Member Info for Goldbug99

Here is an idea! The company is currently worth £7M or less than the JV funding in place, so effectively zero.
Conroy reckons he would sell out the PLC for £60M.
Let's split the difference at £30M, pay everyone 65p a share, he can trouser £2M for his 7% and move to whatever retirement home he has lined up, because this lack of focus and progress is ridiculous!

Sadly it looks like Demir are just repeating the last 30 years of haphazard scattergun exploration. No real update on the resource in a decade. £10M won't go far at this rate, and I wonder if they will just generate another three (Slieve G. Clay Lake, Glenish) early-stage sub-1Moz Clontibrets, then sit on their cheaply acquired 50% asset and look to flog it on to a major? More speculators, not developers.

Conroy could AND SHOULD have held their feet to the fire and insisted on a focused fast-paced resource development on the most advanced project - 20,000m in the 1st year, resource and PFS in the 2nd (that's 2023 folks!). In a lot of jurisdictions you loose/relinquish your licence if you don't develop within 3-5 years, but maybe management has a similar exit strategy?

Looks like Demir are still "tire kicking": a few holes here, there and everywhere and a year on, no concentrated systematic resource program.

£10M is easily burned through at £250/m for drilling, assay and overhead, and there is a lot more to "mine-ready status" than just drilling!!!

At the historic rate of 25,000m for the 500,000oz (not moved in nearly a decade), the "indicated" (pun intended) 8Moz "potential" (was that at 5% success rate?) is going to take 400 KILOMETERS of drilling - £100 million or 10× the JV, so I wish they would just focus and get on with it, or we will all be in our 90's by the time first gold is poured!

Demir are a private company. They have zero interest, obligation or benefit from talking, and no duty to shareholders. In fact it is in their interest for Conroy to do badly, and be forced to sell at a low price, or come development, to be unable to fund their share.

The drill holes seem to be mostly inclined at ~60° and the lodes are sub vertical, so a 0.5m intersection is a true width of 25cm. It is impossible to mine a stope narrower than 1 meter, so with unavoidable dilution, 6g/t becomes 1.5g/t run-of-mine. In Canada, a regular update via a NI43-101 technical report, showing drill hole locations, intersections, maps etc. is mandatory, so investors can make informed decisions. Shame AIM isn't so. Of course the company could voluntarily do so, instead of meaningless numbers, thrown about out of context.

Quite cleverly worded. "Stockwork gold was intersected over 375 metres"

Actual: in a 338m hole, gold was intersected over just 4.5 meters at an average grade of 0.38g. This hole was over ? of a kilometer away from earlier drilling.

Stick to the existing resource area, please!!! Infill, not step-out.

Parkez: "After which they decided to search for a partner?"

They have been searching since 2005.

RNS of 17/11/2005: AIM-quoted Conroy Diamonds and Gold plc says that it is investigating various options to advance the interests of the company as a means of building on the “excellent gold exploration results” that the Company has continued to achieve on its licences in Ireland. These include joint ventures and farm-outs, says Chairman, Professor Richard Conroy, in the annual report for the year ended May 31, 2005.

Demir not Demos. Damn autocorrect

Parkez: 68 holes for a total of 9,828.7m (for ~0.5Moz) is consistent with the international average of 20-25,000m of drilling per Moz (@2g+).

So expect an additional 50,000oz per 1,000m drilling, given their drilling 50% success rate (~20k drilled, 10k used), as they are still "exploring" i.e. drilling deeper and unproven areas, not infill drilling between shallow, well-tested areas.

This would go up to maybe 100,000oz per 1,000m if they concentrated exclusively on "completing the jigsaw" within the existing resource area.

I can only suspect Demos are more concerned about testing the long-term, wide-spread potential of their investment, i.e. they want to see if the promised multi-million ounce potential is true, rather than extend the existing modest resource which is a potential small mine.

You can't DEVELOP a mine without a bankable feasibility study (even if you don't need to raise the capital, you just won't get the permits without it).
You can't produce a BFS without an iron-clad reserve (not a resource).
You can't declare a reserve without a significant, 1Moz+++ resource, the majority in the indicated category.
Cart-horse-before...

@FV "They should also be drilling at Clay Lake although they probably wouldn't tell us even if they were."
You actually serious? ANYTHING which has the potential to affect the value of the company, either up or down MUST be reported/disclosed in a timely manner, i.e. as soon as it is known/confirmed. It's material information. Keeping it back for management and inner circle, whether to benefit from upside or to pre-empt downside, is called insider-trading.

0.5, 0.3 & 0.1g/t.

Whilst licences cone with commitments and need to be kept alive, Demir will have a budget and not bottomless pockets. Far better to systematically drill 2g+ resource targets than wildcatting in Leprechaun pasture.

Fairview: "The 8M oz resource that was estimated..." I do suggest you read the JORC, SAMREG or NI43-101 codes on the legal definition of a RESOURCE, because saying "if we went there and drilled it, we might find it" isn't one of them.
8Moz is decades of work and investment away.
20,000m×8Moz×£200/m=£32M and 25 years at the current 3,000m every 6 months. At 5% success it is 20 times that ??. So steady on chap.

Which is exactly what I mean. 10,000m hit economic grades, 12,000m was the stuff in between. That is how a resource works. You drill the stuff like a swiss cheese, then join up the dots.

22,000m for 500,000 oz is actually a lot of drilling. My suspicion is that it has always been sporadic, on different targets, a few holes here and there to support funding and never a systematic campaign. What this says is that the low grades and dispersed nature of the lodes, and deep nature of the stockwork mean more drilling per ounce is needed than the average.
If it was my money (and now a little bit of it is) I would concentrate on just a small area, drilled systematically, and no deeper than a foreseeable 1st mining operation can handle. But that's just my 2p.
As to Demitmr, 100,000oz in 7 years - 15,000oz/year from a 1.5Mty operation? Is that mill or strip&mine? That's nothing to be proud of. At $5-600/oz profit it is £6-7M/yr. It puts their grade at 0.3g/t too, which is highly suspect. Methinks the mill capacity is a lot lower, which means the resource is smaller.

@Fairview. I never said it was sub-economic, I said (implied) it is very cost sensitive at low grade!

Assuming the (massive) stockwork has a much lower strip ratio (4:1?) that drops costs by $10/t to $30/t.

At 1g/t that is $900/oz, at 0.75g/t it's $1,200 and at 0.5g/t it's $1,800. Put another way, increase the strip by one tonne and thus the mining cost by $2/t and the 0.75g/t cost goes up by $80 for every extra tonne of waste.

I see it, I'm sure Demir see it (do you?) and they seem prepared to risk small change finding out, and btw have zero interest in supporting the SP, indeed exactly the opposite, they will want their "partner" (us) weakened, off their back and out of the picture eventually.

It's a fair price to buy RN, but there need to be some significant grades, increased resource or an updated PEA before the SP is out of the woods.

DS said "I would expect opex in Ireland to come in higher than Philippines"

The consumer price index for Ireland (world #22 at 67) is similar to Canada, Australia, US and Scandinavia, and more than double that of Philippines (#97 at 33) and Turkey (#121 at 28).
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/rankings_by_country.jsp

It is pretty clear that the stripping cost also needs to be considered. Obviously the strip ratio is a lot higher on thin lodes, even though these are high grade, than on massive, lower grade stockwork.

My take is that $2/t mining costs (on 9+1), $13/t mill costs, plus G&A and capital are going to be IRO $40/t which equates to $600/oz at 2g and cut-off at 0.75g where cost=gold price of $1,600/oz.

That is gold recovered, so look at 2.5g/t grade and 1g/t cut-off for resource.

For all the wishful thinking I don't think Turkish "cost cutting" will apply in Ireland, one of the highest cost economies in the EU.

There is some meat on the bone, but not so much on the lower grades.

200,000 oz INDICATED at $50/oz = $10M ÷ 43M shares = 23 cents or 17p. Markets are not dumb. The SP will go up if and when new results change the reality.

It takes around 25,000m of drilling (or $4-5M) to define an indicated resource of 1Moz at 2g/t, which is why indicated gold-in-the-ground is typically valued at around $40-50/oz (10× premium).
At 3,000m every 6 months that is 3+years for even the minimum 1Moz resource. They need to get at least five percussion rigs each drilling at least 50m/day for at least 1-2 years, and spend $5-10M to get a 1-2M++oz INDICATED resource to generate a bankable feasibility. Private company Demir may be, with no need to recourse finance, but no government is going to permit a mine without a resource and BFS, not to mention 3-5 years permitting. That is why the smart money is hesitant, and we are sitting at 18p.