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Jubilee 39600 net to Tullow for calculated @ 12 weeks based on Kosmos update

Kos update tomorrow

Some media articles did mention alternatively to bidding for BP, shell were considering smaller companies

Price prediction end of week following interest rate cut 1.40?

Hard to judge how oilers will react in the next few weeks… downwards pressure from opec and active tariffs, then upwards pressure fro tariff negotiations

More oil price pain coming

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-make-another-accelerated-oil-output-hike-june-sources-say-2025-05-03/

Strong performance reported by persimmon this morning…. Boost to house builders sector

The current EPL needs withdrawing… the oil gas prices now at low levels and less at risk of price shocks with supplies less reliant on Russia etc and possibility of war de-escalation very near term.. it’s a tax grab on fossil fuels to fund millibands projects… all these medium/large scale EV charging sites that have very few customers.. they cost a fortune to install, they use that much power they need their own distribution substation connected to the HV network to drop from 11Kv/6.6kv to 415v. Employers now avoiding EV company vehicles due to wasted company time charging them.

The orange American man is causing far too much market uncertainty…. is the White House now just a circus full of clowns….

A lot of things need to fall into place here before end of June with oil where it is will cause alarm on near term liquidity covenant. Why is it that country leaders all complain energy is too dear for consumers… it’s not! It’s the damn taxes/levy’s/green taxes they put on top to fund nonsense… I was at a service station today and counted 18 EV chargers. Only 1 was in use by some lonely guy in his Tesla..

I don’t think bond refinancing will take place in H1, with oil where it is and knocking on the door of low case scenario…. OPEC and other countries need to ignore trumps demands, he should not be able to dictate worldwide oil prices. OPEC should cut production to show him who has all the levers in oil price

Just to complicate things and cannot rely on 1 lifting for guidance.. the FPSO Kwame Nkrumah has a capacity of 1.6M barrels, therefore could have excess oil left behind by new vitality. the frequency of the next lifting will give better guidance

Kbopd

Jubilee was due to restart 10th April. Oil tanker new vitality arrived 21st April, left 23rd April. 2 days loading. Usual lifting capacity is circa 950K barrels. Production over 11-13 days = 73 - 86 Knopd.

After Kosmos update may be able to get a better picture on production.. power and water injection upgrades were stated to “stabilise decline” rather than increase production.. the 2 wells drilled in Q3 are to boost production.. the 2025 guidance is a bit misleading on reserves as both 2P and 2C from Gabon have been included yet the statement says it’s being sold. The Gabon bonding head of terms is also vague and my understanding is it can ultimately be cancelled albeit with penalties. The signed purchase and sale agreement is the important one.

Https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/26/middleeast/iran-bandar-abbas-port-explosion-intl

Is this sabotage to tighten the screw on Iran. Chemicals being reported as missile fuel

Supercooper that is what caught my attention.. it appears the production guidance includes Gabon. But Gabon was already being sold? Or is the 50k-55k in anticipation or production increase from Jubilee. Latest production data required asap

Kosmos financials predicting jubilee 2025 production to be 70k - 76k gross. 27k - 29k net to Tullow? Very different to Tullows (operators) prediction

Just found this regarding windfall tax…

The ESIM disapplies EPL when both average oil and gas prices over two successive quarters meet or fall below $71.40/barrel for oil and £0.54 per therm for gas.

What is the EPL’s/windfall tax floor price? Has this now been triggered hence the parliamentary discussion? Can’t find any data on the value…