Member Info for GodofHellfire

Well played beardozer. This is exactly the point. What are the chances of them succeeding with each of the major things required to lift the share price?

1. MRE - this will happen. The evidence they are providing suggests it will be considerabl enough in size to get interest from mid tiers. The MRE will also cause a $1m payment which will keep the company funded.

2. They need a dig licence. Yes this is slow but both Oriole and Cameroon want and need it. It will happen.

3. Will the gold extraction be viable. Everything suggests it would be and that's very much something a geologist could tell you. Our geologists aren't bothered and there's already a precedent in Africa for the same metallurgy.

3. Lansted - they will be gone very soon.

Where is the bad news? Tell me this won't come good. Yes there needs to be bigger buyers, but they're waiting for the above to play out. Pressure on these 3 things. If you don't believe, please please sell

"I bet the share is going to go down". Bet sells their stake at an opportune news moment and sells multiple times to influence downward pressure. Picks up spreadbet winnings

One interesting thing I discovered is that Spread Betting accounts make up enough to be TR1 worthy, which explains everything when it comes to the up and down fluctuations

5 Bottom line – is the poster “right”?

Yes – Lack of institutional ownership and the share-price malaise are real; Lanstead and serial placings have hurt sentiment; Cameroon’s first-mover risk and refractory metallurgy mean a higher discount rate.

But – The post ignores:

The very rapid discovery curve at Mbe (soil anomaly → >1 Moz target inside two field seasons);

BCM’s earn-in funding, which removes near-term dilution for drilling;

Comparable sub-1 g/t pits elsewhere that became profitable once scale and recovery options were demonstrated.

For the share price to re-rate Oriole must now:

1. Deliver the Q4-2025 MRE firmly in, or above, the 1 Moz middle of the Exploration-Target range and show a realistic recovery route (>80 % total Au).

2. Secure a credible funding or JV path beyond BCM to carry the capex burden (e.g. an African mid-tier producer or commodity‐royalty group).

3. Clarify the Cameroon mining‐convention & surface-rights framework, so institutional investors can model sovereign risk.

If they achieve those three, the “no serious investors” criticism will melt away; if not, the poster’s scepticism will continue to cap the share price.

4 “1–3 m intercepts can’t make a mine” – a fair criticism?

Not really. Early holes in a porphyry or sheeted-vein system often hit stringers at the margins. What matters is:

Vertical continuity – Mbe now tracks veins for 250–300 m down-dip.

Bulked-out envelopes – several 20–80 m widths @ 0.7–1.4 g/t have already been reported. Those will carry the tonnage, the 1 m @ 9 g/t pods provide grade-boosting sweeteners.

Examples of West-African open pits built on similar metrics:

Mine (operator) Head grade start-up ROM throughput Comment

Boungou (Endeavour/Semafo) 1.2 g/t 2.2 Mtpa Non-refractory; capex US $232 m

Houndé (Endeavour) 1.4 g/t 3 Mtpa Free-milling; capex US $328 m

Kobada (Allied Gold BFS 2021) 0.9 g/t 4 Mtpa Oxide/free-milling

Those are soft-oxide ores; if Mbe proves refractory, capex will indeed be higher. But until full metallurgical variability tests are run, discounting the project to zero is premature.

3 Has management destroyed value through dilution & salaries?

Share count: ~9.9 bn shares in issue versus ~700 m in 2017 – a fact of life for exploration juniors that drill but have no production cash-flow.

Board pay: c. £530 k/yr total cash cost (CEO ~£190 k, FD ~£150 k, two NEDs) is not extreme versus AIM peers of similar market caps; e.g. Panthera, Cora, Xtract all spend £450–700 k. What stings holders is not the quantum but the lack of share-price uplift to “pay” for it.

Project progress:

Senegal – admittedly slow; Faré South MRE (155 koz) + July-2025 0.38–0.65 Moz Exploration Target is incremental, not transformational.

Cameroon – in contrast, the team moved Mbe from soils (2023) to >5.5 km of core, >250 intercepts and a 1 Moz-scale Exploration Target in 18 months. That is productive exploration spend, albeit still early stage.

2 Why hasn’t the “smart money” come in yet?

Factor How it hurts the investment case today

Jurisdiction risk Cameroon has zero producing gold mines. Bigger funds wait until mining convention terms, fiscal rules and reliable power/logistics are clear.

Project stage Mbe & Bibemi are exploration stories. Even after the July 2025 Exploration Target (0.8 – 1.3 Moz @ 0.77–0.95 g/t), investors know that converting that to a JORC Resource, then PEA/PFS, will take 2–3 yrs minimum.

Head grades & metallurgy Sub-1 g/t open-pit projects are viable (see Endeavour — Houndé 1.4 g/t, Resolute — Syama open pit 1.2 g/t), but refractory telluride ore usually demands POX/Albion-style circuits. Funds will discount heavily until a flowsheet and indicative capex/OPEX are in hand.

Funding structure The 2023 Lanstead equity-swap was not a toxic convertible, but it did drip cheap stock into the market for 24 months. That constant supply has capped rallies and put technical traders in control.

Capital intensity BCM is earning in US $8 m across the two Cameroon licences. That’s welcome, but a scout/maiden programme only. Institutions know Oriole will have to raise a big round (or farm out again) to move to PFS.

AIM micro-cap sentiment Gold juniors outside North America have traded at deep discounts since late-2021 despite the gold price rally. ORR’s ~£6 m mkt-cap puts it in the “too small / too illiquid” bucket for many resource funds.

1 Is it true there are “no material shareholders”?

Mostly, yes. The only TR-1 filings above 3 % in the past two years have been:

Lanstead Capital – c. 9 % (structured equity swap, now largely run off)

Spread-bet/CFD custodians that hold on behalf of retail clients.

No UK institutional resource funds, no large African-focused private equity, and (since Newmont backed out in 2017) no mid-tier producers on the register. That’s a real signal that specialist money is still on the sidelines.

Bikwik, my post there was actually a rebuttal to other negative posts, if you read it properly.

The facts are apparently the facts, whether you or I like it or not.

I'm not an expert, I just simply use the same tools that other traders/investors use to make decisions, simply because I am not qualified.

I'm a LTH and an insatiable optimist, but I'm also a realist and I'm pragmatic.

A flow sheet cost curve

Short-interval hits ≠ “too small to mine”

The objection mixes two different issues:

Issue What matters in reality

Individual assay widths (e.g. 1 – 3 m at 2–9 g/t Au) Mines are not designed hole-by-hole; an MRE block model averages grades into 10 m, 20 m or 25 m blocks. Narrow high-grade veins often sit inside broader haloes of 0.4–1.0 g/t that carry most of the tonnage. When the block model is constrained by an open-pit shell, what counts is the average diluted grade of each block versus strip-ratio and recovery.

Grade threshold for a new open pit In West Africa over the last decade, bulk-tonnage refractory projects went ahead at 0.6 – 1.2 g/t Au provided: 1) scale was ≥ 1.5 Moz, 2) metallurgical recovery ≥ 80 %, 3) strip ratio reasonable.

Examples:

• Boungou (Semafo, BF, 2017 start-up): 12 Mt @ 1.4 g/t (reserve grade) – but half the ounces sat in 2–5 m wide lenses.

• Sanbrado (West African Resources, BF, 2020): open-pit reserve 0.9 g/t, with many 1–3 m high-grade shoots.

• Kiaka (B2Gold, BF, in build): 2.3 Moz reserve @ 0.86 g/t, POX flowsheet.

How does Mbe stack up right now?

Parameter (MB01-S only, July ‘25 Exploration Target) Current status Typical “go” number for African bulk pits

Contained ounces (mid-case) ~1.1 Moz at 0.86 g/t to only 200 m depth and before MB01-N drilling 1–1.5 Moz minimum

Intercept style Multiple 1–3 m veins grading 2–10 g/t inside 5–30 m zones at 0.4–1.0 g/t Similar to Boungou, Sanbrado, Ahafo South pits

Metallurgy Refractory telluride/pyrite; POX or Albion indicated, ~67 % recovery by CIL alone POX projects (Syama, Kiaka) work at 83–90 % recovery after oxidation

Strip ratio Yet to be modelled – shallow mineralisation (< 50 m) helps < 6:1 preferred

At this early stage Mbe still needs:

infill + MB01-N drilling to lift ounces above ~1.5 Moz;

a scoping‐level metallurgical flow-sheet showing ≥ 85 % overall recovery;

preliminary pit optimisation to prove a competitive strip ratio.

Why the Phase-1 drill programme was enlarged

Forge’s geostatistics flagged that the western 1,000 ppb soil anomaly is not yet inside the domain model. Shifting a few holes west and adding metres is standard practice to avoid an “under-cooked” maiden MRE. It does not imply the system is shrinking; it means they are chasing the edges to avoid leaving convertible ounces off the table.

Bottom line

No, mines are not built just on 1 m‐wide intercepts – but those veins, repeated every few metres in a porphyry package, can deliver an economic diluted grade once modelled.

Yes, a refractory flowsheet is CAPEX-heavier, so Mbe will ultimately need multi-million-ounce scale or a robust gold price to clear the investment hurdle.

At 0.86 g/t and ~1 Moz today, Mbe sits in the same grade/width envelope that has already supported mine builds in Burkina Faso, Mali and Ghana – it just isn’t big enough yet and still lacks a

So if you draw a line at the pivot highs and another at the pivot lows going back to 2023, you don't see a downward wedge?

A confirmed breakout from a bullish falling wedge 18 months in the making

To summarise on this, when the MRE is published, and it is over 1m oz, the mid tiers and majors from all over the world will start entertaining discussions. By this point, there will be no Lanstead and a bonus payment of $1m which will mean there is no chance of a placing. Meanwhile the drilling and exploration continues on into MBE north and we will start to get a view of the government situation to get a licence to dig.

The plan and news is only positive from here on in.

JORC Classified

The payment comes with Joe classified, not jorc exploration target.

It doesn't qualify.....yet

It would apply if the MRE states over 1m Oz

@bikwik.....BCM paid $4m twice, MBE only based on trenching

It sounds to me that there are two things that will unlock the share price.

1. MBE MRE confirming with more confidence of what is in the ground and what can be implied elsewhere across the licences as a result.

2. A mining convention. They need to be bashing down the door of the government every single day to get sign off to dig. That will derisk Cameroon as a country. Everything else is a bonus, but these things are the true catalysts in my view.

I wish there wouldn't be all the monotonous droning about salaries and Landstead and all that "operational" stuff. Strategically, the business needs to get these two things, come hell or high water, as fast as humanly possible.

I don't understand why you think 1m Oz was on people's minds? I think you'll find investors largely go on facts.

Traders use paid versions of chatgpt for research so you can understand their intentions by the viewpoints it gives

You must be a barrel of laughs at a dinner party haha

“Grade too low” 0.8-1.0 g/t is industry-standard for large West-African pits; grade retains well at higher cut-offs.

“Metallurgy too complex” POX/BIOX/Albion are proven, capex scales with plant size; 80 %+ recovery achievable.

“New jurisdiction risk” Cameroon is virgin for gold but stable, franc-zone country; Government backing first mover. Companies have built BIOX/POX plants in harder places (Burkina, DRC).

“Big players won’t look” 1-1.3 Moz open-pit at sub-US$200/oz capex has drawn takeovers before (Namdini, Roxgold Séguéla).

Conclusion: the new ET shows Mbe is already in the size-and-grade window that has motivated mid-tier take-outs elsewhere. Metallurgy adds capex, but not beyond industry precedent, and Cameroon’s first-mover advantage can offset that. Dismissing the project on grade/metallurgy alone ignores half the West-African success stories of the past decade.