The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Would you want to be asked?
It’s not a moot point as I’m saying 90p is holding due to the bid
The Apollo RNS hadn’t come out we’d be looking at 50p now
Patek. Gold nautilus
Well he’s wearing a £200k watch on the presentation video!
I know very little about tax losses so I’m more than happy to be wrong but the reality is is that tax losses are hard for anyone else to utilise. So it’s not like Apollo “gets” the losses and can pass aroun Apollo
The only way they can ever be used is to limited THG future profits which is nothing different to any other loss making business as the main risk is getting to profitability
As I say happy to be wrong but I don’t think tax losses are quite the bargaining chip they once were, particularly for PE where their trade isn’t the same as yours
Not all losses can carry over. I don’t think impairment can
After two dogs yesterday I feel I called the numbers fairly well!
Some good points in there though. The tie up with BigCommerce is interesting. I really want to here more there
Beauty revneue performance was poor and last year profit was awful
Apollo likely see value in THG but not as THG!
Apologies but I’ve been in London today. While it’s been fantastic news I think I’m more than allowed to get on with my life!
I also don’t think anything I’ve said waters down a bid. Ultimately a bidder will look through a poor quarter if they believe in the long term potential. I wasn’t being glass half full about the long term I was answering a question of what to expect tomorrow. Not in 3 months or longer
But let’s hope the bid is good. I see this as more credible as Apollo are serious and won’t be letting this name used as a stalking horse
That bid to take private was Macquarie. WP then acquired their stake 2 or 3 years later but at an even higher premium
Wow, a lot of pressure here! Ha
Excluding a black swan event (MBO etc) I think we are looking at a bad trading update
- beauty got smashed over Christmas when we know boots and others has their best ever. Also Sephora web traffic is now equal or above Lookfantastic (only 10% of THG revenue is apps so google traffic a good measure). I don’t see why that would have reversed into Q1
- MyProtein we know was only post flat revenue numbers due to price increases. Volumes and customer numbers are down at H1, again what would make me think that’s reversed? Nothing. Prices aren’t down from H1, if anything I’d say they are up. And as the price closes to higher brands people just step up (ON isn’t seeing as big an impact as THG). Of course nutrition is more profitable now but is the plan to be growing?
My thought around MyProtein is the brand is too in the middle. It no longer feels like an athletes brand but more like a casual wellness brand. If I was younger I’d see how other brands draw young males over MYP (just my opinion of course but the data follows)
- Ingenuity I think will be a jam tomorrow update ie we have slashed all the non-profitable sites (which again is really maddening as 1) why were we signing up and shouting about sites that were unprofitable and 2) did we really understand our own business that much that we didn’t know these sites were not going to be profitable!)
Matalan and the new win will ramp up over the year but we need a fair few more of these. A random site for Ed sheran hot source is the former and not the later! We need another matalan or Homebase
So in honesty I think tomorrow will be another disappointment for revenue. Which means all we can do is hope for profits by cost cutting
I don’t see a share buy back if I’m right on the revenue points above
Fully expect to be shot now for this but if you disagree share data or something factual not just ranting because it hurts your feelings
That’s amazing. Well let’s hope there’s a PE bid soon
As well as what I said about Citation I heard from good authority from an IB friend that the Warburg Pincus deal for PTSG was at 17x EBITDA. I can accept valuations have come off but even if you apply 12x (which is arguably cheap when you see that PTSG has no software) then we clear £10 a share
Are you serious? Wow!
Mind me asking your background?
Wow you’ve a fair few share here!
JP Morgan are up again! They seem to really have conviction here
Are they driving the volume? I’m not sure how shorting would do that?
Coincidently they were increasing their short on Network International and that received a PE bid this afternoon
The point missing though is if ingenuity is supposed to be this bazooka of e-commerce, a complete end-to-end solution with billions spent on its software then why does it need so many plug in solutions?
Why are so many of these features either missing or better from some one else?
Ulta and elf are different. Ulta is a retailer of third party brands where elf is a brand
Ultas higher margin is likely due to its model of being in out of centre retail parks which have seen huge fall in rents over the last decade. Also I’d say online has become less profitable as competing for customers has become more expensive. Online was originally a no brainer as it was cheaper, that’s not as true now as brands dislike the discounting. But CAC has soared and 17 other people can now compete online (THG ingenuity’s new sign up is another £150m rev beauty retailer id never heard of!)
I think beauty will post very poor Q1 numbers. The google traffic shows Sephora have really taken a bite and we know app is only 10% for THG
MyProtein I also think will have poor revenue figures, when you strip out price growth
Unless there’s a Hail Mary I don’t see what is going to be positive
Fair enough. I also sold some at a similar level just to derisk but I still hold the bulk
JPM short starter pre Christmas. They just seem to top up at start of April
Do we think PE will ride to our aid here?
Concerning to see a short increase last week. I had hoped that the rise in share price was due to one closing
Interestingly the recent acquisition was a competitive process so must have been a good target as Marlowe felt compelled to do it in a competitive setting (vs an off market deal they could delay)
https://www.hurst.co.uk/news-and-events/latest-news/hurst-advises-pcs-asbestos-consultants-on-sale-to-aim-listed-marlowe