Member Info for goingunderground

Well thats been a difficult 6 months. Still Ive taken my profit. In at 1.1p and out at 17p. Its been a blast (and a worry) but thats my mortgage gone now :-) Until we meet again

Damn it. I was gonna buy back into this yesterday . Grrr. Lets see what happens to that yawning spread yet beofre I beat myself up too much

I have asked the admin to remove my original post as it contained an error. Hopefully they will do this.

Getinthere. I did apologise for my missing the couple of words in your post. If you want to criticise my maths rather than my reading. Can you critique the rest of the post

If this produces 150t in quarter 2 then it is still a VERY long way from being cash positive especially with the current depressed tungsten price.
At 150t, It's probably at best only 50% of what it needs to break even and that's assuming production costs stated in the FID are correct, there has been no update on production costs but the debt servicing costs are WAY over those that are provided in the FID.

I am sure the FID assumed 200t a MONTH to be produced in 2018 not 50t a month in 2020. It seems poor (like my reading of your post)

My apologies. I misread. That makes more sense.

Doesn’t the grant already have a lien on it. On a relatively low interest bank loan ? Receiving the grant will make little fundamental difference other than a minor reduction in monthly debt servicing costs.
Only production matters, do not let the grant distract whether it arrives or not

Well at least I am not the most pessimistic now though the video offers little encouragement for any optimism.

Sorry if I am outside of the "opening hours" but I am unlikely to be online later.
I will go for 75t WO3 and 27t Sn
ATB and lets hope I am wrong

Got in "late" yet with a fair wind here I am 70% up. Time for profits :-)

Its a good day :-)

Looking over things that I was considering investing in a few weeks ago now when the world was more normal. Reflecting.
I cannot see posts from Mogwhy, he was kind enough to engage with me amongst a small numbers of other. I hope he is well?
Seems I dodged a bullet following my gut instinct on this one or I would be 50% down. Production is well below anyones expectations and with a close down I cannot see this surviving the likely 3 month downturn.
Good luck to all holders, I fear that you will need a good deal of it.
Keep your distance

My apologies, I didn't say Thank you

So with APT at $240 we get 200 tonnes x 100 (to get mtu) x 240 x 80% = $3.84m of tungsten concentrate revenue per month or $46m per year.
Tin 52% concentrate production at 40 tonnes per month gives another $350,000 per month revenue or $4.2m per year.

If these are the numbers then surely Mr Masterson should be quoting them. They are significantly better than those quoted in the FID he is referring to. They are so far apart it leaves no confidence in either. It would be nice to see that FID updated with numbers, here I am looking at an investment with no real insight. I can understand why the price is not holding. I will keep watching and trying to understand this but I think it is too unclear to me, I have an reasonable (for me) investment in Metrobank which has been slaughtered (50%) and I am considering just averaging that down for a long term safe recovery or being reckless and going for a large gain in a higher risk. I am flummoxed. Metrobank is up 10% today but I did nothing. Maybe I should be in Premium bonds

Thanks again Mogwhy.
I still cannot correlate this. I am using the only FID I can see https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0702P_-2017-8-25.pdf I am looking at slide 29.
You are correct that in the FID shows $36m revenue in 2020, but with EBITDA of $18.6m. It also shows $34m revenue in 2019, with an EBITDA of 15.2m so assuming this is now 1 year late my expectation would be $34m with EBITDA of $15.2 for this year. The interview suggests different numbers again $36m with $20m EBITDA. The numbers are all over the place.
I understand that the FID is 3 years old and that things change but I cannot see how the EBITDA has increased by such a large amount.
You then introduce a new number of $50m for the year with $23m EBITDA, where does this come from.

Debt in FID is $30m but is currently $55-58m

Sorry for all of the questions, but I must be missing something

Fair comment

Thank you Mogwhy.
Maybe my confusion stems from a comment in the last annual report, It speaks of 80% of the capacity of La Parilla being pre-sold to 2 tungsten processors. Maybe thats how how it is being figured. I see the FID is calculated Based on an APT price profile incorporating a long-term price of US$300/mtu (66% WO3product, realising 80% of the APT price 2017dollar terms) thats what it says anyway.
I prefer to work on 100T per month at the moment. It will go up and down as things happen, but I see the minimum requirement to be this. This would mean based on your numbers
Monthly Income of $1.92m W and $175k Sn Total of $2.095m
Monthly Production Costs of $1.1m (100 x $11000/T)
Monthly Gross profit Circa $1m
Monthly Interest $600k
Operating profit $400k

Thats seems fine to me 20% NP Even factoring in depreciation, it still indicates positive cash flow at 100t, with current debt interest at a fairly high level. If production does get to max levels then capital repayment period could be short (<5yrs)
So the gamble is whether the production numbers will deliver this level of production in the ramp up. It seems to be very tight lipped on this. Is boythorpe an employee of WRES. He is indicating a lower level for the Jan - March period. Is this reliable information.
I am also aware that this new mine has unknown costs and margins. Have I missed some numbers for this.

It looks like I may have been a day late and a dollar short with my researching. I am seeking clarification on the Tungsten price. Is it 80% of 80%. Mr Masterman said 200T = $3m. ($15000/T) Mogwhy said its was a higher figure ($19000/T, Kalan seemed to say that it was what Mr Masterman had said.
I I like that this placing is not additional debt, and that it was at a premium at any recent share price in the last few months as the dilutionary effect does not affect me as I am not currently a shareholder., but need some clarification on the price of the product.

Yes Mogwhy, the debt refinancing will be important.
He says in the interview 200t is $3m revenue. That is $15000 per ton. I was calculating on $19000 per ton (80% of $24000) That is roughly 80% of 80% and answers my earlier question I think.
$15000 per ton, makes the math bad. That would be net operating loss of $100k/month. (100t per month production)
Kalan, is this why you think 120t is breakeven

Its just got a bit cheaper too. I did not see the drop while typing.
Its now at a level where every 0.01 drop is a 5% positive ( for me, sorry for the LTHs)

Kalan, thank you. You make a reference to the much smaller numbers for Regua. I see it is a higher grade but cannot see any indicative productions costs or revenue expectations. Based on this I cannot understand how it derisks anything as I cannot see the situation at Regua and what it means. It might decrease the profit to hit a production number