Member Info for gogadget

Tullow will definitely not be a potential farm in partner, they are in the middle of refinancing their bonds and selling assets to raise cash to pay down debt…

TLW should have released a RNS to verify the media speculation today. It seems they tell investors one path but then take another. Are the merging? Refinancing? Seeking a CEO? Who knows. Causing a bit of doubt…

Another rushed merger attempt to avoid bond refinancing?

Opportunity to claw back some losses from oil stocks if timed right, once peaked maybe swap to airlines or other stocks at the right time that are likely to go the opposite direction to oil… think some have boat has been missed for gold and defence stocks with money tied up in oil stocks at depressed prices

Another spike in oil/gas prices on open now Israel has attacked Iran energy facilities.

So the licence has been extended by 5 years? And the agreement is to sell Ghana gas at a lower price than what they wasn’t even paying for before? Has the outstanding £50m been payed?

Gabon payment incoming??? Behaving same way it did on PSA announcement…

Https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/28/new-us-senate-bill-could-wreck-russia-but-damage-eu-economy

Us sanctions

ELAYNA oil tanker enroute to jubilee eta 30th May. 14 day interval between liftings, 910k-960k lifting range 65k - 68.6k bopd. Plus gas.

Massive variations between broker valuations…. You have to bear in mind Tullow touched 40p 12 months ago when RD was talking 120k Boepd from jubilee, company still had Gabon and was talking up FID on Kenya, RD talking up FCF to pay down debt… then quit. So much has changed 12 months.

Hopefully a positive week, gas prices continuing its uptrend, delay on eu 50% tariffs, trump leaning on Russia sanctions.

Self inflicted impairment towards diversification…

That $700m would have been better spent on either buying out a smaller company with producing assets or paying down debt which would have saved $280m in coupon payments.. they tried to suck all out of jubilee with additional wells which has unfortunately increased decline rates.. the 4D results may show there is less oil than expected or it’s migrated needing more costly wells

Is it time to consider production companies that are top end heavy in gas production rather than oil with gas prices fairing better than oil… it seems it’s the cost of oil price that trump is concentrating on keeping down, whereas gas consumption is constantly increasing with more and more being used for electricity generation at gas turbine generation sites.

Oil floats on water, if the perforations of the well casing are set too low down in the reservoir you end up extracting water… to lower the height of the accumulated oil to match the perforations you need to lower water injection and increase gas injection to keep the pressure at the required level. Abit of tweaking to get the right balance.

Tullow need to be able to demonstrate that they can redeem or refinance any new bonds at the end term via the NPV value of jubilee and ten after another 5 years of production, which will lower the 2P reserves significantly over 5 years. Oil price needs to be significantly higher otherwise it will be 5 of coupon payments and no FCF to reduce debt.

Https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Gas prices in 2022 prior to Ukraine invasion was double what they are today… another side effect to lockdowns, furloughs and open check book grants… government induced but not willing to admit it… the EPL is fall back price is far too low. It needs scrapping. Government taxing production at 78%.. then charge over 70p fuel tax at the pump… double taxed.

These trading updates keep creating more mistrust amongst myself the way numbers are being moved around to paint a better picture… RD and RM worked along side each other in previous decision making… Lower oil price for longer keeps upping the risk… lenders usually lower RCF amount and duration to risk forecast, yet RNS states it’s to suit business needs…

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14744453/A-warning-Britain-Brought-knees-crackpot-Net-Zero-obsessed-socialist-government-dystopian-Spain-offers-chilling-vision-possible-future.html

Future picture of UK. Net zero madness, rising immigration and rising unemployment and housing shortage….

When I used to work for a big six energy supplier as a gas and electricity meter fitter, I was on a near daily basis called to attend properties leased by SERCO in the surrounding towns to swap prepayment meters for credit meters with SERCO being the bill payer on behalf of the home office. Majority of UK people usually have limited balances on their prepay meters, say £10-£30. the Serco properties I attended were found to have prepayment meters with maxed out balances at £500. The idea of the credit meters was to do away with constant running around of topping up the prepay meters. On attendance to these properties you would find all the lights switched on unnecessarily, the heating turned up to uncomfortable levels with windows left open… yet the old dear or young family next door were living in energy poverty having to watch their penny's…. Totally unfair…