Member Info for GLR1990

Thought this would have shot up a bit more today, given the environment

1) you have a 30% stake in an asset that is up for IPO at a valuation of $92m (indirect) which is around 1.49p per share

2) the asset contains an estimated 13 billion barrels of O+G

3) Gas prices are up 114% in the last week

4) Oil Prices are up 33-40% in the last week

Therefore... surely the IPO does even better than expected?

Although the markets are rarely this predictable...

Drop you got to think its a really bad market and most people are just happy to have some profit to actually take, most of their stocks have been hammered in the last few days, a 10-20% win feels like a jackpot.

There could also be some selling in fear of the placing shares hitting the market tomorrow, but over the last few sessions we've seen some gigantic buys and there weren't any warrants attached so id assume most of it has been forward sold and is already in the market.

The investment case has been strengthened considerably in the last few days, beyond anything HEX could have ever forecasted.

Massive news just out

Qatar wont be back online for 2 weeks, and will take a further 2 weeks to ramp up

Helium is about to become the worlds most crucial short term commodity

Here we go.

Oh crap this is way worse than anyone expected

So thats two weeks from decision to turn it back on, and another 2 weeks to get to full capacity with no issues

Massive implications now to the AI industry as well as supply could run out

WOW

Agree BBN and thanks for your posts on the matter, very informative

Two drone strikes on Ras Laffan has caused a 100% increase in natural gas prices

Let that sink in for a minute

Tens of thousands of drones have gone back and forth between Israel and iran, battles have raged for weeks if not months, and yet two single drone strikes have caused a bigger economic disaster to the entire world than tens of thousands in battle, what a massive liability that is, and what a huge amount of power and control Iran has because western supply chains are so reliant (not just west but the world) on this very important piece of infrastructure and land.

Think this could have a major shock on the HE market, I suspect if you are an OEM you may want more than one supplier now vs perhaps a single Qatar based supplier, I know it goes from Qatar into companies like Uniper etc, but even then Uniper might start looking at sourcing from elsewhere and paying a premium for the safety and security of EX ME HE assets. (ex middle eastern helium)

Very interesting market that has been completely overlooked but is now really hotting up in investor circles. At the end of the day this is the best position HEX could ever be in

- massive supply issues (30% of global production halted)

- massive supply issues x2 (strait of hormuz blocked / dangerous)

- massive supply issues x3 (Grade A helium used in semi conductor manufacturing, 35-40% of this comes from Qatar)

- producing at the perfect time

- Just raised funds so no danger of a discounted placing, free runway into growth

- Not signed any LT deals so exposure is pure upside

Mitigatoin

- Suppliers do have storage, few weeks to months, OEMS in the AI space usually have a couple weeks storage ready

Crunch

- Absolutely ZERO substitute, for nat gas you can use wind solar hydro etc but for helium in semi conductor manufacturing there is NO replacement it is absolutely crucial

Current situation: blue alert

Storage mitigates immediate risk, but if this prolongs for a couple of weeks and the strait becomes block or bottlenecked then we will see AI helium headilines next week

Project vault IMHO now a certainty to take supply off your hands.

Should take off once the placing clears, will likely be forward sold (e.g. if you hold 100K shares sell 100K at 29p and start again at 25p average) I dont think the issue of shares will have any impact now as the volume has been really strong and thankfully no warrants so even better.

Market is as hot as it gets for Helium. Prices (although un reported) I would suspect are double from last week (albeit most are LT negotiations and offtakes) suspect a few are starting to lock in some significant pricing, very interesting situation. Perhaps a US premium also?

Very logical BB3

But I would stress that PLSR may be in an even better position because most producers have already signed LT deals with fixed pricing, they have shown their hand so to speak.

If you are a concerned OEM, do you not look at taking a stake in PLSR now to secure future supply from 2027 onwards?

Do you also set out terms (like MP materials deal with the US GOVT) regarding RE's which had a price floor of $110USD, MP doesnt produce a thing but its currently the largest RE company in the world. Project vault for instance, does the US now look at having a 6-12 month secure supply of helium? If not, why not?

Spot prices will fluctuate, but the market has been rocked and this isn't a commodity that can be substituted or replaced, as the AI environment evolves OEMS will need to make sure they have security of supply, especially if demand for HE increases even further. Now they may do that by increasing storage perhaps so it lasts more than a couple of weeks or months, but I would also lock up stakes in various HE companies to ensure I have control for future dominance. Either way id be shocked if this didn't rock the HE market into action and make it. a much more focussed commodity, especially in investor circles. If this goes on for a couple of weeks it will be mainstream news. All up in the air at the moment, but the market has been rocked.

1 billion percent

If you are in the semi conductor industry you are going to devalue contracts with Uniper et al if their source is from Qatar vs say made in the US

TSM may divert to Russia

US production may now come with a premium to spot.

Apparently the AI industry has a couple of weeks to max 2 months in storage, so we may not see anything immediate but I suspect perhaps the end of next week it will start making headlines and then there will be an investor rush into stocks like PLSR

The hard part is now where its obvious to you but not 99% of the market, but some helium stocks are starting to move.

Interesting

So anyone who signed a LT deal last week will be kicking themselves (unless you are the buyer)

And anyone who is negotiating right now will have all the cards? (Pulsar?)

Also came across this

https://www.uniper.energy/news/uniper-signs-long-term-helium-supply-agreement-with-qatarenergy

How do we find out the helium price, doesnt seem to be reported anywhere?

This just seems to be going higher and higher and I dont see how if Ras Laffan is 20% of global NATGAS and 20% of Global Helium how Helium isnt up perhaps the same if not more if its a tighter market and you cant just get supply from elsewhere without massive competition????

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Yep only £5m cap so can get manipulated and spike easier than ourselves, kinda wish I had some exposure to that but not chasing up 40%, will add more here because I think we truly have the AI / rare helium link that could be super explosive in the coming days.

The beauty of it is you can both hedge and potentially charge a premium

Lets say it was gold

Spot $5300

Hedge $4800

Premium $6000

Critical AI offtakes / Semi Conductor industries or even the US GOVT (project vault anyone?) will pay a substantial short term premium for security of supply, that way you can hedge production capturing a massive existing gain, but also still realise above spot premiums and take advantage of the any price rise, without affecting your hedge (as your hedge isn't impacted by premiums but only spot)

Truly astonishing position to be in, will be 35p+ before the end of the week I have bet many of my bottom dollars on it.

Nat Gas prices up 114%

Helium production mostly coincides with Nat Gas Deposits

Ras Laffan shut down (30% of global HE production)

Hormuz shut down

Helium an irreplicable commodity for semi conductor manufacturing (AI)

About to get very explosive when the market catches on

Bit of a balanced view here hopefully but the placing for newcomers like me is absolutely fantastic, I had this on my list to buy due to the new macro environment and needed to do a bit more DD, the recent placing means we can now invest with very minimal if any downside and no chance of a future raise, pure runway. I know its annoying for LTH as I've been though a few myself but for attracting the market this is absolutely fantastic, I mean it couldn't be any better for new investors

- literally just cashed up today

- small premium to raise price

- massive ctaalysts globally with ras laffan, nat gas skyrocketing which will mean HE will skyrocket, and potential shutdown of the SOH which could send prices up another 50-100%

- production JUST started

Everyone will be talking about helium before the end of the week.

Incredible, just truly incredible coincidences and being in the right place at the right time, dont think ive ever seen a company so incredibly positioned perhaps since Novacyt in February 2020.

Where's the news on this one folks? I cant see anything?

Iran is a major partner so I suspect there will be some subtle changes

Tr1 now sold 700000 shares...

TR1 seems to be adding more

What a lovely thing to do

We need to hit it big on the RE samples, 2000ppm wont cut the mustard but itll give off a whopping smell of where we should do next and potentially drill

Did you see the Tyttrium news? Its up 3000% (6000% in some markets)

If we hit big with even a small % of Yttrium (The Y in TREO+Y) then we will take off like something that takes off very fast.

What I will say about current pricing, is (and I got this from JT) he said investors (the very large ones) are still not as excited as we are about pricing today vs production 3-4 years away, this was a massive selling point for HyProMag but he did still say it wasnt as easy as you think, people are still very cautious across all markets to price in todays pricing.

I think what is absolutely key now HOWEVER, which is a game changer, is at the current pricing governments will be rushing to lock in supply agreements, the MP price floor of $110KG at the time was amazing, now its cheap! If we can get price floors for just five years, then investors will be MUCH more happy to take the risk.

The amazing part is HyproMag just went into production in the UK and will be producing in Germany in H2, so current pricing now directly impacts our output / margins.

I think its inevitable we reach new ATH's in the coming weeks (80p+)

Dont know why I did the market cap comparison there, as obviously = HyProMag for free, which could be the golden goose (likely is) and worth more than Songwe + Pulawy combined

We are back at that stage where you can buy a massive game changing asset for free. (last time was songwe at 2.5p when we had £6m cash during I believe June or July 2020)