Member Info for GMAN12

Just noticed the short/hedge has been reduced under the radar. Usually a good sign. Revenue forecast to be down £60m (4.5%) less exits at H1. Cost reductions exceed that which should provide greater profitability.

Cancellation of the share premium account is signalling a dividend in the future but when is debatable. Let's see but with TCV at £969m for 5 months that bodes reasonably well in future revenues.

GLA

Try Companies House (its a Ltd co) or the annual report

@Trenners, I believe those figures are operating profit (adj) or Ebitda and not PBT. The one thing that stood out for me was the cash outflow forecasted range of £45-£65m which includes £55m of the cost reduction programme weighted in H1.

That to me suggests ongoing operations now are cash flow neutral to minimally positive end of 2025. I don't see £7.50 upwards possible til late 2026 unless they start beating analyst consensus across the board in Revenue, PBT & FCF early.

I'm not expecting a dividend til YE at the earliest but to me this is the other signal of confidence that would significantly push the SP.

@Kford, its most likely to identify a unique characteristic of a poster who has multiple accounts to make it look original/unique.

*** p not % ***

As I see it they are on target with their analyst consensus according to their guidance so far. If you look at the page on CPIs Web page that shows PBT £58m this year. FCF negative £65m. They've guided the same bracket for FCF this year & FCF positive from this YE. There's still an additional £65m of cost savings anticipated in H2 (costs paid for by H1). I believe the proceeds from last years business exits haven't been used to further reduce debt but to reinvest in AI amongst other areas.

I don't see why they would postpone it into 2027 a 1-2% dividend equates to £1.4m - £2.8m. Whether there is sufficient confidence to announce it H1 or not is debatable. But I would think YE will be the latest. I also believe this was a factor in deciding the reverse split to simplify matters. In old money the same divi would have been 0.08 - 0.16p or thereabouts.

I know it's far from accurate. its just been the trend at the moment, which is also on relatively low volumes.

Observation that's all. It's not normally that one sided and a stable SP for a prolonged period.

Sells vs Buys have been greater for nearly 3 weeks now (excluding UT). Volumes been low also so happy this has held the current range. Don't think it will move much until H1 date either way. Worldquant still have up to 670k shares to buy back and reduce/close. That might be the interesting part prior to results.

Well there's another account which occasionally posts the same thing verbatim on another share within 30mins. Coincidence?

So long as you get a win I don't suppose it matters. Most times it's out of your hands, Ukraine/Trump/Reeves/Truss moments. I'd love a bit of stability so any research you do isn't blown out of the water via a reckless UK or World event.

@Kipper, quite sure AIM and maybe others are not too far away/still here 😁. Each to their own and good luck to them. I'm med/long too however I have taken profits in the past and bailed to buy back in later once the panic was over on a couple of slides down in the last 4 years.

Seen what you done there Kipper9 😁

Could be the direction Capita have adopted & invested in. From the update.

"In recent months, client interest in agentic AI1 solutions has grown exponentially. We are reinvesting a portion of our efficiency savings into new technology solutions, particularly those underpinned by AI and we are focused on bringing these technology solutions to more clients. I’m pleased to see the positive response and impact our new AI solutions are having and look forward to sharing more detail at our H1 2025 results presentation on 5 August.”

FCF guidance will be the main driver but I think where the cost reductions have impacted will also be a major factor especially in contact centres as that is still an area of concern regarding profitability.

It was good to see the RNS with H1 24 re statement recently for comparison via the new reporting structure.

Agree but you missed the point that the monthly jump wasn't down to that primarily and without it would most likely be flat or thereabouts looking at the ONS data. Labour are a shambles but then again seen it from both sides for far too long.

Not sure you can blame Labour for this one (not this time anyway). Mainly down to transport/fuel.

The TU would suggest the same with only a couple announced via RNS but the following announced in June.

"In the five months to 31 May, the Group won contracts with a Total Contract Value (TCV) of £969m, up 24% from the same period in 2024, with year to date TCV won up over 70% in Capita Public Service which more than offset the 49% reduction in TCV won in the Contact Centre business"

Got a dividend elsewhere so re-invested here.

There is one sticking point here and that's Contact Centres. I'll be interested to see if they've balanced/improved it's profitability vs H1 2024 against a backdrop of falling TCV won.

They're well ahead of the H1 2024 target of £160m savings by June 2025 with more to come. As you say no change to guidance so don't envisage any nasty surprises.

@Kipper9 its to be expected. Took advantage of the drop to add a small chunk.

Worldquant reducing again? They've 600k+ to buy back if they want to close fully before H1 results