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Oil price support
https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/opec-continues-cuts-and-russias-surprise-move-shifting-dynamics-in-global-oil-markets-3364777
The lack of communication from the business is frustrating. There’s very little to nothing between trading statements and half yearly results.
I would sack the head of corporate affairs/communications officer, whatever you want to call them..
Investors deserve regular updates to make regular decisions on where to invest their cash..
we own a share in the company..
Things I want to know on Wednesday
Progress of the tax dispute
Glencore lending facility terms and conditions
More accurate production guidance
Update on Kenya
Future plans on bond reductions
Future Plans to grow the business
Capital markets day scheduled
What the business plans to do about the terrible share price performance.
The current communications is just not good enough.
I wouldn’t consider the $10M per annum Kenya capex allocation “burning into capex” or the cost of production per barrel increasing significantly now the production plans have increased from 70k barrels per day to 120k barrels per day but quite the opposite.
Https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
Jmax in certainly doesn’t drift sidewards over many years
If not profitable it would not be pursued.
Based on the low figures of recoverable reserves
460m barrels @ $80= $36.8B recoverable
120k barrels per day @ $80 = $3.504B per annum revenue.
Plus there are unexplored areas within Turkana.
FDP pipeline was increased from 70k barrels per day to 120k barrels per day to speed up pay back to temp farm in partners.
If development costs of the pipeline and wells comes to $6B, there’s $30.8B minus operating fees and taxes to make a profit from.
Oil prices with creep up over the coming years along side general inflation.
The world needs fossil fuels for many decades to keep up with energy demand along side the green energy transition.
Yes Kenya is a must and needs to happen..
Tullow along side Harbour in the top 100 shorted FTSE stocks. Harbour share price has been pulled back to pre wintershall announcement. Many Uk oilers pulled back regardless of good news.
2023 production 63 kboepd
57 kboepd (oil) 6 kboepd (gas)
2024 production forecasts 62-68 kboepd
62 @ 55 kboepd (oil) 7 kboepd. 1.59% decrease
68 @ 61 kboepd (oil) 7 kboepd. 7.9% increase
Other factors to consider
Decrease in hedges
Kenya FID
Favourable Ghana Tax resolution
Interest rate cut optimism.
Share price is depressed on the basis that no positive factors will take place.