Member Info for goldgnome

Mr T

I would not get distressed about this, as it is quite a common malaise in the Mining Industry. Egos run rampant, talent goes elsewhere.

A very jaundiced view: ...

The strength of a ming company is in fact the ore in the ground. A Tier 1 orebody is one which even the most incompetent management can operate at a profit. And yes I apprecaite there are other definitions.

Have a look of the history of Rio Tinto. Fabulous Iron Ore bodies, Tier 1...but Alcan, Mozambique coal...etc

Have a look at BHP....fabulous Iron Ore, but...tailings dams, Potash, Magma Copper, Shale etc etc ....

Vale...and their tailings dams that don't go away?

Centamin have one fabulous ores sytem, and possibly another in West Africa. The board, the mngt....

good luck, but be careful

the gnome

troube with this is how do you best get exposure to gold ...

plenty of disasters in Oz in the junior miner sector..or one mine companies...Dacian, Gascoyne, Medusa Mining etc....

the gnome

US$1418, please!

Oz interest rates going down new record 1%, only 2 more stops.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-02/interest-rates-at-1pc-may-be-new-for-australia-but-not-overseas/11271268

but then can we catch the Swiss
"SNB meets this week, expected to keep deposit rate at -0.75%"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/world-s-lowest-interest-rate-brews-trouble-for-swiss-property

Denmark -0.65%, Sweden -0.5%

..>>>> A MASSIVE STATEMENT OF LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE GOBAL ECONOMY! Low interest rate environments are meant to stimulate economic growth by making it cheaper to borrow money to finance investment in both physical and financial assets. One special form of low interest rates is negative interest rates..AND THE BAND PLAYED ON, SO BADLY, THAT PEOPLE BOUGHT GOLD BARS?
“Robust economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity,” said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. “As the outlook for the global economy has darkened, strengthening contingency planning, facilitating trade, and improving access to finance will be crucial to navigate current uncertainties and invigorate growth.”

The international economic order is on thin ice>>

Governance of the global economy is fragmenting as multilateral institutions become less representative of current realities and economic integration becomes more regionalized. The potential demise of the post-World War II economic order would herald weaker long-term prospects for global economic growth and prosperity as well as a more complicated international regulatory environment for companies.
The global trade system is at most acute risk of unraveling. Protectionist policies, violations of both the rules and the spirit of free trade agreements, and a looming risk that the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism will cease to function create profound risks for the current system of international trade. In addition, the US–China trade war threatens to weaken global growth prospects while raising costs and creating supply chain disruptions for many companies.
Companies need to adjust to slowing growth in a multi-local world. It is becoming clear that the new age of multi-localism—characterized by the preference for local communities, industries, products, cultures, and customs—is extending into international economic governance. National governments going it alone to implement policies outside the structures of the traditional multilateral institutions and are pursuing regional economic integration as global agreements become less desirable or untenable. To compete in this environment, companies may need more regional supply chains and greater devolution of management and operations to the local level!
https://www.atkearney.com/web/global-business-policy-council/article/?/a/global-economic-outlook-2019-2023-on-thin-ice

GOOD LUCK all!
THE GNOME.

Yes, and we still dont know the perfromance hurdles...what a pack of clowns....

Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, told Kitco News that prices for the yellow metal may still see much higher levels from here.

“We should continue to see that break through $1,400 and I anticipate that a lot of the short sellers will end up giving up at that level. So, no telling how high we can go from here, it’s kind of got that perfect storm going on with increasing geopolitical risks and then also a dovish Fed,” Streible said.

Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment has said that once $1,400 an ounce is breached, the next level is $1,700, and Streible said that is definitely possible.

“It is entirely possible. The Fed, it’s factored in at 100% that they will cut next meeting. If you look at the last time we had this aggressive hike cycle followed by rate cuts, they had higher levels to go down from, so with the Fed only being at 2 and a quarter right now, if they cut a half, that doesn’t give them much firepower in order to stabilize the economy,” he said.

Another round of quantitative easing could happen, Streible added, and that could push gold much higher.

I wouldnt be worried too much about Iran...much more about Saudi Arabia...and another country in the middle east?

Gold production guidance of 490,000 – 520,000 ounces for 2019, with increased stripping in the open pit balanced by estimated higher average grades.
Cash cost of production in 2019 are expected to be between US$675-US$725 per ounce produced and AISC between US$890- US$950 per ounce sold
So thats a cash flow appox forecast of $330m and $377m if we assume $1400/oz
30% of free cash flow
Div payout available to shareholders between $99m and $113m
us8.6c (GBP6.8) to us10c? (GBP7.9)or 6.2% to 7.1% Div..OK its a bit rough...

I am feeling happy, better than the Bank of England!

best
the gnome

Thanks Mr T.

Still no acknoweldgement.

I will do as you suggest, and will see what happens.

best
the gnome

No reply from Andrew, and none from the "Investor Relations" people,

Total Shareholder Return, what a lot of gooblygook...if this means dividend growth and share price appreciation, then we have had neither, so what are we missing in our understanding of the term?

but you have to wonder whether the KPI's and performance measures for 2019 are the same for 2018, when 2018 performance measures obviously did not lead to the right behaviours and outcomes for the company.

It looks like the remuneration committee might be on cruise control

best
the gnome

Thanks Mr T

The directors need some education and guidance. Lesson 101

LISTEN TO YOUR OWNERS

Perhaps suggest how ridiculous their communications are...they do not get it. Almost Louis XIV stuff LOL

best
the gnome

Hedgehogg

The immediate warning signs "in" the article were

1. It is written by a PhD Economist
2. It is written about a group of PhD Economists

If I had time to write a book about some of the most overated and useless people on the planet it would be about PhD Econmists.

I have a strong preference for believing in the Easter Bunny, who delivers a few chocolates eggs to me, on time, every year.

Apart fromthe Easter Bunny, I have a strong preference for Gold, which, depsoie the best efforts by the PhD Economists, have failed to dislodge as one of the most important vessels of wealth. The vaue of the US$ has of course done what it does so well. Devalue every year .... and the PhD economists should be able to tell you why.

the gnome

Mr T

Indeed.

I sent this to Centamin plc, addressed as ...
...Via email.
Andrew Pardey, CEO
Alexandra Carse, Investor Relations
+44 (0) 7700 713 738
alexandra.carse@centamin.je

Yet to even get acknowledgement. They are a very unprofessional and unimpressive management group. You would think it simple courtesy, if not compulsive governance that if you are going to tell owners (us) of the company that they have decided to grant new shares and dilute our ownership, that they could at least tell us what the hurdles or performance measures were for the granting. That is what exactly did they have to perform. What is the meaure of value they give us, for what we have given them. It says something that they did not bother to tell us in the one communication. Instead...go find it...here it is...2018 Ann Rpt ...looking back, but of course it hurts for us to look back, and we are a forward looking group?

In reviewing performance against the strategic, corporate and individual targets, the Remuneration Committee
considered the key milestones achieved during the year which Andrew Pardey was instrumental in delivering.
These included the following:
ANDREW PARDEY
ACHIEVED (UNAUDITED)
Strategic (see full details in the strategic report and operational highlights)
• Delivered reserve replacement at Sukari Underground
• Progressed Sukari Underground operation – Cleopatra exploration & development
• Exploration drilling programmes in Côte d’Ivoire (Doropo and ABC projects) undertaken
• Reviewed and assessed M&A projects
• Preparation of long term mine plans and related models
Total provisional
outturn (as % of max
bonus): 3%
Corporate (see full details in the 2018 sustainability report which is published separately)
• More than 95 Take5 pre-start micro-risk assessment completed every day
• 38.9% of all water recycled
• +$744,574 invested in community development projects in 2018
• 58% of suppliers at Sukari are Egyptian up from 45% in 2017
Total provisional
outturn (as % of max
bonus): 5%
Individual KPIs (see further details in the operational review, Nomination Committee and sustainability
reports)
• Updated resource statements covering Doropo and ABC in Côte d’Ivoire...
• Arranged and attended key government meetings in Egypt..
• Board succession and diversity progressed.
• Senior management team appointments made...
• Solar power farm evaluation progressed
• Supply chain reviewed/preparation of human rights policies undertaken
• HR policies and procedures reformed...
• GRI compliance and CDP disclosures made...
Total provisional
outturn (as % of max
bonus): 15%

The questions I ask myself are

1. what is the alignment with shareholders?
2. what are the real performance metrics for each...so what if he attended some meetings with the government, what were the outcomes, how did they relate to growing the company etc
3. where is reference to the share price?
etc etc

muddling medicority

the

Good Morning

Your company published remuneration share eligibiity, and mentioned perfomance hurdles.
I could not find such information on your website. Can you please send this information to me today, and I would suggest you put such information in an easy to find location on your website.

thanks

Mick-b

Yes, lets hope Kirkland does not have "Dacian moment". The Goldfields of Victoria have bought a few companies to their knees when they least expected it...geology in Victoria can be a bit like the politicians of that state...a bit unpredictable (dont mention royalties anyone)

best
the gnome.

Your cold and wet gnome downunder, reports that Australia has finally gone into unrepcedented territory in the interest rates...the LOWEST INTEREST RATES IN HISTORY! The economists are out in force arguing amongst themselves (pitiful lot really) whether it will go DOWN into the VERY unprecented level of 1% or the VERY VERY UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL..of 0.5%.

Australia's unemployment rate remained stuck at 5.2 per cent last month, despite the creation of 42,300 jobs in May...only 2,000 FULL TIME JOBS CREATED, bit of a worry for the youunger generation, and the older generation who have not got enough money to retire on.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2 per cent, but hours worked fell

The US look like its proposed war with Iran and general unsettling of the Middle east (yet again) will eventuate, and we can only hope there is a better result than the toppling of Gadaffi in Libya, but evidence of learning has been absent for decades now. The unemployed mercenaries and truck loads of guns and ammunitionfrom Libya continues to wreak havooc in northern Mali and northern Burkian Faso, which seems to be more about the control of the cocaine and narotics trafficking route than the Jihadists!

Funding for the Junior Explorers has all but stalled, and confidence in the new small to mid gold miners has evaporated, with Dacian, St Barbara, Gascoyne etc ....

Could be a perfect storm for Gold?

nice to see CEY moving in the right direction. With continued move of gold in the right direction, could be a good end to the financial year!

best for the weekend, and fo the Mathilda's!

the gnome

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, the deal value of Barrick-Randgold merger represented 47% of the US$24.89 billion total value of gold and base metals deals in 2018. The price buyers paid per ounce of gold jumped 178% year over year to US$88.85/oz, an eight-year high and above the 10-year average of US$64.20/oz, as gold prices continued rising in 2018.

Applying this in ground value to Centamin
Ounces Value
M and Ind 15,200,000.00 $1,352,800,000.00
Inferred 2,870,000.00 $255,430,000.00

Grand Total $1,608,230,000.00

Adding $ for plant and equipment, and exploration potential, by as much 25-30%.

At a Mkt Cap of $1.2b, CEY appears v undervalued ....

So as a thumb suck, GBP 1.30 coming up?

Paul Tudor speaking.....President Donald Trump's tariff battle with China boosts the chances of a Federal Reserve reduction, setting the stage for the strategy. The trade is part of a standard playbook he calls "first rate cut 101". That includes being long rates, gold and "at some point short the dollar", Jones said on Tuesday in an interview.

Gold is his favourite pick in the next 12 to 24 months. If it hits $US1400, it will quickly move to $US1700, he said. It now trades at about $US1334.

Jones said the Fed is "probably on the cusp of the first rate cut after a long hiking cycle".

Definitely worth a listen to this guy, one fo the useful economists!. > Gary Shilling says the U.S. entered a recession in the second quarter this year. He gave a 66% probability lats in Jan 2019 ....He explains why he expects it to be a mild recession and outlines the potential crises he sees on the horizon

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/01/02/gary-shilling-sees-two-thirds-chance-of-recession/?slreturn=20190511194805

https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/19156/gary-shilling-us-has-entered-recession

his track record...looks something like this

In the spring of 1969, he was one of only a few analysts who correctly envisioned the recession at year's end, and was almost a lone voice in 1973, when he forecast a monolithic international inventory-building fling, followed by the first significant recession since the Great Depression.

In the late 1970s, while most analysts presumed that waxing inflation would go on unabated, Shilling was the first to predict that America's infirm political climate would impede it. He also foresaw various dangerous economic readjustment problems and a shift in investment strategy from a preference for tangible assets to an increased emphasis on stocks and bonds.

In June 2011, he predicted a 20% drop in housing in 2012 with a resulting global recession. In October 2012 he predicted a global recession in 2013.

In August 2015, he predicted that the price of oil "is headed for $10 to $20 per barrel" (it was $43/barrel at the time) due to higher productivity through fracking and OPEC not limiting production.

IF THE EXPANSION IS ON THE SAME LEASE, AND TH EASE IS STILL CURRENT, THE OLD LAW WILL STILL APPLY, UNLESS CENTAMIN WANTED TO CHANGE THIS, AND THEN A CHANGE MIGHT BE MADE TO COMPLY WITH ANY NEW LEGISLATURE. WORKS LIKE THIS EVERYWHERE I HAVE BEEN.

Its all happening in good old Oz, and I suspect it will start to spread. There will be a lot of movement at the station, very soon now. The ultra low interest rates are sending the wrong signals and not adrressing the real problems.

Australians who rely on earning interest from their savings will the biggest losers after the Reserve Bank slashed rates to a record low last week.

Key points:
Interest, earned from term deposits and savings accounts, is expected to drop further this year
More than 50 banks cut term deposit rates in the last two months
Retirees and first-home savers are likely to be the hardest hit groups
A total of $526 billion is currently held in savings accounts across the nation, according to report by financial comparison website Finder.

It also found that households may lose around $1.3 billion in interest from their term deposits and saving accounts if the banks pass on the full rate cut of 0.25 percentage points.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-10/rba-cut-falling-deposit-interest-rate-retirees-first-home-savers/11195472?section=business

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-10/why-are-share-markets-rising-when-central-bankers-are-so-worried/11190556?section=business