Member Info for goldgnome

World Bank Report: Alarming to say the least, and thats the positive side! If you have not read it, I suggest you do so. There are some unsual things happening in synch, and the Central Banks are reacting to advice from the World Bank, and that advice, tempered with positive language, is alarming.

"Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades—a trend that is likely to continue well into next year, according to the report. Yet the currently expected trajectory of interest-rate increases and other policy actions may not be sufficient to bring global inflation back down to levels seen before the pandemic. Investors expect central banks to raise global monetary-policy rates to almost 4 percent through 2023—an increase of more than 2 percentage points over their 2021 average.

Unless supply disruptions and labor-market pressures subside, those interest-rate increases could leave the global core inflation rate (excluding energy) at about 5 percent in 2023—nearly double the five-year average before the pandemic, the study finds. "

It goes on to suggest developing countries are going to do it very tough, and so on....

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/38019/Global-Recession.pdf

June 07, 2022—Compounding the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. This raises the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle- and low-income economies alike.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/06/07/stagflation-risk-rises-amid-sharp-slowdown-in-growth-energy-markets

Bunker down all....trouble is coming, ...fast

best

the gnome

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday downgraded its economic outlook for the US and warned of consistently high inflation and a worsening job market as raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for a third straight time.Fed chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers were “strongly committed” to curbing inflation as they pushed the benchmark interest rate to a target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent, their highest point since 2008 and up from near zero at the start of this year.FULL SPEED AHEAD, THEN SLAM THE BRAKES ON. IF YOU DROVE YOUR CAR LIKE THIS YOU WOULD BE ARRESTED?Despite all of the endless waffle about jobs, we now see worsening job markets. I cant pick up the discussion about productivity. Like wise, the discussion about the marveloous industries that lead no where and waste peoples times.The Fed slashed its growth forecast to 0.2 per cent this year from a June projection of 1.7 per cent. The central bank next year expects a weak rebound to 1.2 per cent, again lower than its June forecast of 1.7 per cent. For 2024, it forecasts growth of 1.7 per cent, down from an earlier estimate of 1.9 per cent.Inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in June, as measured by the 12-month change in the US consumer price index. But it has failed to come down as quickly as Fed officials had hoped (dont like to use the word predicted, as this is something that has been abused before??) . In August, it was still 8.3 per cent.The Fed action is taking place against the backdrop of tightening by other central banks to confront price pressures which have spiked around the globe. Collectively, about 90 (surprised as they all follow the leader?!) have raised interest rates this year, and half of them have hiked by at least 75 basis points in one shot.We have Putin not threatening to employ nuclear, and mobilises 300k reservists, and a bleak winter in Europe with many businesses either shutting or running sub-optimally due to energy costs.Throw in "we will start a war if anything happens to Taiwan" and we have some of the most ridiculous positions being taken...Hard not to see some dire times ahead.Bunker down allbest the gnome

America has a national security problem, and ... a few others. Its health industry is a mess, 17% of GDP spent on health to deliver a health system that is ranked below Mexico and alike. Singapore spends 4% of GDP and delivers superior health outcmes that even attract such persons as Robert Magabe,,,and so on....LOL

The biggest threat to the USA is right at home: the Pentagon’s stranglehold on our national budget, (been going on for a few decades now!) alongside the woefully inadequate investments in addressing urgent, nonmilitary problems like climate change, pandemics, and racial and economic injustice...and we wont mention a health care system which does not work well....

Nowhere are these misplaced priorities more evident than in Congress, where the House and Senate routinely add tens of billions of dollars to the Pentagon budget beyond what the department even asks for (!!!???), in order to shovel funds to weapons contractors based in their states and districts. This year Congress is poised to push the budget to at least $850 billion. This is far higher than spending at the peak of the Korean or Vietnam Wars or the height of the Cold War, and there is no doubt more to come, as the Ukraine needs more weapons, more security systems, more training and so on and so forth. Gimme a break. Who starts what war and why and how benefits...and unfrotunately...who loses.

This all contributes to the strength of the US$...and who benefits? How? LOL

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the Gnome

The blockchain technology I am most taken by stems from Etherium and Binance.

This has got some semblance of having very sound foundations, both technical and social. I think it is potentially a far better construct than the US$ and their poorly engineered financial system, and has some sense of stakeholder communities, and other social concepts (I am not a socialist) that the US$ lacks totally. The US$ is really driven by elites for the elites, etc I guess their own defintion of "democracy" (democracy is certainly something they do not have in the USA despite the rhetoric.)

The Crypto space is the wild west, at best, but the base technology is what is really the valauble contribution.

So I am a big believer in Blockchain, technology. There will be very reputable organisations that do have and exhibit social repsonsibility, and there are a few now. Don't waste time with the wild west profiteers, see through this greed and stupidity. They feed into other speculators who follow greed and stupiditiy, and they end up covered in greed and mired in stupidity.

Nothing to see here, been going on for Millenia I suspect.

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the Gnome

Thats a great idea Cowichan! However with a project that is obviously marginal, a 3% royalty would kill it. I think there is a govt royalty already. I would go for a 1-1.5% NSR, and if the project did get going, then this could be on sold, for $10-30m, depending on a few factors.

Good thinking though! Hope they have done some thinking like this ...

best
the Gnome

NOT ON TOPIC, BUT PERHAPS OF INTEREST

One of the great myths about our current industries of innovation is the use and abuse of gamification. Hardly what one would associate with productivity increase, but rather something opposite. Of course lots of debate,

How games are being harnessed as instruments of exploitation—and what we can do about it

"Warehouse workers pack boxes while a virtual dragon races across their screen. If they beat their colleagues, they get an award. If not, they can be fired. Uber presents exhausted drivers with challenges to keep them driving. China scores its citizens so they behave well, and games with in-app purchases use achievements to empty your wallet.

Points, badges, and leaderboards are creeping into every aspect of modern life. In You’ve Been Played, game designer Adrian Hon delivers a blistering takedown of how corporations, schools, and governments use games and gamification as tools for profit and coercion. These are games that we often have no choice but to play, where losing has heavy penalties. You’ve Been Played is a scathing indictment of a tech-driven world that wants to convince us that misery is fun, and a call to arms for anyone who hopes to preserve their dignity and autonomy."
https://www.amazon.com.au/Youve-Been-Played-Corporations-Governments-ebook/

Cowichan

I think CEY have been actively trying to seek partners (it is deifntiely in their best interests to do so, and to do this quickly), as they have had a very large data room open for a long time, and I know several groups have had a good look at it, none offering much for the Project. The killer has been the metallurgy (requires an ultrafine grind, less than 10 micron?) and the strip ratio (very high), in short.

regards
the Gnome

Thanks Torna

Its the exhorbitant privilege of the US and the US$ that is causing a lot of issues, elst call these distortions. Right now, the US$ being the most secure "asset" (I certainly do not think this) in many investors mind, there is a run towards it, which is now over pricing the US$. This causes other asset classes to be devalued. In Australia our currency has fallen to a low of 0.67, and trending down, despite a mining boom, and despite a $50 improvement in our budget.
So the short answer on gold is it is undervalued. The USD is hugely overvalued, which is not int he US best interest, so I cannot see this as lasting.
The FED continues to amaze me with their irrational solutions to problems they largely create. When they do not create the problems, then the sloppy US Bank system and Wall Street greed obliges. The trouble is that these insto's create mayhem in the global market, which is not what should happen in a well engineered financial system.
I think well run gold mining companies (not too many of these mind you), and or well run royalty companies are of great interest.

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the gnome

Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500.

“Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30 per cent,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview this week. In “a real hard landing”, which he expects, it could fall 40 per cent.

So its not a bad bet to expect there will be some downside adjustment coing inthe near futire to shares which will mean Gold will ....

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the gnome

Thanks Cowichan

My read, is that the deposit is problematical in terms of commerciality, IF ONE ASSUMES YOU NEED TO PRODUCE X00,000 OUNCES PER ANNUM. For various reasons this is what most companies do.

So I can imagine that for Centamin and "most companies" this is the outcome, and hence they could not sell the Batie Project. It simply did not provide a ROI.

So rather than spend money on trying to flog a dead horse to no one who is interested (!?) they just gave up on further losses, and ceded to government

It one way of getting the project off of managment time, and of giving to the rightful priject owners.

So I m not dismayed that it has not turn out l am happy that the Doropo 5 m ounces has come out of the Ampellla investment

It could have been done better, but this is the mining industry, and it is not the smartest industry in the room.

CEY needs to focus, and I believe it is , and this is part of the focussing process, and yes, I have misgivings, but they must move on. Death by a 1,000 cuts is not exciting

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the gnome

Thanks Spoonington

It does look like another act of stupidity, by both sides. One would have hoped that they could have learnt from some of the stupid conflcits of the last 80 years, but the only thing we ever learn is they never learn.

Whoever thought they would benefit is an interesting question?

Oddly the US seems well positioned to gain the most, and lose the least. Their citizens dont get exposed to a shuddering cold winter, no exposure to low flying shrappnel, minimal exposure to any collateral risks like nuclear powerstataion malfunction and so on.

Not sure what Germany was thinkiing, nor any of the other Europoean countries for that matter.

Its great to be at the bus stop near the end of the world, watching from afar, wondering. Well not a lot of wondering, just happy to be geeting a ringside seat at the AFL grandfinal comining up fast !!! Go the Swans !!!

and of course, go GOLD !!!

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the Gnome

CowichN

I have it from good sources, that Batie has been given back to the govt of Burkina Faso, who would be the rightful owners, given Centamins failure to comply legal constratints and for the project to meet Centamin hurdles. Can't sit on the pot without peeing too long, as they say

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the Gnome

WANT A BIT OF FUN...LETS LOOK AT A RECENT BIT OF PRESS FROM A US FIN JOURNAL

Investors expected sticky inflation to lift gold prices this year. Instead, the opposite happened?????

The most actively traded gold contract is on pace to decline for six consecutive months, with a loss of 14% through that period so far. That is a significant drop for an asset that is supposed to be a haven and marks the longest losing streak since September 2018, when prices fell 9.9% over six months. (IT WOULD BE IF THE GOLD MARKET WAS A FAIR, FULLY TRANSPARENT AND FRICTIONLESS MARKET WHICH IT CLEARLY IS NOT. THIS HAS BEEN POINTED OUT FOR DECADES, BUT STILL STUPID COMMENTS REMAIN. SIMPLY IF YOUR ASERTION IS THAT THE GOLD MARKET IS FAIR, RATIONAL ETC, THEN WHAT IS THE IRREFUTABLE EVIDENCE OF THIS?)

NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP...LOL!!!

Gold is prized by investors for its usual stability during times of turmoil (GREAT, IF IT IS A FAIR, TRANSPARENT AND WELL REGULATED MARKET). Prices jumped near all-time highs earlier this year, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended markets for stocks and commodities (WHY?). In early March, gold settled at a 2022 high of $2,069.40 a troy ounce. Now, it is down 7.9% so far this year, on pace for its worst annual performance since 2015.

Stocks are trading lower than they were in early March. The war has dragged on and concerns about inflation have only intensified. But the haven metal has been stuck in a trading range of about $1,650 to $1,800 since June (WHY?). Gold recovered some on Friday, rising 0.4% to $1,683.50.

BLAH BLAH BLAH.

IF YOU HAVE A BRAIN, AND BASE YOUR LIFE AND DECISIONS ON RATIONAL ARGUMENT, ITS A HARD TASK TO UNDERSTAND THIS SORT OF RUBBISH. RUBBISH IT IS FORM MY HUMBLE VIEW

THE VALUE OF GOLD WILL LONG LAST THE PATHETIC VIEW OF SUCH ARTICLES, WRITTEN ON THE BASIS OF $X/WORD, JOURNALISM, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE WORD HAS ANY TRUTH, BUT RATHER THAT THE WORD SELLS PAPERS OR PEOPLES SUBSCRIPTION FEES (OR WASTES PEOPLES LIVES!)

MY APOLOGIES FOR MY DIGRESSIONS

OFF TO SCOTLAND SOON
THE GNOME

The US sanctions are most famous for negatvely impacting on the innocent people of the country being sanctioned.
It would suggest this is fair game from those in power, and who feed on Other Peoples Money
https://www.brookings.edu/research/economic-sanctions-too-much-of-a-bad-thing/

A bit like the debt (interest of which is) hoisted onto innocent billions in developing countries, by their "democratically elected governements", a debt that winds up in Minsterial bank accounts in Switzerland and he Treasure Islands.

As for the MIR affair, it is a bit like the Ukraine V Russia confrontation being a proxy for the ever green US v Russia confrontation, with the Ukraine being the (very) sad meat inthe sandwich.

All quite a stupid affair (s)

Dont worry, my medication will kick in soon, and all will be well!?

the gnome

Tornadotony

The exhorbitant privilege the US have in having their dollar "elected" as the global currency, is good for one country, and thats about it. Guess which one? ! Debt does not matter if it is all in your own currency, of which you can print as much as you like. All the rest of the world finds this very hard to do, and as such suffer much when they have high interest rates hoisted on them, which of course, favour the US. Funny about that? Hoisted on them, well lets have a look at our robust chaps at the Reserve Bank of Australia, which worship and follow every step taken by the US Fed...even if it does not make any sense to Australia? Independence?
The Fed have made one mistake after the other, which has resulted in overshoots, and undershoots, whih make a mad persons walk look sane. The negative effective interest rates were for too long, The Volker correction in the 1980's was an overkill. Greenspan was almost an incoherent Greenspin, but they worshipped his every word?

Powell scrapped his original address, according to two people who spoke to him, and instead delivered unusually brief remarks with a simple message—the Fed would accept a recession as the price of fighting inflation. Well reads like a careful piece of strategic analysis doesnt it?

The Fed has two mandates: full employment and stable prices; officials define the latter with a formal 2% inflation target (NOT A LOT OF SUBSTANCE IN THIS MIND YOU, NOT MORE THAN A THUMB SUCK). For most of the past two decades the Fed could focus on full employment because inflation seldom deviated much from 2%. Today, though, with inflation at 8.3%, the highest since Mr. Volcker’s tenure, Powell has concluded that, like Volcker, he must devote his attention to that problem, even if doing so takes a serious near-term toll on employment...OH WELL, THERE GOES 50% OF THE MANDATE IN A BLINK. AND THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT! We have wage rises, salary rises all on rapid display, almost at the same time as we have no evidence of productivty increases. In fact productivity declines are the order of the day. So how are the clowns going to contain the wages increase, which has stagnated for years, and is now needled by the inflationary pressures, which result in singificant portion from Fed previous over-stimulated stimuli for too long?
The clowns are doing so well.
Its a penalty these days if you have a brain,

the gnome

some other news ... interesting

Deposits at U.S. banks fell by a record $370 billion in the second quarter, the first decline since 2018.

Deposits fell to $19.563 trillion as of June 30, down from $19.932 trillion in March, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The outflow in the quarter isn’t a problem for banks, which are sitting on more deposits than they want. Deposits in the banking system usually stay relatively stable, but swelled by some $5 trillion in the past two years due to pandemic stimulus. Now, a series of Federal Reserve rate increases is taking some of that money out of the system, in part by decreasing demand for loans and increasing demand for government bonds.

2013
'15
'20
-0.50
-0.25
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
$1.50
trillion
When the Fed started increasing its benchmark rate this year, banks expected—and wanted—some customers to move their money to places offering higher interest payments, such as government bonds.

As recently as April, many analysts scoffed at the idea bank deposits could decline this year. But the Fed’s pace of rate increases has been faster than expected, and the effect on deposits is more pronounced.

the gnome

worth a look and listen, Charlie Munger ....
a brief history lesson on assets, debt, with a view to the future , by a 90 year old seasoned investor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5UCmsXpngA

we will need some luck

best

Sorry about the rushed wording (and numbering LOL), but things to ask
>What is the history of Sandstone Gold fields discoveries and mining in the last 50-60 years..do not rely on these guys to tell you, but you can google this sort of info relatively quickly and well
>How are they going to have more success than others ..any new technology, evidence of smarts, or is this another grid drill to you drop exercise.
>How are they trying to predict the existence of grade, continuity of mineralisation
>what are their claimed underground ounces, and how much reports to a minable reserve? People make some great claims in underground resources and kick the can down the road in terms of decalring a minable reserve. Be very careful. unless you are a speculator

My advice is mostly from a long term view..that is they are going to mine what they say they have.

its a tough market at the moment if you are a speculator, and my temptation as a speculator is to sit things out.

Quite happy to buy CEY on weakness events, which are primariliy due to short term fluctations of the gold price, as I know what fluctates up will fluctuate down, but longer term, gold has got to go higher.

There are more regulations coming through, as the regulators have a lot to clean up. I can t see a good argument for trusing the governments or central banks at the moment. Now we have the RBA coming out and saying they are going to keep hiking interest rates at infinitum to fight the inflation demons. It bears as much logic as the interest rates being essentially negative for the last 5 or 6 years, what a joke! In whose iterest was this? What was the real result of this?? From one extreme to another, quite ludicrous, and they get paid handsomely for their profound wisdom!

We have some real wage increase pressures here as a result, but productivty gains are zero to negative. So this does not compute. We will be run by Unions it seems and this is not good for the economy.

Hard to think recession is not staring us in the face

Q: Can Britain’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, fix this economic mess? The Bank of England? Anyone?

Max: To a degree, yes. The government is working on a large bailout package to cap the price of energy for businesses and homes. That could stave-off the immediate cost of living crunch and in the short term push down inflation, which is primarily driven by rising energy bills. That could make the predicted coming recession shallower and shorter. However the medium term is cloudier. The bailout combined with tax cuts the new government will implement could keep inflation running at a relatively high-rates. The Bank of England will likely have to continue to raise rates to stamp this down, subduing economic activity over the longer term.

good luck !

good luck !!!
the gnome

Good morning Rebess

Things I picked up on

1. Sizable convertible note sitting on them. I wold need to see the terms of this

2. Significant Resource base
22Mt @ 1.1g/t for 784.3koz Au
Open pit and underground
The style of mineralisation and grade may preclude underground mining, so might be a few "hopeful" ounces in the mix
3. Key future open pit production location
Currently largest open pit resource at Central Sandstone
Potentially opens up access to Two Mile Hill UG...Shillington 2.3Mt @ 1.2g/t Au for 86,500oz
Two Mile Hill 2.1Mt @ 1.1g/t Au for 71koz
Thats NOT A LOT OF OUNCES, and they are resource ounces, what is the strip ration, CONVERSION OF THESE MEAGRE OUNCES TO PROFITABLE OUNCES??!! gold ounces is a key question.
3. Key driver for Sandstone acquisition Big broad intersections
343.9m @ 1.29, 224.0m @ 1.48, 352.8m @ 1.5g/t,...BUT THIS IS DRILLED DOWNDIP !!!!.....
4. CLAIM TO HAVE LITTLE EXPLORATION IS INTERESTING GIVEN SANDSTONE HISTORY. "Gold mining at the Sandstone area stretches back over 100 years. In 1894 a prospector discovered gold about 20 km south of present-day Sandstone and, in 1903, gold was found within a few hundred meters of the town. From 1903 to 1916, 930,000 ounces of gold were mined in town." AND THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF WORK SINCE THEN.

I EXPECT THE LOW HANGING FRUIT HAS BEEN WELL AND TRULY PICKED OVER EXPLORATION WISE. THE EASY MINING OPEN PIT MIGHT BE BOTHERED BY STRIP RATIO AND BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF FREE CASH FLOW. THE CONVERTIBLE NOTE, POSSIBLY MEANS THEY HAVE HAD TO DIG DEEP TO GET COVERING INVESTMENT.

Just a couple of things to watch for. Happy to sit this one out

best
the gnome

Thanks Cowichan

If you looks craefully at high resolution imagery of Egypt int he gold arreas, you will see that there is a quite a lot of "small scale" gold minng going on, using large excavators. Small scale and artisinal miners do not tend to use these, as they lack capital. There seems to be an elemnet of "organisation" in the small scale mining, and I have hear rumour that the Egyptian military maybe involved..but it is 3rd hand info at best

"Small scale mining employs 100 million people world wide. It is poorly misunderstood in many countries by urban decision makers who view it as illegal activity. However, in some countries such as Morocco, Bolivia and South Africa and Sudan, it is actively encouraged by the government. In one region of South Africa, the government issued 400 permits allowing the employment of 3.7 million people from small scale mining with 30 million people depending on it from indirect activities. In 2015 Sudan, south of the border with Egypt reformed its mining laws to include artisanal mining, 198 small scale mining companies registered and employed 1 million people. The wisdom of developing law for artisanal mining has not crossed the border between Sudan and Egypt yet. Egypt has no government policy to encourage small scale mining, while it has a wealth of dispersed mineral resources in the Eastern Desert, and some in the Western Desert and on the shores of Lake Nasser. "

One small scale model being used elswewhere consists of building cooperatives for artisanal miners. Collectives or cooperatives of miners can be formed to encourage reinvestment in community development, construction of schools, hospitals. If this approach is adopted, it could lead to the employment of millions of Egyptians, while the conventional large scale approach will only employ few thousand people. The triangle between Marsa Alam, Quseir and Qena forms a good site to establish mining cooperatives...

So I am not sure what is happening in Egypt, but it is very misleading to infer small scale is in fact small scale, as the "employment" and environmental degradation is aything but small scale....and it is happening in Egypt

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the gnome