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Todays uptick shows that debt, bonds and refinancing has been pulling this back, Peel hunt wrote
“The facility "significantly de-risks" Tullow's ability to refinance its 2026 notes, Peel Hunt analysts wrote in a note”
So if Wednesdays trading statement is positive then expect some broker upgrades. Tullow 2025 bond prices spiked after todays news.
High oil prices having little effect on share price. SP headed south after tying in to the 10.25% bond. The share price is negatively affected by debt associated with high interest rates, bond markets volatility and lack cash flowing into the markets. All government created issues. On top of that there’s 2 wars active right now. Since the bond buy back auction the bonds have recovered substantially in value which is counter effective as the debt is now dearer to buy back the large proportion outstanding.
At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 95,900 bopd gross during the quarter, ~32% higher compared to the previous quarter.
Three producer wells were brought online during the third quarter, taking gross field production up to around 100,000 bopd.
Post quarter-end, two water injection wells, which were delayed due to operational issues, were brought online. This delay coupled with higher than anticipated downtime of the water injection pumps within the quarter, resulted in a slower ramp-up in Jubilee production. This is expected to result in one Jubilee cargo lifting originally planned for Kosmos in the fourth quarter of 2023, being deferred into early 2024.
My calculations Tullow should be currently producing around 64kbopd which is significantly more than the 53kbopd 1H 2023. 2021 was 59.2kboepd, 2022 was 61.1kboepd. Oil price strongly higher than 2021 and currently lower debt and hedges. 2021 share price reached mid 60’s.
Tullow needs the 2 additional wells at jubilee online ASAP to capitalise on the higher oil prices while they are here, year end is fast approaching. Any excess cash needs to be used to buy back bonds at a discount while they can as the price has been racing north since the last buy back and won’t be long till they are on par to the initial price.
I have a feeling the shorters also trade Tullow, knowing that any spike will be transient and will be pulled back again due to the negative pull of the shorts. In the long run trading they make more than the loss on the short. Just my opinion though.
Frustration of delays and broken time frames, still waiting for those additional wells to come online, the other issue is there is worldwide issues developing very fast right now, so when these “share price catalysts” finally do materialise they may have little effect due worldwide worry of war and recessions.
Would be better if they paid more attention to the forward production forecasting in the updates rather than us working it out. The frustrating thing is oil went to $95, the share price drifted down, oil falls a few percent in the day, the share price goes down. Recession talk share price goes down, everything pulls it down
My patience has completely run out now and frustrated to still be stuck in the red, where’s the “multiple share price catalysts” we were promised and “H2 2023 is the year the markets stop worrying about the debt”.. I’m beginning to believe this companies is run by the Conservative party..
Racksonracks I’m going of what’s stated in this article “into the first quarter of next year”
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/epra-hires-consultants-to-review-tullow-s-oil-plan--4367830?view=htmlamp
Obviously the EPRA are incompetent in their position, they have sat on this for 6 months and now kicking the can down the road potentially another 6 1/2 months seeking advisors help until the end of Q1 2024, then the FDP Has to be approved by parliament. Really disappointed with this as I was expecting September to be the big one.. after all this it may still not be approved… it’s likely crap like this incompetence why the other partners walked. P1ssed off…
Another delay by EPRA
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/epra-hires-consultants-to-review-tullow-s-oil-plan--4367830?view=htmlamp
Ah yes Persian trader thanks, H2 average 65K so likely a little higher towards the end of H2 to make the average. So 65k barrels at $90+, say no more… always a history of drops on results day, the futures looking brighter than it has for a long time.
Persian trader where did you get the info of 65k (current production) I’ve listened to most of the presentation but may have missed this info..
To me todays drop was based on yesterdays data and not reflecting todays and tomorrows future progress.