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So your new logical argument is to say- you were wrong in the past (even though the world was entirely different then and THG was operationally performing much better) and therefore you can’t update your view on new info
I first bought THG when the world was different. I sold some as it changed is that not what investors are supposed to do? If you owned shares in a business and one day its factory blew up would you just hold out? No
And again you say I’m giving my “coloured” opinion when I have asked clearly tell me what is my opinion and where I’m factually wrong. As I said and knew…you wouldn’t. So who really has the coloured opinion? The one dealing in facts or the one making emotional strawman arguments? I’ll help you. It’s the latter
If you want to make a point about THG go for it. Otherwise stop commenting. Another thread ruined as people are so emotionally attached.
And I never bragged about JD. I was asked and I think that move has gone well I’m not sad either way. I always think if I was happy the call I live with it. Unless FACTS change (like THG a few years ago to now)
Are you Matt’s mum? Does seem like it
Here’shopin if you’d like to point out any factual errors in what I’ve said? But of course you won’t as you never do
Also if you can explain how having more or less shares changes those facts? Again you won’t
Ever tried an adult conversation or do you just walk through life making strawman arguments?
I don’t think there will be a bid (obvs would like to be wrong if it’s a good price). But my reasoning goes along
- SOTP valuation ultimately takes away from what Apollo would want to realise. They want to buy it cheap and sell it for its parts. If we ask for that where is Apollos upside? A point I haven’t seen anyone make
- the Nutrition comps are useful but MyProtein is in a sticky place atm. Its margin is well below what Bellring makes and also MyProtein is LOSING customers. So to apply a multiple or revneue when the underlying dynamics are bad isn’t a good deal
- beauty is getting smashed (not much to say here and the excuse on the call was BS)
- cash flow. THG aren’t desperate sellers but press article yesterday said the property sale (which isn’t underlying FCF btw) isn’t going through. And from the H1 PY call we know the other moving parts for FCF were based on mid-teens growth. Instead you’ve got minus 10% for beauty and 5% for nutrition. It’s miles off atm. Whey prices will help but continuing fall in Beauty means that business will be breakeven or loss making at EBITDA level. It will be negative cash if there is capex needed
- ingenuity isn’t a business. It’s plan changes every week and it’s added one material customer in the last year. How are you supposed to tell an investment committee that it’s a safe place for your clients money? Even THG don’t know what they want Ingenuity to be
So if I was Apollo. Id wait. Id still want to own THG but I can’t see them getting to SOTP. And THG shouldn’t sell for anything less
Not a like for like business (if anything it’s poor relative) but bought out for 12x this morning
No where near the level of recurring revenue and margins are poor. I was offered to buy an asset from
Sureserve 3 or so years ago. The whole stream of work was delivered by subcontractors, vs Marlowe where you get in-house experts
12x puts Marlowe at north of £10!
I know most have blinkers just to positive stuff but did anyone manage to access this?
If the deal doesn’t happen it’s a big chunk for cash target
I think people are waiting. You're either at 100% (or more) gain here on a bid or 50% loss if there's no bid due to dire results (and it seems like the property sale is falling through)
Market is just waiting now
https://wp-marlowe-2022.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/11/Marlowe-Annual-Report-31-Mar-2022-1.pdf
I must be blind!
https://reactnews.com/article/thgs-manchester-airport-hangar-sale-up-in-the-air/
Can anyone access this and do we think this relates to the £40m freehold that’s apparently “sold” since H1. I appreciate these things take a long while to complete
Pg19 is a picture?
I do agree though that any placing will be delayed until the price is reasonable. I wouldn't be oppose to a placing but the issue is that GRC or cyber assets would be dilutive
I'd rather a placing to pay down debt and then let the shares recover from FCF
Sorry where is the GRC quote from? With 100 developers in-house now we don’t need to be doing M&A for software we can build software ourselves (prosure 360 being an example)
I fully agree on your view of easier yields elsewhere. I also agree re this being a takeover is speculative. But these areas are attractive to PE
Which REITs are you buying? I would like to add a few but I also want to try and pick up bargains in small caps (I’m 40% cash atm)
“Softbank had a Put Option....why do you think they sold out at 39p ....they made money on the Option to offset against the Long holding of buying in much higher ... winning on selling at 39p offsets quite well against losing on buying at 500p ..”
And this is made up bull****!
I agree. Hopefully this deal reflects discussions from a while ago and therefore Marlowe, in good faith, have to do the deal or lose out. The Asbestos deal was a process so that won’t have been planned but I did like to see the advisors who sold it about about the software in that business
Rates look like they will go up in May and June according to Bloomberg so more pain to come on that front
I don’t want to see shorts close. I’d rather them get the full burn
I don’t think your figures are quite right. The dividends are in the final notes of the accounts and reserves are on the balance sheet
I think profit last year (Apr-22) was poor about £150k but £800k or so the year before
Maybe the business had a bad 12 months but you’d think with that many staff Marlowe can cut 30-40%?
Clymac - fire safety business with 133 staff! So hopefully there are some big synergies with this one via route density
More cash out of the door though!
Makes you wonder what they are seeing here? Is it that they expect SME’s to get hammered and therefore Marlowe have a dip in profits and some bad debts?
I don’t see what the broad issue is here? Inflation today will mean rates go up again but this can be afforded especially if Marlowe can pass through some more price rises which for their services they likely can
Well this is going from bad to worse!
I think what some of you forget is…we’ve heard all that before! Probably 3 or 4 times now. According to Matt THG has never missed numbers there’s always been a strategic reason
The beauty excuse is **** poor hence why it got asked about on the call they shut it down asap. You’re retailing third party beauty products. All have a similar margin and all are fulfilled from the Ingenuity owned warehouse so why all of a sudden does it make sense to sell lip stick in Italy but not mascara?
If ingenuity is the global online retailing bazooka they claim, and ingenuity carry the fixed costs, then what’s the low margin and what’s the high margin?
Except*
Another Q4 issue is unlikely?
Accept it just repeated in Q1 FY23
I think the beauty margin at 6% won’t happen. The market is now too competitive. I said this months ago but marketing and advertising spend will be rising to try and keep sales (which isn’t working). But I think it’s telling how much they made of gains from “free” media channels so they have clearly been feeling the pain on this
I do think on nutrition this could go higher. When you look at peers