupidty reigns supreme !
the gnome

Another All-Time Media Faceplant !!?
After the Biden administration and the press wrongly predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 16th, they kept compounding the error in spectacular fashion..and why not...havent they anything better to do?

“It was a joke, you idiots.”

If cluelessness, can be art? or fart??, American journalists unveiled their Sistine Chapel this week, in a remarkable collection of misreports and hack stenography surrounding a predicted invasion of Ukraine.

The mess began last Friday, February 11th, when National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan gave an address warning American citizens to evacuate Ukraine. “If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality,” he said. “I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information,” he added, before doing just that: “I do want to be clear: It could begin during the Olympics,” i.e. before the Beijing games end on February 20th.

Sigh. apprehension...

The stupidity and the mess (by design) is horendous.

good night
god bless gold andthe inherent stability in a sea of extreme turbulence, extraordinary contrived stupidity and profound strength...

the gnome

Who would you believe, when and why, especially when the clowns are in town ...

Russia is continuing its military buildup around Ukraine, Western officials said, even as Moscow announced it had begun drawing down some troops and released footage of tanks and armored personnel carriers departing Crimea.

On Wednesday, the day some U.S. intelligence officials had said a Russian invasion was likely to occur, Ukrainians rallied across the country in a display of solidarity and defiance in morning ceremonies. A cyberattack rattled the country the previous day, targeting the Ministry of Defense and two of the biggest banks, temporarily disrupting payments and showing zero balances on accounts.

And the lunatics attacked the cleptocracy and the thieves robbed the robbers. ...

Hard to capture the stupidity which is professed as leadership by the learned? lunatics

best

then gnome

It has forever been an issue as to whether to have a large standinng army or not. If you do, then how do you justify the massive costs. If you don't, then you will lose the war (of course)?

Wars with guns and bombs are one way of fighting. Then you can have smart bombs, which still kill civilians. And you can be smarter in not letting the media count the dead civilians

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces websites and online services of two state-owned banks were disrupted by likely denial-of-service attacks on Tuesday, government and bank officials said. Then there are other ways of fightng these days

Forex,
Hacks,
embargoes
etc

Security experts say it's too early to attribute the latest hacking incidents to a particular actor. U.S. officials offered support to counterparts in Ukraine, for the investigation and response... as you would expect.

Digital disruptions in the banking sector could be especially damaging if they jump over Ukraine's borders (any border?) to affect financial firms elsewhere. Some U.S. banks have been running through contingency plans to prepare for Russia-linked incidents.

and so the circus goes on, and lets hope its more entertaining than a relaity ...

sad world, so stupid

the gnome

Thanks Mr T.

I think the pandemic has provided a great opportunity to re-assess a lot of aspects of finance, economics, politcs and the role of heath professionals.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

One of the conclusions has caused great concern in Australia

“Studies looking at specific NPIs (lockdown vs. no lockdown, facemasks, closing non-essential businesses, border closures, school closures, and limiting gatherings) also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality. However, closing non-essential businesses seems to have had some effect (reducing COVID-19 mortality by 10.6%), which is likely to be related to the CLOSURE OF BARS (!!!).”

The city of Melbourne is considering a class action about their being locked in for 264 days
"Overall, our meta-analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had a large, significant effect on
mortality rates. Studies examining the relationship between lockdown strictness (based on the
OxCGRT stringency index) find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States only
reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% compared to a COVID-19 policy based solely on
recommendations. Shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs) were also ineffective. They only reduced
COVID-19 mortality by 2.9%"
Some wasted opportunities?

Lets not lose the opportunity. Lots to change
the gnome

Here is another take on the stupidity of the markets and the money men...from Ray D

It seems to me that people who received a lot of money and credit and felt richer, central bankers and central government officials who created a lot of money and credit and said that it wouldn’t create a lot of inflation, and people who believed what these officials said would all do well to review the lessons from history.

More specifically, this time around (i.e., since early April 2020) central banks (most importantly the Fed) and central governments (most importantly the US government) gave people, organizations, and state and local governments a huge amount of money and credit, and now most everyone is surprised that there is a lot of inflation.

What is wrong with these people’s thinking? Where is the understanding of history and the common sense about the quantity of money and credit and the amount of inflation?

Indeed whats is wrong with these people?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/where-we-big-cycle-money-credit-debt-economic-activity-ray-dalio/

If you dont believe Ray in 2022 try 1852, the EXTRAORDINARY POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE Madness of Crowds.

Part of the human condition. The trouble is with the people who read the true history and recognise the madness and delusions for what they are worth ...

"This time it won't end in tears" etc "Things always go up" "Bubbles dont burst"

the gnome

interesting call wildtiger. The USD money supply expands without limits. It floats on trust, which must surely be in short supply. If you think trust is well founded read on, and watch the disgraceful revelations now hitting the street in the US

The latest from the US about their former leaders ...

The 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign’s bogus Steele dossier of allegations against Donald Trump deserves its infamy in the annals of political abuses. But if a Friday filing by Justice Department special counsel John Durham is accurate, the creation of yet another Clinton-backed bundle of deceptions was no less appalling.

To sum up the special counsel’s argument in this case, an appalling abuse of private and public resources to gather dirt on Donald Trump did not turn up any dirt. So the alleged perpetrators just pretended they had found something significant and tried to persuade federal agencies that Mr. Trump had disturbing connections to Russians. Mr. Sussmann maintains that he is not guilty and deserves the presumption of innocence just like everybody else.

As for the political campaign that was paying the bills, was there anything that Hillary Clinton would not do to her 2016 opponent?
More at ...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-other-dossier-11644852226?mod=trending_now_opn_4

You trust the US Govt? Many wouldn't. Good luck
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/01/what-is-nato-treaty-article-five-russia-ukraine/
the gnome