Member Info for goldgnome

SJ,

No not rocket science at all. The overshoots and undershoots are part of a traders day, week or month.
The sad thing at the moment is that the under and overshoots are being created by those (central @bankers) that are paid handsomely to engineer things such that these phenomena do not occur (or are minimised)! These are then seized upon and exagerated by the $/word journalists and self described Quants and Savvies, and the swings and round abouts then impact the VIX, which the algorithms feed off, and the storm brews and swings get wilder.

Just recognise the pattern and plan your day, week, month eh?

God gold, it will haveits day again ... some things are hard to hold down for long
Gold acts more like a currency than a commodity, BUT EITHER WILL DO?. It generally has a negative correlation with the US dollar. When the US dollar is strong, the price of gold decreases but when the US dollar is weak, gold strengthens. The gold price is currently trading at US$1,286.40 per ounce.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-vs-gold-comparison-last-ten-years
After all these years, gold is still very much apart of our everyday lives. We may wear it, invest in it or prospect for it. There are no substitutes. Gold is gold.
best
the gnome

It is interesting to contemplate how they get away with it, year after year, election after election. It does suggest democracy, as practicised is a broken model, and I don't believe there is not a better model. Afterall, there is a constant invention of disrutive smart businesses which give rise to far more efficient and effective ways of doing businesses (see SMART BUSINESS, by Ming Zeng). Why cant the modern generation invent SMART GOVERNMENT, as simply repeating what has failed in the past and is failing again, does suggest something is wrong.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/25100650.pdf

There is work afoot
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3465061
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358904803_Building_a_Super_Smart_Nation_Scenario_Analysis_and_Framework_of_Essential_Stakeholders_Characteristics_Pillars_and_Challenges

the gnome

Having spent a week of 6 on Wall St, the phrase "bubble machine" is apt.
May 12, 2022, just over fourteen years after the collapse of Bear Stearns, the New York Times announced another crash. In a story entitled, “Cryptocurrencies Melt Down in a ‘Perfect Storm’ of Fear and Panic,” the lede read:
A steep sell-off that gained momentum this week starkly illustrated the risks of the experimental and unregulated digital currencies.

The story told of a mass investor flight from cryptocurrency markets, which has since caused an astonishing $700 billion in losses. There were several key triggering events, including the collapse of a “stablecoin” product called TerraUSD. A stablecoin is a type of digital currency that’s usually pegged to the value of a “stable” reserve asset like a dollar. They are often used to enter and exit trades for other cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin.
In theory, stablecoins work, if they’re backed by real assets and by guarantees that hog-tie the customer to their money in adverse conditions. Part of the idea behind a stablecoin is to be the calmer end of the volatile crypto experience. As Bloomberg put it, stablecoins can be a “safe haven” for investors, who can keep their holdings “protected from wild swings in the crypto market” without need to “convert their holdings into traditional money.” But the implosion of TerraUSD put a big early dent in the “safe haven” description.
That wasn’t the only factor. Just days after TerraUSD lost its “peg” and started its freefall in early May, financial observers found an eyebrow-raising passage in the already-disappointing quarterly 10-K report of a crypto market leader, Coinbase. In addition to reporting a $430 million loss and a 19% drop in users, the company stated:
In the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors.
Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency trading platform in the United States. When a customer stores cryptocurrency in a Coinbase wallet, those funds in theory can only be accessed with a cryptography-protected key, making it, again in theory, the unique property of the customer.
and so on, and so forth
nothing will stop the MIGHTY BUBBLE MACHINE...
“It’s 2008 on crack.”...

THE GNOME

When all else fails, you call on the 1922 committee to clean up the mess. The who, they ask?

The 1922 Committee, also known as "the 22", is a committee of all backbench Conservative MPs that meets weekly when the Commons is sitting. Its chair, usually a senior MP, is elected by committee members and has considerable influence within the Parliamentary Party.

Despite its name, the 1922 Committee was actually set up in April 1923 following an initiative by new Conservative MPs elected at the 1922 General Election to facilitate cooperation within the party.

It seems like everyone knows what the mess is about, but just how long has it been going on? I guess when they clean up the mess in the UK they can clean up the messes in the southern colonies...LOL

enjoying the weekend, my footy team won!

the gnome

Well if gold is correlated with uncertainty, then political uncerainty and rudderless leadership is here. Boris has bonked himself too much and been bonked. Biden is lost in a haze of his own making while democracy in the US unravels ...

First, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said he would block a bipartisan bill aimed at enhancing the U.S.’ ability to compete with China unless Democrats abandon a separate prescription drug, climate and tax bill.

Second, the Supreme Court said the Environmental Protection Agency couldn’t enact sweeping rules covering greenhouse gas emissions, a decision likely to circumscribe federal authority in a range of fields.

Third, news emerged that President Biden might be reaching a decision to waive some of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China.

Fourth, Donald will be back as President!?

And we have the Russian-Nato fiasco in Ukraine, and a sad shooting in Japan. A glut of unsold homes in Sydney and Melbourne forcing sellers to discount their asking prices and creating bargains for buyers willing to take the risk of prices falling further, as the largest housing market correction in at least 40 years accelerates.

Crypto is quaking and shaking, and people know not where to go.

China is loosening up and its share market is charging ahead,

The changing of the guard is surely happening, and the talking heads are talking their respective heads off, and creating more uncertainty

Thanks goodness for gold..."we find a positive and strong relationship between gold returns and the uncertainty composite indicator when the uncertainty attains its highest level and under normal gold market scenario. This suggests that holding a diversified portfolio composed of gold could help protecting against exposure to uncertain risks."
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1806/1806.07623.pdf

best of luck to us all

enjoy your weekend, and get the long game sorted out.
the gnome

For those interested in the structural controls and mineralised potential of the underground at Sukari, the below provides a useful insight. In particular figures, 2A,B and C
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226196044_The_Sukari_Gold_Mine_Eastern_Desert-Egypt_structural_setting_mineralogy_and_fluid_inclusion_study/link/09e41507ef47d97b4a000000/download

There is room for considerable upside in the underground mineralisation, in terms of tonnes and grade, in my humble opinion.

the gnome.

There are 4 things that spring to mind with those grades (ALL POSITIVE! THAT MAKES MY MOUTH WATER MORE!!).

1. Comparison with the undergrpund Fosterville Gold Mine (in Oz), held by Kirkland Lake (and whoever took them over) where they got very excited (justifiable) by 2.6 m @200 gpt Au. Fosterville limped along for more than 100 years as a small time gouger show, until they discovered the mother lode/s. It then became the lowest cost underground mine in Australia if not the world with a AISC of about US$300 per ounce. Worth a read https://www.amcconsultants.com/experience/kirkland-lake-fosterville-gold-mine patience can be a virtue, but knowing how LARGE bonanza grade gold mines get found and developed is very useful.

2. Optionalities increase. Basically with those grades and thicknesses one gets a lof optionality as how to mine, how to mix (etc). Optionality is one key to managing a profitable mine. Grade of course is another as is margin.

3. The variation of thickness and high grade suggests that there is more than just a single high grade vein. Given the geology, rheologies and structure I would expect there to be vein arrays, crush zones and breccia zones...this is something to watch for very carefully, and could make a significant upgrade to the mining operation.

4. With such high grades and visible gold, they need to be evry dilligent about their assaying method, as they could be UNDER REPORTING, as has been noted in a number of high grade gold mines in the last few years...

"" “The correction to the intercept in hole UDH4051 is significant as, at 207 g/t over 2.6 m (original 51.7 g/t Au over 2.6 m ) , it is extremely high-grade and is located 500 m away from our deepest Mineral Reserves in Lower Phoenix. With the very high concentrations of gold we get in the quartz with VG mineralization at Fosterville, the revised intercept provides increasing evidence that there will be additional high-grade lenses that we can identify as we drill to extend the deposit down-plunge from current Mineral Reserves.” The error in the initial report was identified during a subsequent review of the sample batch, which was assayed using an Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS) instrument to measure gold in solutions. The analytical method required solutions for extremely high-grade gold samples to be diluted, and dilution calculations applied to the AAS readings to return the gold assay. On Site Laboratory Services identified that a transcription error had occurred, and that a dilution calculation had not been applied to two results in their initial report.""

That was a 400% UNDER REPORTING ! SO THERE COULD BE A LOT MORE THERE THAN THEY KNOW.
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/kla/kirkland-lake-gold-ltd/news/kirkland-lake-gold-updates-on-fosterville-exploration-2626361.html

FORTUNE FAVORS THE BRAVE

best
the gnome

The other good bit of news for the die hards, is dear ol' Boris is going to fall on his sword! LOL. He must have heard that if he didn't resign, he would get some 24 hours of counselling from Nick Kyrgios. Never a dull day?

good luck to us all

the gnome.

PaulM

There is a lot to like about the report, including the below, excuse my enthusiasm, but the underground expansion looks to be shaping up comfortably.

HIGHLIGHTS

· Sukari underground drilling. The underground exploration programme at Sukari continued to support our strategy of delineating the full potential of the underground orebody to deliver both mine life extension and operational expansion. Drilling was completed across all areas of the underground, including at Horus Deeps where drilling intersected the highest-grade mineralisation in that zone to date. Horus Deeps remains open to the north, south and down dip and represents the long-term future of the operation. Notable drill results include:

· Horus Deeps - 54m at 15.1g/t Au, including 3.8m at 161g/t Au and 2.15m at 44.84g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!

· Ptah - 23m at 7.2g/t Au, including 2m at 14.29g/t Au and 6m at 17.72g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!

· Amun - 17m at 9.6g/t Au, including 1m at 136g/t Au

· Amun - 8.5m at 7.6g/t Au, including 1m at 52.8g/t Au
obviously a lot of high grade, but interesitng to see how they want to mine this ...

· Sukari Bonanza zones. The Bast area between Ptah and Amun continues to return high grade underground zones of Bonanza style mineralisation. Drilling in this area, demonstrates a consistent geological host within 100m of existing infrastructure which could improve underground operational flexibility through the development of a new high-grade mining area in the near-term. Drilling highlights include:

· 10m at 64g/t Au, including 2m at 199g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!

· 4.5m at 267g/t Au, including 4m at 301.29g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!

· 17m at 12.5g/t Au, including 2.5m at 6.84g/t Au and 4m at 47.09g/t Au

· Sukari surface exploration. An exploration programme has identified multiple shallow open pit gold satellite targets within the mining concession which have the potential to supplement Sukari mill feed, in the short to medium term, improving operational flexibility. Initial drill results from two of the newly identified areas include:

· Wadi Alam - 22m at 2.9g/t Au from 41m A NICE START

· V Shear East 10m at 2.9g/t Au from 41m DITTO

AND I WILL TAKE A PUNT ON DOROPO STARTING AT 200K OUNCES PER ANNUM IN 2024, WHICH WILL RAISE CEY PRODUCTION, TO 700K OUNCES PA, AND THEN THEY HAVE ABC COMING DOWN THE BACK STRAITS.

LOOKS A VERY ATTRACTIVE GROWTH PROFILE.

best
the gnome

One does pause to wonder why the US seems so focussed on yet another regime change when they have an unenviable record of picking the wrong horse, and creating a worse sitauation than that that existed before. Some, of course never learn.

And now we see yet another well worn path of failure, with the sanctions, which are adding to the pandemonium created by the pandemic. Who will suffer the most, and who will benefit?

Sanctions on Russian gold will have even less impact on Putin's war effort. A little like the LBMA "sanctions" on artisinal gold sourced from conflict zones or alike, which simply means the gold goes to willing buyers/processers by another route, without the blink of an eye.

"Compared to oil and gas, [gold] is their third largest or one of the largest export items. I don't think it's that consequential, just like with oil and gas. I imagine that Russia will find another home for it," ..... Pointing out that Russia has in fact been adding to its own gold reserves.

However, long-term, investors can expect an erosion of the dollar's strength. Weaponizing the U.S. dollar is going to damage its status in the long-term as the sole global reserve currency. Damage that is long overdue in my humble opinion. At best an exhorbitant legacy and privilege of years well and truly past.

In gold I trust long term, a bit like the Central Banks,

the gold gnome

In the month of May central banks around the world added a net 35t to global gold reserves. This represents the second consecutive month of net increases after a drop in March. This year the central banks of Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and India have been the main buyers but this month Germany was a net seller.

Purchases were dominated by the same central banks as in April. Turkey (13t), Uzbekistan (9t), Kazakhstan (6t), and India (4t) all added to their gold reserves once again in May, accounting for most of the month’s buying. In the Middle East, Qatar added 5t to its gold reserves in May, taking total gold reserves back to 56.7t, the same level as the start of 2022. Germany was the only notable seller during the month, reducing its gold reserves by 2t, likely for its longstanding coin-minting program.

Last week, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) also announced it had bought around 34 tonnes in June, making its total gold reserves to just over 130 tonnes. This is the first significant gold purchase from the CBI since September 2018 (6.5t).

Gold has recently moved through a support zone of $1787.03/oz as greenback strength persisted. The main consolidation low stands at $1676.01/oz. There is another support area at $1750.78/oz that could help stem the losses but the price action is looking pretty weak at the moment.

I would doubt Mr Bristow would know more about the controls on gold mineralisation or prospectivity of Egypt, by employing people of this knowledge and experience!

CEY does need to be every considered about protecting its position in Egypt, without doubt. Its competitive position can be lost very quickly. It needs to protect its Intellectual property!

the gnome

I often think there must be a better way than Western style democracy for West Africans.

You tend to get incompetent corrupt govts elected which after a few years, everyone gets p$seed off with, protests start politey and then get rough, which gets nowhere and then a coup de'tat..rinse and repeat

the gnome

U.S. stock futures drifted lower at the start of the second half of the year, with investors bracing for more volatility amid heightened inflation and expected interest-rate increases.

Futures for the S&P 500 shed 0.6% Friday. The broad index closed out Thursday lower, heaping on additional losses to mark the worst first half of the year since 1970. Contracts for the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 retreated 0.7% and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%.

In premarket trading, shares of Kohl’s fell 16% after the retailer said Friday that takeover talks with Franchise Group ended without a deal. Memory-chip maker Micron Technology shares fell 4.7% premarket after the company issued a subdued revenue outlook, spooking investors even as it reported a strong rise in earnings for its latest quarter.

Investors remain focused on persistent inflation that has forced central banks to reverse years of easy-money policies and accelerate interest-rate increases. That change in position has bolstered fears of slowing growth that could lead to a recession. Central bank officials globally have signaled that they are more concerned about taming inflation than an economic slowdown. ...bets on a recession

best
the gnome

Gold’s slide has hit shares of mining companies. U.S.-listed shares of Barrick Gold Corp. fell 28% this quarter and Colorado-based Newmont Corp. slipped 25%. Both stocks noted the largest percentage decline since the quarter ended September 2015.

One factor that could help lift gold from its rut: Some investors worry the Fed’s tightening could tip the economy into recession, lowering bond yields and weakening the dollar. Fair bet, and the Fed has form in getting it wrong.

Many also still view gold as a way to protect portfolios against inflation and market swings heading into an uncertain second half.

“There’s a big conundrum right now of, ‘What are people supposed to do with their money?’” said Bill Herrmann, partner and co-founder at Wilshire Phoenix. He expects gold’s appeal as a haven to propel it toward $2,000 by year-end.

Housing is set to sink in Oz, 20-40%?

The narratives on the future are all over the shop. Undoubtedly someones prediction will be right, but who and when.

Best not to chase the Lemmings, cool head,
the gnome

Mr Powell told a European Central Bank conference in Portugal on Wednesday that while financial markets had understood the Fed’s determination to quash inflation, he was “racing against the clock” to keep business and household expectations from becoming unmoored.

“The clock is kind of running LOW on how long will you remain in a low-inflation regime,” he said.

But he vowed to nip the potential disanchoring of inflation expectations in the bud, saying “we will prevent that from happening”. The Fed would restore price stability even at the risk of raising interest rates TOO HIGH, he said.

“Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly, there is a risk. But I wouldn’t agree that it’s the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability,” he said.

WELL HE HAS MADE SO MANY MISTAKES NOW A FEW MORE WON'T MATTER. OVER SHOOT HERE, NO SHOOT WHEN YOU NEED ONE THERE, AND SO ON.

NO CONFIDENCE

the gnome

Thanks Cowichan

There is a tendency for Mining Companies to be marked on resources, AISC, margins, perf against budget etc. by the borkers, ,and hence this is what they talk about.

They mumble something about organic growth, which they must regard as "mushroom organic"..keep it in the dark (from investors), feed it this and that etc....

I would prefer and get a lot more comfort about the "organic growth path" becoming much more transparent to investors, and so we know what is going on, what is getting prioritised, what is being achieved (etc)

the gnome

Given where we are in the global central bank rate hiking cycle, the team believes a global recession still won't hit until the first half of calendar 2023. With this as a base case, the team says now is the time to start considering a defensive portfolio.

Here are the fast stats for sectors that work best in an "early contraction" phase (i.e. the one we are about to enter if they are right):

Staples and utilities outperformed 13 of 15 times;
Health and Telecom outperformed 12 of 15 times;
Gold outperformed in 5 of 8 cases and has the second-highest average return.
At the other extreme:

Industrials have never outperformed;
Diversified financials and basic materials outperformed in just 2 of 15 cases.
US real estate tends to underperform (rising rates are generally not great for REITs)

Everyone comfortable for the ride?

the gnome

A little light reading for you Mr T. The US stands for one thing. The USA, there is no other way. Whether its the legal side, the financial cartels, the corporate cartels..... or just how sanctions work...Oliver North?

“They are making laws, what we say as extraterritorial, that means they can touch every company and every employee in the world as long as they are a small link to the U.S. market.”

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50358483-the-american-trap#other_reviews

The American Trap,” is a work by Frédéric Pierucci, a former executive of French energy and transport giant Alstom who spent two years in a U.S. prison for his role in a bribery scandal.Pierucci’s book opens with his arrest upon his arrival in New York in April 2013 on accusations of financial crimes by the Justice Department under the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The French executive eventually pleaded guilty to his role in a worldwide bribery scandal, and his company agreed to pay $772 million in fines....“cautionary tale for globe-trotting executives at multinational companies increasingly facing the threat of litigation when they are allegedly on the wrong side of U.S. law.”

Since publishing in China on May 1, the Chinese-language version of the book has topped the “new book” list on Dangdang, a popular Chinese e-commerce site,

Sanctions? when and if convenient. ...

and so on

the gnome

The BOD of CEY should have "retired" Pardey a long time before the damage was done. Be very interesting to review how he was chosen int he first place ... key position criteria, skills experience needed etc,

Relevant committee?

NOMINATION COMMITTEE MANDATE
The committee is responsible for reviewing the Board’s succession plans and helps to fill vacancies among the senior management team by looking at the necessary and desirable competencies, skills, knowledge and experience of Directors. It helps the Board by making recommendations on the appointments of committees and as to the structure, size and composition of the Board and its committees. It makes recommendations to the Board for the appointment and re-election of Directors and considers the requirements for Board diversity (including gender and ethnic diversity).
https://www.centamin.com/media/2522/cey-nomination-committee-charter-feb2022.pdf

CURRENT MEMBERS:
Jim Rutherford (Chair)
Dr Sally Eyre
Mark Bankes

An econmist, lawyer and a Geo...