Member Info for goldgnome

Well Prince Harry's new book was outed in Spain (thank goodness it was not the French!? could be another war, LOL) and lots of other frivolities designed to enlighten us, happening.

I like the way Ray Dalio composites data and his views (not all), and for those interested in history of debt, and the lessons learned (he presents a good lot of graphics and info which allows one to draw their own conclusions)
https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/principles-for-navigating-big-debt-crises-by-ray-dalio.pdf
and for those who like a more condensed version in video form
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8

Free useful facts and information, what is the world coming to!!!

We do have to talk about Harry though?

best

the gnome

Well we are in interesting times

1. The USA is printing another trillion or 2 us$, and no one seems to care? BUthe chickens will come home to roost
2. The world is now out of love with Crypto
3. The Central Banks have yet again shown their ineptness
4. Political leaders are shown to be not up to the job, most have never had a job.
5. Uncertainty is now the order of the day
6. There are more disparate opinions than you can poke a stick at

The old reliable keeps shining and smiling at us, and I am happy to be in CEY

good luck to us all

The Gold Gnome

Perhaps I am missing something. To go into Egypt and set yourself up as a Mining Services Contractor, you would need to have a "contract in hand". To have a contract in hand in a competitive bid process is interesting when one has no experience in the country, but does have an inkling that there are lots of speed humps...

This could be problematical if you do not know the "Egyptian system", and lets just pick a case in point...or 2...

1. employing local people (for every expat I think you have to employ 9 local people - who have next to no skills in mining services when there has not been a mining industry in Egypt?). Just how is this factored into the work flow and management structure, the bid price, the project risk analysis etc...

2. getting equipment into and out of the countries. Knowing it is a problem is not solving the problem. How do you factor this into your bid price as it represents a potential significant risk

and so on and so forth. Working in Egypt, is a very Egyptian affair, and the Mining Industry really does not exist, apart from Centamin.

So to get a new Mining Services contractor into the country, one would have to work with the contractor, and try and tie up as much alignment as possible, knowing the alignment will not be perfect.

The risk must be dealt with somehow.

What have I missed...I have tried to be brief

regards
The Gnome

Pardey is now heading up Predictive Discovery since Jan 4 2022, and they are only down 33% in that time period.
Others of course are worse.

I our focus shold be fair and square on the future. Hold the board and mngt accountable, loud and clear. 24/7

good luck to us all...

the gnome

Thanks Dasut

This is what I implied, somewhat vaguely, in a previous post

When you start UP, you need to START UP very quickly, and the bankers look for risks which they can leverage off of'

Thanks Dasut

This is what I implied, somewhat vaguely, in a previous post

When you start UP, you need to START UP very quickly, and the bankers look for risks which they can leverage off of'

Thanks Mr T.

There are steadily more and more "partnerships" between drilling companies and exploration and mining companies. Be interesting to know how (and when?) the drill companies decide on which company to drill for equity in, and which not, and what the nature of the partnership is (do they get free options, etc?). It would not be open slather, as most Junior exploration companies are financially and/or intellecutally near bankrupt.
thanks
the Gnome
( and good to see you back Mr T!)

Not a bad sign for CEY and the goldies ....
https://www.ft.com/content/e0983ebb-bbe0-4d33-8517-e19fa06e1a77

regards
The Gnome

The only comment I can make is that getting equipment into and out of Egypt is a major headache, and delays are the norm, it is just a matter of how many months if not more than a year. There was and still is limited mining industry sevices in Egypt...this may have flavored decisions...

I wont agree with everything Lyn Alden says, but thse is defintely worth listenting to. Gold is in her portfolio going forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHLRvSBJNkc

Bobliz

Thanks for your comments, but the fundamantal issue, to me is whether all stakeholders really understand what is going on in the Ukraine. I battle, and have been burnt badly in trying to understand conficts in countries other than my own.

Generally what you find in the wars through the centuries, is that you have some unelected elete, who proffer some point of view which best benefits themselves, and they ram this through whtever media is available and then the poor buggers who have very few options, get dressed in a uniform (as they suggest), and go and shoot some other poor buggers, who similarly are dressed in a lovely unform (slightly different)..and a war is started...

The whole scenario is totally farcical,

Of course now we have mass media, with mass videos and a mass of hysterical opinions, and of course compelling mass opinions crowding the thought space, so that the less than fortunate persons, feel there is a need to don a uniform and go and shoot some other poor bugger, and so on and so forth ...

The "mass media" discussion on the causes, (needs etc) of the Ukraine war is less than intellectually stimulating and simply lacks veracity, authenticity, let alone balance. Simply a fraud.

Time for group hug?.....and certainly some sensible debate. !

Lets move onwards, and upwards !

the Gnome

Merry Xmas and a Happy, Lucky, Healthy and Prosperous New Year!

best
the Gnome

Thanks Sotolo

Do you wonder why a conservative investor goes out on a limb?

A very predictable world. Follow momentum

Happy with Gold, happier for CEY if it could communnicate properly

best
the Gnome

Gold to hit $US1900 in 2023 recession scenario

Global recession fears signal bumpy times ahead, but not for gold, according to ANZ Research, which boosted its year-end forecast for the precious metal as investors seek safe-haven assets and the US dollar rally fades.

It is a welcome relief for gold believers who suffered through a nail-biting year with rising interest rates and US dollar strength neutralising gold as an inflation hedge.

ANZ commodity analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said gold “appears to be at another pivot point” as inflationary pressures ease and central banks slow the pace of interest rate rises.

Analysts expect gold to outperform equities over the coming year as peak rates come into view and recession fears are realised, raising their end-of-year target price to US1900 an ounce from $US1700 an ounce.

“Tighter monetary policies amid high inflation are likely to slow economic growth in 2023. This backdrop is typically positive for gold,” Mr Hynes and Ms Kumari said.

“Although we expect the US Fed funds rate to peak at 5 per cent, a pause in rate hiking should turn market sentiment in favour of gold.”

The analysts expect to see gold retrace its gains since the November lows in the short term, amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and US dollar volatility.

They expect safe haven buying to raise prices as the US enters a recession in 2023, and Europe faces geopolitical risks and energy shortages.

“With inflation likely to remain high, the Fed is likely to keep rates high through 2023, raising the risk of weak economic growth next year,” they said.

Difficult year
“Gold prices tend to come under pressure ahead of recessions, but then outperform other markets (such as equities) during them ... as global growth slows through the second quarter amid elevated geopolitical risks, we expect safe haven buying to lift the gold price.”

This year has been a difficult year for gold. Rising geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should have been enough to keep the gold price at a record high of $US2050 an ounce as investors sought the safe haven asset.

CEY to be a beneficary ...

‘No easy way out’: Future Fund urges investing reset

Australia’s Future Fund says it has repositioned its $200 billion portfolio for a world of higher inflation and increased volatility, lifting its exposure to select commodities including GOLD (!!!!), and lowering its proportion to equities, as well as being wary of regulatory risk in areas such as utilities.

The Future Fund is also investing in real estate and infrastructure but only if the assets are sufficiently resilient to higher inflation, as it revealed that it now owns a 3 per cent stake in Sydney Airport.

Future Fund chief executive Raphael Arndt wants the portfolio to be able to withstand big swings. David Rowe

Dr Raphael Arndt, the chief executive of the sovereign wealth fund, said the paradigm of falling interest rates and central bank rescues had likely come to an end, which would challenge equities and bond valuations.

“Central banks are causing the problem, and if they didn’t do that we would have a bigger problem which is unsustainable inflation,” he told The Australian Financial Review.

“There’s no easy way out.”

Dr Arndt said the withdrawal of easy money via the Federal Reserve’s massive balance sheet reduction was a concept that was not “adequately understood” and represented an unknown factor for markets.

“If US Treasuries are going to pay 5 per cent interest, that’s going to suck liquidity from every corner of the world, and that creates volatility in every market, in every country in the world,” he said.

“As an investor that creates opportunities but you have to ensure your portfolio can withstand really big swings.”

The Future Fund has also warned Australian domiciled investors not to rely on foreign currency exposures to provide an insurance buffer in periods where risk assets are falling.

The Australian dollar typically falls in periods of global stress – increasing the value of global assets – but Dr Arndt said superannuation fund flows and potential commodities strength meant this relationship may not hold.

Dr Arndt’s comments came after the Future Fund published a paper titled The death of traditional portfolio construction, in which it outlined why it was shifting further away from the standard 60/40 weighting to stocks and bonds.

Dr Arndt said the changes to the investment landscape were “profound and sustained and fundamental” and encouraged investors of all sizes to rethink how they intended to protect and grow their wealth.

“Think about how you construct your portfolio because that whatever rules you thought existed in the world to help inform you when you went to finance school or business school may not exist any more.”

“Finance is not physics. The so-called rules are just observations of human behaviour in market over time.”

Oh well, GOLD IS IN THE PORTFOLIO, NOT BETTER BET THAN CENTAMIN
so lets all hope for a better year ahead ...

the gnome

Even groups who do not consider gold as a taboo, such as the Birifor, did not engage in gold mining but added gold they had found incidentally to house shrines.

If gold is sold at all, the proceeds from the sale are 'bitter money’ that must not be used for certain social or ritual payments. Among the Dagara, for instance, the cowries or cash that are exchanged for gold must under no circumstances constitute part of a bride price.

These beliefs explain why gold mining among the Lobi was and still is an activity which causes discomfort and is predominantly considered a task of post-menopausal women. Today, the arrival of gold diggers from other regions sometimes causes violent confrontations between them and the Lobi villagers. For instance, when gold was discovered in a sacred site near a Lobi village in the province of Noumbiel in the year 2000, a fight between villagers and gold diggers ensued that left ten gold diggers injured, two of them seriously. According to the villagers, they had twice asked the gold diggers to leave, because they feared that gold mining on sacred ground could bring death and drought. The fight occurred when the gold diggers returned for a third these requests.

and so on.

So when you think some new Geologists, withhis or her newly printed PhD, has some fabuous new ideas, spare a thught for 1,000 years of history, and for the thousands of west African women who go into the field with a baby on their back and a pan in their hand. These are the people who really find the gold in West Africa. But they get paid a pittance at best.

And the newly printed PhD Geologists give loquacious speeches to adroing masses in Conferences around the world.

It all seems a bit shallow to me.

the Gnome

If you read the history of gold mining in the Batie area, you may understand a lot more. In fact it appears Jihadists have been operating in the area for a few hundred years...

On gold mining in the Lobi Area....
Even today, some local populations (or some lineages among them) in the region around Dibougou and Gaoua are opposed to gold mining. One reason for this is that gold is considered as a ' supernatural resource’ Many people believe that gold is a living entity that moves and can suddenly appear or disappear, accompanied by strange lights or sounds. Gold can render a person blind, lame or crazy and can even kill. Some lineages are forbidden even to go near gold. If someone discovers gold in the bush or in the fields, one must first 'kill' it by sprinkling urine before it can be taken, but the corresponding body part will die to.

It is not the gold as such that brings bad luck, but rather the hills, trees or water spirits to whom the gold ‘belongs'. Just to give a few around Diebougou:

Gold is a bad thing. In the past, nobody hoped to come across gold. If a certain place was known to be rich in gold, nobody would dare build a house there. Ordinary Dagara people knew gold only by name, not in nature.

The Dagara did not know gold as such, because it did not concern them. If someone came across it and recognized it, he would not be allowed to touch it immediately. It was said that you had to sprinkle blood on it before taking it.

I know our ancestors were afraid of gold. They said that if someone built a house on a gold vein, his house would always attract sickness and grief. My own mother is very old. She told me that she was digging for gold during the colonial period. But she stressed that every year, my grandfather would purify her by way of killing a black chicken and a guinea-hen [on the ancestral shrine ]
For the Dyan, gold is wealth. Everybody likes wealth. So, all the Dyan would like gold. However, this is not the case ; there are Dyan families who have no right to touch gold.

For us, the Dyan, gold is a taboo. It is forbidden to touch gold. One does not even want the money made with gold. One should not pay for things life food with this kind of money. If somebody does, he will die.

Until today, this interdiction is valid. If one of our children goes to a mining camp [in order to work in the mine], he is finished; the ancestors will kill him.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231926111_Gold_mining_and_Jula1_influence_in_precolonial_southern_Burkina_Faso

One thing that seems forgotten in the Corporate world is they do not have sovereignty over the natural assets which is owned by the people of the country. They need to bide by the law of the land they operate in. In this case they were given to Dec 14 to negotiate and sign an amended agreement. They failed. What is the point of having a drop dead date in negotiations, when no one drops dead? I do not think this is a case of nationalisation, but rather corporate gamemanship and/or ineptitude or combination thereof, that went one step too far. I would like to see corporates be forced to obey the laws of the land. If they have not met expenditure committments, they lose the lease (etc) or whatever laws apply.

Rio:Guinea update...Rio Tinto, the second-largest Australian mining company, has faced a fresh setback in its push to develop the long-stalled Simandou iron ore project in Guinea after the West African nation’s government issued a stop-work order, July 2022

Guinea’s Mines Minister Moussa Magassouba wrote to Rio Tinto and China-backed SMB-Winning Consortium over the weekend, directing them to stop all work related to Simandou from 8am local time on Monday. The letter from the nation’s military rulers said the companies had shown an unacceptable “lack of willingness” to agree on a joint venture for funding the project’s transport infrastructure.

Rio's form: Rio-Tinto had been granted a mining project in 1997 over the Simandou Blocks 1,2,3 & 4, but did no
meaningful work on these assets. Therefore, in the summer of 2008, the Government of Guinea, required
Rio Tinto to retrocede half of its exploration perimeter – Blocks 1 & 2 - in compliance with the mining code
regulations.

In Nov. 2016, Rio Tinto admitted paying $10.5M (consulting fees LOL, nothing else to see here??) to Francois de Combret (Condé’s go-between) in order to secure its rights over Blocks 3 and 4 and improve its chances to recover Blocks 1 and 2. Rio Tinto fired senior employees who were involved in this payment as well as its head of legal and compliance. And what was the bit about Sam Walsh and his emails ...
https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/parties_publications/C3765/Claimants%27%20Reply%20%28Redacted%20per%20PO8%29/Fact%20Exhibits/C-0326.PDF

CEY have done an exceptional job of getting and maintaining a social license to operate, and paying a great return to the people of Egypt, in sharp contrast to the above. Something that should be recognised. It certainly is by me

Enjoy the test cricket, Australia to win....

best
the gnome

Logic left Australia decades ago...

Nothing rational about Australia. We take about 20-25 years to work through native title issues, with lawyers cleaning up big time at $850/hr (one must consider all views, and all outcomes, especially at this rate of pay) We are about to rule on retrospective compensation for access issues. Land access to do mineral exploration can delay starts, by years, and terms and codnitions of access are expensive and onerous.

To boot , Now the out-of-favour Gas sector is fighting for its future, with stark repercussions feared for the broader Australian economy. We elected a Labour party, better than the liberals but the bar is so low these days, its hardly a recomendation, who are proving once again they have no idea about how to run a modern economy. They have the little red book, which has provided a string of failed economies, but ... “Reckless free market intervention,” blasted the normally conservative ExxonMobil,

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, billions in taxes and royalties, and thousands of jobs the industry has provided over the past decades, its prospects could hardly be bleaker under the Labour government’s radical package of gas measures rushed through Parliament this week.
Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher says the “Soviet-style” gas measures will hurt customers. Matt Jelonek
ExxonMobil, Shell and Mitsui have invested billions of dollars to create one of the world’s largest and most reliable sources of LNG – in demand the world over to keep the lights on through the transition to low-carbon energy – and which also supply gas to east coast domestic buyers...

and on the fiasco goes, and where it stops no one knows least of all the government.

Burkina Faso is in survival mode. They are resource poor landlocked country, which has been abused by their previous Colonial partners (France - and isnt there a magificent history of Francafrique??!!). No government is stepping in to help them, so what do they do? What do they pay with when they have no money? The "jihadists" are getting paid by drug laundering and human trafficking, solid cash flow businesses. And what is really known about the Wagner Group. Are they better or worse than any other group in that "trade"?

What would you do...

the gnome