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You are probably right Hawker, though I'd say the projected growth rates (CAR spoke of them in terms of years going forward in some segments) might make the shares a bargain today at these prices ....... news from ATML could come at anytime, especially if they are underway w/manufacturing and cost changes, as has been rumored and even mentioned today in CAR's results. Printed electronics underway at CIT now as well ... some of this is indeed for the back burner but some of it is happening now ..... repeated they have no funding needs, growth expected to continues, pays an increasing dividend, and trading at a p/e just under 20 ...... these are the positives and the negatives (mainly Xsense market issues) fully baked in, IMO ...... today confirmed all of this so that is why I remain surprised at the lack of movement int he stock.
The share price action can't be related to the results - Agree w/Hawker, there is simply a big seller(s) using this to get out. Leaving aside Xsense - which is still a ways off from being a complete failure - the rest of the company is humming along nicely and in good shape, with an emerging printed electronics story in CIT to supplement whatever eventually arrives via Xsense ............... this is all a long way from the CAR hype story when the shares were in the 4's but they have gone down 75% since then which more than 'adjusts' for the Xsense short-fall in potential and timings ......... still think the shares represent good value here and there's enough growth in the story for them to get back into the 2's especially once CIT shows additional traction AND believe there will be an Xsense win that matters one day in the next 6-12 months, if not a few of them. IMO the bad news is baked in and behind us as CAR works with ATML to fix costs/manufacturing and OEMs have to finally make a decision on future product builds.
CAR described the market opportunity for Xsense type of touch as 'enormous' ..... even with halving margins and increasing competition, there is no doubt IMO that Xsense will fix its cost base and be a part of this market for years to come .... their market share may not be the largest due to competitors, their pricing/margins may not always be the best, but they will own a chunk of it, especially with the Corning and ATML partnerships .... none of that is in today's stock price, nor the long term potential for printed electronics.
Good results IMO and good to hear there's movement in CIT both in Xsense and printed electronics. Expected more in terms of stock price movement based on today - this may not be a fast growth company, but all of that has been removed from the valuation in the drop for the 4's to the current 1's. That said it is certainly a slow growth company with a solid opportunity, growth markets ahead, increasing dividend and in overall good shape.
Affinitywarrior posted this last night but I can't get the Chinese translation to work in Chrome - looks like ATML might be underway with something >>>>>>>>>>>>>> afinitywarrior • XSense Chinese news leak ""It is understood that about ten touch panel module plant is working with Atmel to discuss cooperation; and Taiwan, have been a mass production expected in the second half." This is from a Chinese Website. Google: "Atmel/康宁合力 打造超薄多点触控屏幕" Then translate the page using Google Chrome.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.https://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=f18a6d1c-de4b-3051-99de-8729a6637b42&tid=1402014212369-075c75d0-da68-4370-a121-baa16bec80b6&tls=la%2Cd%2C0%2C3
Thx Lindon - lets hope CAR's future isn't only dependent on the success of Xsense, which already appears to be a flop in many ways no matter what Plan B ATML decide to enact to try and save the situation. June 10 might provide some insight into what else CAR thinks they can do with CIT in addition to Xsense & where they see new business opportunities for CIT. That along with the rest of CAR, which is doing well, might be enought to keep the story going for the stock even if Xsense has largely turned out to be a failure .... and maybe there's still a chance that the Corning partnership turns into something. Down but not out, I guess is how I'd assess CAR at the moment! GLA
hi Lindon - was there some presentation today that your post is referring to? Cant find anything, so any info appreciated. The more time that goes by & info emerges, the more I am of the opinion that you are very correct when you say it is mostly game over for Xsense as a market leading, huge winner in the consumer tech device space. At the same time, ATML & Corning are 2 very strong forces in the market. This may not change the outcome but perhaps means there is some future for Xsense in the marketplace as they must be able to leverage this technology with some vendors ---- I am still trying to understand EXACTLY what ATML needs to do help Xsense gain traction. DO they have fixable cost structures/manufacturing that they can change and become competitive on a cost basis? IS their technology still relevant with the new emerging technologies? Hopefully the answer is 'yes' to both of these, but what is your take?
Thx Lindon, good point. I just thought that if this was a big Xsense moment, ATML would be there ------ I wonder what the device could be via Corning if it's not Surface Pro v3, any thoughts? Is Corning in HP or Asus existing Xsense models already? ta.
Lindon - thanks as always for your posts - v. interesting. Agree the other markets in printed electronics are interesting potential and getting less excited about Xsense, though believe CAR needs some Xsense wins and traction no matter what else it has going on ... GLA
Hi Lindon - FlatFrog certainly looks interesting --- I can't conclude much other than that as far as ATML/Xsense is concerned, competition and price pressures are appearing all around. That said, if Xsense can find a place, preferrably a leading place, in the market then the implications for CAR shares are good. Are you a believer in any kind of decent future for CAR/Xsense (assuming they work out the cost issues)?
Lindon - so given O-film's position, why wouldn't ATML just admit defeat and move on from Xsense & CAR if O-film has everyone so badly beaten on costs (and assuming they are in the Pro v3)? Can ATML fix these cost issues? Who has the best product for the market? I can't find this info out easily but suspect there's more to the story .... if the stock was moving up in anticipation of June 3/4 product announcements, there's no point, as no Xsense wins have been announced nor products showcasing announced in the past 48 hours. Again, suspect there is more to the story and things in nascent early stages. All conjecture and continue to think the next meaningful date will be ATML's July earnings call for more info ... not even sure what emerges on June 10 other than news about the rest of CAR.
Can't find much info about them or their product. There is little PR about device wins or technology partnerships (from what small effort I have put into looking). Corning partnered w/Xsense, not O-film. Intel's touch presentations references ATML/Xsense data, not O-film data (even if Intel calls O-film an '800 pound gorilla'). IT was Xsense that got special recognition as a revolutionary product at this year's CES, not O-film ------------ What's the point? SImply that for all the talk, the available data suggests ATML/Xsense are the real deal in the industry. If O-film have found a cheaper way to do this, I suspect the quality/reliability might not be there, or maybe I am just wrong - thoguths anyone?
QB - agree with your take on the stock price ... it has been driven down to the point whrer it basically assigns no value to CIT. At this price you are getting a profitable, dividend-paying, 17 P/E ratio equity for less that 1x annual revenue and CIT for free (along with the sunk CIT costs, of course, but still) ------- The recently posted Intel presentation (thanks Lindon) incudes 5+ pages of data sourced from ATML, so clearly they (Intel) take Xsense seriosuly as a player in the industry enough to reference ATML as part of their research and assessemnt. Also striking were the comments about how early in the process this transition to ITO replacement is, but also how fast it was happening. This all tells me that Xsense is not dead on arrival and it is too early to make big decisions about who will be the big winners. Lastly, ATML also have a partnership with Corning, so CAR is associated with the right groupr of tech players, IMO ----- HAve to diagree with the analogy to coffee, however. In this case, quality DOES matter - hugely - along with price and ability to deliver on time and to scale. ATML/Xsense appear to check out well in all these regards, with the exception of price/costs ... let's hope they fix this ASAP and close some deals already!
Lindon, thanks for posting this - something a bit more detailed and technical woud have been nice, but this will do ... seriously, I defy anyone to get through that document :) A quick scan led me to the conclusion that we are in very, very early days and this is still very emerging nascent technology. IMO, there's still time for Xsense & the winners are long from being determined; Xsense may well end up sharing with a few others, but first it must manage to make a market for itself, GLA
QBArtist - I think the point Lindon is making is that it is showtime for Xsense in the computer industry, but agree a full write-off is a bit doomsday because there are other markets for CIT outside the comuputer industry (though that is the main one and the most exciting one). I am more concerned that Xsense fails to have even a mention in the recent INTEL Touch presentation (thanks Lindon for posting that link).
Lindon ... I see. Have been perplexed from the date of release regarding Surface Pro 3.o & Xsense (as you know, and as we all are). I see what you mean, this would be the time for them to reveal it, unless there's another solution - the existence of which would not bode well for CIT/Xsense. There seems to be a lot of competition emerging in this space but CIT has years of development and in aprtnership w/ATML and Corning, so IMO there is still some potential here, regardless with what emerges competitively. That said it all may be very far from what was anticipated evn 6 months ago ... honestly, am just trying to make sense of it all and locate any clues along the way. No one is releasing ANY info due to competitive reasons, so it is very hard to know for sure who is using what technologies at the moment.
Lindon - it may just be a prototype they show (?) - IMO we have to take CAR at its' 1/5/2014 word when they said no new awards and left CIT forecasts unchanged at essentially nothing. The share price has already removed all of CIT so IMO, there is no more to take out on disappoinments - but no one should be disappointed when nothing new has been forecast and a month later they have nothing new (if you follow) ..... obviously Xsense in the coomputing marketplace is the high profile, exciting stuff, but there are other markets for CIT and still time for Xsense to find its' footing with OEMs .... guess I don't put so much importance on this June conference/earnings release based on the 1/5/2014 news. More important is how CIT can get a ramp to £25M - £50M annual revenues (hopefully more) in all available markets combined. It still appears doable but might take a few years ... that's just IMO at £1.10 a share ...