Member Info for goldgnome

Yes Mr T, lets just say there is a close and ongoing connection and collaboration....

Yes, Pardey had to retire, as I am sure the alternative would not have been inspring, and now the decks are clear lets see who they get. Can only be up.

Well as they say the fish rots from the head. I personally think it is a combinaiton of leadership at a MD or CEO level, which will then fire up/inspire and guide the managers. I have seen good managers flounder under medicore CEO's and MD's. The appointment of good CEO's and MD's comes from the board.

Arvi Parbo was one fothe great examples of leadership in the Mining Industry, and while he was the leader WMC did astounding things. When he left, the company went downhill and was eventually lunch for BHP (and there is another astonding set of "leaders" but thats for another day)....sigh

the gnome

I dont think the orebody and the machines are the problem perse.

But when you appoint a CEO whose main criteria seems to have been that he was around for along time on the site, knew the "system" and was a good loyal guy, into a leadership position, its a square peg into a round hole. Sound inspiring leadership in the mining industry is in short supply globally, so nonthing peculiar t CEY. You see rampant ego's, people promoted way beyond their competency, do gooders etc etc.

Pardeys perfromance is shown in the share price of CEY, eratic, spikes but overall down trend. Need professional management and inspiring leadership.

the gnome.

It is a competive world for the investment dollar. I expect Egypt to be competitive. The alternative is going to be a lose-lose-lose...and they have been there before.

best
the gnome.

Great time to be in commodities...
https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/19350/commodities-cheapest-levels-100-years-says-adam-rozencwajg
and out of the fiat's

The way to survive a total collapse of the economic system is to hold gold, said the Dutch National Bank (DNB) in an article published on their website.

In the note, the DNB calls the yellow metal an "anchor of trust" that is able to retain its value "even in times of crisis."

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-10-14/In-gold-we-trust-Dutch-National-Bank-prepares-for-economic-doomsday.html

The read on these guys is not inspiring. Catherine F..."a different perspective...blah blah" So what?, I could get the cabby off the streets to give a different perspective. What is so special in her perspective that commnad attention and repsect? What has she done that has made a material difference to a company of the size of CEY.

The board and the spin masters need a good boot ....

Sorry, my jury is out... CEY needs to be a lot smarter in the human department. I have no problems with the orebdoy.

best
the gnome.

Wellgoodluck. Not to many gold miners I would buy, and the reasons have been exposed.
Most are technically lacking, and this sets up a lot of surirses. The differece being the CEY asset is world class, .... alot of gold deposts are not close....

2.8% Interim Dividend,
last year full year dividend 5.6% nominal

and Interest rates from a big 4 bank (last of the tax payer guaranteed, protected species?) in OZ ...

Term Rate
30 days 0.35% p.a.
60 days 1.00% p.a.
90 days 2.15% p.a.
120 days 2.35% p.a.
150 days 2.50% p.a.
180 days 2.80% p.a.
210 days 2.80% p.a.
240 days 2.80% p.a.
270 days 2.75% p.a.
1 year 2.70% p.a.
18 months 2.60% p.a.
2 years 2.60% p.a.
3 years 2.60% p.a.
4 years 2.65% p.a.
5 years 2.70% p.a.

Hmm ....

Woder where I would put my money. More likely upside in CEY WHEN they get their new inde inspiring CEO! and they get into the high grade

best
the gnome

I would have to ask so what? An up and a down hickup for gold? Trump blunders again, the French taking over the ECB (grief), Turkey invades USA's (and the coalition of the willing) former allies, Australias energy policy shown to be worse than its water policy, Iranian tanker blows (or has been blown) up off Saudi coast, and Russian secret army seeks to do worse than the CIA and destabilise Europe. And lets not ponder Boris's next strategic move. Just another day at the office?

Big news was the Perth Mint move into Crypto backed by gold. Having just been to the Perth Mint and got the story, this to me is where the future lies. The fiat currencies are a farce and now backed by dubious political whims (nothing unusual here really), unusual economic theroies, makes a compelling story for more "rigour" in the money domain. It is increasingly difficult to forsee a world with endless money printing, savers penalised, zero or negative interest rates, financialisation of everything and anything....that does not need some stability like gold...and crypto.

go gold!

The gnome.

Yes Mr T

Very bad message frm the board for a guy who has consistently failed to deliver, failed to communicate clearly and one suspects his ability to lead and enthuse a diverse team across manay disciplines would be lacking. Not to say he is not a bad bloke, probably drinks beer and has a bet on the horses. But CEY is a billion dollar (or more) business, and needs a CEO with the proven leadership skills to capture the full value of the assets in the ground and in the workforce of the company. Rewarding poor performance is part of the culture that appears to be acceptable to the CEY board, which hopefully has now changed as shown by the "retirement" of the CEO, and it is the board who needs to change this culture immediately...of course it never quite happens in this aspirational time frame...but it has to change...and it will one way or another....may the best board of directors win....I say hinting at M and A.

I would really like to see an improved board perfromance, and one would think it is in the Chairmans best interest and in his key accountability to get this. He is not short of getting paid a pretty penny and his family has plenty of skin in the game.

Does anyone know of any poison pills in the company?

Onwards and upwards

goldgnome

Dasut

Not a bad description. But it is a lot worse than that. So they are mining something they cannot see, and they are using drill holes, lets say 80 mm diameter, to try in the first instance estimate the reserve or resource, sampling something which has an uneven distribution (generally) ... good luck

the gnome

I think the board gave a firm indication to the departing CEO that his result/s have not been acceptable. To see him "retire", is a very good sign of a properly functioing board. I do not think he was up to the job(One could ask why he was chosen but I think Josef has answered that, but Josef, being there for 12 years does not make him a good manager of an expanded mining operation). But a company must perform, and they must recruit a top line Manager/CEO. If they do this, this could be the tipping point. If Pardy would have stayed it would have been a bad look, in my opinion.

the gnome

Well the ****atoos have come home to roost. One of the fast appproaching train wrecks has just arrived for mining. Climate change induced water shortages (droughts). A Coal Project in Eastern Australia has been stopped due to pofoundly negative impact on local water access for farmers, and greenhouse gas balance, amongst other environmental reasons.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-01/nationals-want-overhaul-of-independent-planning-commission/11560304
The politicians or certain small number of them are out houling at the moon, saying this will raise the soveraign risk for investors in Australian Mining (and infrastructure!) such that they will go elsewhere. As one more informed young person commented, "No good being the short term (20 years mine life) quarry, and putting at risk the long term agriculture (200 years plus)".
Gold mining in Western Australia, is approaching a similar scenario. They are in effect mining water that is 20,000+ years old, to support mines which have a 10-20 year mine life.

https://onepeterfive.com/about/

Doesnt make a lot of sense to many. A lot dont care becuase the gold mining is out of sight, and in the desert. BUt the tip is they will run out of water before they run out of gold! And possibly not too far away. Who knows? Does the mining industry?

Droughts have been a well known feature on the driest continent forever one suspects. But oddly we don't really know much beyond about 130 years ago, as the Australian scientists have not gathered the data?

"A project undertaken at The University of Newcastle and supervised by Russell Drysdale
Drought is the most costly natural hazard facing Australia. It occurs at least once a decade, yet predicting its onset and likely magnitude remains elusive for climate forecasters. A major reason for this is a lack of climate records that cover periods of time of sufficient length to encompass the full spectrum of climate variability." So they arre off to the caves to study stalagmites.
http://www.hermonslade.org.au/projects/HSF_04_9/hsf_04_9.htm

The bottom line is that long term (perhaps not too long in the future ~10 years), Australias gold mining might not be a fraction of what it is now. Now it is near impossible to get professional investors to finance a mine development unless there is a robust water resource...in the ground....as well all know the rivers are starting to run dry
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-29/citrus-industry-mourns-end-fruit-cropping-lower-darling-river/11556106
https://theecologist.org/2011/jun/16/when-rivers-run-dry-what-happens-when-our-water-runs-out
(Australian tour group taking legal class action due to the state of European Rivers?! wonder who the action is against?)

the gnome, pondering water and the future of gold mining

Hard to see gold staying below $1500.

Harder to see the UK politics presenting something attractive to the UK people, anytime soon.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-28/boris-johnson-referred-to-police-watchdog-over-misconduct-claims/11557810

the gnome

Australia is far likely to have some veyr significianct claims against mining companies and governments
"When respected elder Dr Galarrwuy Yunupingu announced his intention to lodge a native title compensation claim against the Commonwealth over minerals on the Gove Peninsula"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-07/cultural-loss-payouts-likely-to-cost-billions-how-does-it-work/11389052

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-03/gove-traditional-owner-to-launch-compensation-mining-claim/11381034

Be great day for the lawyers, very bad days for the miners...I suspect

regards
Peter

WHERE, WHAT, WHEN AND WHO? – HIGHLIGHTING KEY GLOBAL EXPLORATION OPPORTUNITIES, TRENDS AND A PERSPECTIVE ON THE CYCLE OF MINERAL EXPLORATION
Posted on:October 15, 2018 Written by:Richard Schodde
PRESENTATION AT THE INTERNATIONAL MINING AND RESOURCES CONFERENCE (IMARC), MELBOURNE, OCTOBER 2018

Download Slides
This presentation gives an overview of recent trends in global exploration as well as the outlook to year 2025. For the first time I have included bulk mineral discoveries in my analysis.

Key observations are:

Over 1100 mineral discoveries have been made in the last decade … but only 15 of these were Tier-1. 4 each were found in Canada and China, 2 each in USA and DRC and zero in Australia.
Exploration expenditures are driven by changes in commodity prices and are highly cyclical. After peaking at US$31.0 billion in 2012 global expenditures fell to $10.5 billion in 2016. Since then it has rebounded to $11.8 billion in 2018. Based on fairly conservative commodity prices MinEx forecasts that expenditures will rise by 32% in real terms to $15.6 billion by 2025. The strongest growth will be in Base Metals and “Other” (ie battery and advanced minerals). And the strongest growing regions will be Latin America and Africa.
At present around 40% of all expenditures is directed towards gold exploration. Not surprisingly, gold currently accounts for around half of all mineral discoveries made in the World.
There appears to be a drop in the average size and quality of recent discoveries. It’s getting progressively harder to find a Tier-1 deposit.
With regard to the exploration methods used, at the project-scale level (i.e. where to take up leases) the main success factor for discovery was the presence of prior known mineralisation. At the prospect-scale level (i.e. where to site the drill rig) the two most successful techniques were geophysics and geochemistry.
With regard to who made the discoveries, prior to 1990 the scene was dominated by the Major Companies. However, in the last decade Junior Companies have become much more important and now account for 65% of all deposits found.
After several years of cut-backs and hibernation, in 216 the Junior Companies started rebuilding their cash reserves. They are now much more active in the field.
Based on analysis of gold sector spanning several business cycles over the last 40 years, MinEx found that the discovery performance (as measured in ounces found) peaked before the peak in exploration spend. Maximum performance was in the first couple of years after the market bottomed and turned
To expand on the last point … exploration performance is adversely affected at the top of the business cycle by the high salary and drilling costs and an over-investment in mediocre projects. https://minexconsulting.com/where-what-when-and-who-highlighting-key-global-exploration-opportunities-trends-and-a-perspective-on-the-cycle-of-mineral-exploration/

Good point Mr T.

You really do NOT need to do work, just trade now. Last year I made 3 times more in 5 times less...just trading,... than working. Sadly, but perhaps not in some respects, my son is now a professional trader. Very smart young man, could have been a great engineer/scientist (still time), ..."but whats the point Dad? "

"You can live where you like, just have internet connection and make suree its secure, trade (work) a few hours every day, be careful about asset allocation and outlier investments, have one girlfriend for mornings, another for the afternoon, and then one for the evening ...I suggest Tai Chi..."

"Dad, your problem was that you worked too hard, never understood the system, and never had the right work life balance! But I understand, its not your fault. You did the best at what you knew, ..back then. Times are different Dad, and you have to adjust, move on"

"You still got time Dad, I can see you're learning fast, you can make it"

And in the other ear I hear the economists talking about a productive economy, about how we need to achieve producitivty growth, to justify wages growth...blah , blah"

"Mr PhD Economist, your problem was that you worked too hard, never understood the system, and never had the right work life balance! But I understand, its not your fault. You did the best at what you knew, ..back then. Times are different Mr PhD Economist, and you have to adjust, move on"

"and now Mr Johnson...?"

Its a strange old world, for sure.

go gold, I understand you.
the gnome.

Grief its all happening!
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49810261
GBP is on a hiding, and cant seem to hide!
go gold !!!!

the gnome